485
FXUS61 KBUF 181019
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
619 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SUNDAY AS THE REGION IS
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LARGE STORM SYSTEM. BENEFICIAL RAIN WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY, WITH AN
OVERALL ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM AND ITS
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
TODAY, AFTER A FEW MORNING SHOWERS, IT WILL DRY OUT WITH INCREASING
SUNSHINE FOR THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME OUT OF THE
SOUTH DURING THE DAY REACHING AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15
MPH. BEHIND THE EARLIER PASSING WARM FRONT, THE REGION WILL BE
FIRMLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE WEST,
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES TODAY REACHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
AFTERNOON VALUES WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO, WHERE EARLIER WAA WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP A BIT
MORE. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID
60S.
TONIGHT, MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED, THOUGH A SHOWER OR TWO CANT
BE RULED OUT OVER FAR WESTERN NY AND LAKE ERIE TOWARD DAYBREAK ON
SUNDAY. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND TRACK NORTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
MORNING. AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS CLOSER TO THE AREA ALONG AN EARLIER
COLD FRONT, A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MAY MAKE IT
INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT THE POTENTIAL
CURRENTLY LOOKS LOW. AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD THE REGION, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL START TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA, THIS WILL IN
TURN START TO INCREASE THE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY DIPPING DOWN TO THE MID AND UPPER
40S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND TO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR THE REST
OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN SUNDAY AS IT MOVES QUICKLY
NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC. A SHARP COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL SURGE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY EVENING. WELL ESTABLISHED SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL CARRY ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALES NORTHWARD INTO
THE REGION WITH RAIN/SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD, MAINLY FROM
MID/LATE AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN NEW YORK AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE
NORTH COUNTRY. RAIN COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WITH SOME HIGHER END
RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED
ALONG THE COLD FRONT, BUT SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS AND LOW-LEVEL
LIFT FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO A NARROW BAND OF LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION. THIS COULD BE A CASE WHERE THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
LIGHTING, BUT IN A FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT STRONG TO LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES SURFACE LOW AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND WILL LEAD TO A WINDY DAY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE LATEST NBM SUGGEST A HIGH LIKELIHOOD (>70%) FOR WIND
GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS ALSO SOME CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH 40 MPH.
AS THE LOW EXITS NORTHEAST, A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT
LINGERING SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE LAKES MONDAY WILL ALLOW FOR A LAKE RESPONSE.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE MID 70S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MONDAY,
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL, IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
BRIEF RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, SUPPORTING A VERY BRIEF
TIMEFRAME OF DRY WEATHER.
A FEW TROUGHS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING A FEW ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE COOLER NATURE OF THE
PASSING TROUGHS, SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE LAKE ENHANCED DOWNWIND OF BOTH
LAKES AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
TODAY, MAINLY VFR WITH MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER, FOLLOWED BY DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY.
TONIGHT, VFR. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LLWS STARTING LATE THIS EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN NY AND
THE THREE TERMINALS OF JHW, BUF AND IAG.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...IFR/MVFR IN RAIN. ISOLATED THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE
ACROSS WNY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
MARINE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY TODAY, WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY LATER IN
THE DAY.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A LARGE
SFC LOW TRACKS TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
LARGE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION WITH WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT ON BOTH LAKES.
WITH A CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE STRONG SFC LOW, AND THEREFORE
STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED, A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE ERIE,
WITH TIMING LISTED BELOW.
WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK,
PERIODS OF SCA LEVEL WINDS/WAVES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
LEZ040-041.
SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...SW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page