479
FXUS61 KBUF 181830
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
230 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST.
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY, WITH ITS COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST OF SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND WINDY, WITH RAIN
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAIN WILL CONTINUE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN NEW YORK, WHILE RAIN ENDS
LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS WESTERN NY. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES WITH SHOWERS, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE FROM WEST
TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AS A THERMAL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
LOW TO MID 70S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY WITH AN ADDED BOOST
OF SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY AS A STRONG
RIDGE DRIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST, WITH LINGERING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR EXTENDING BACK INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MID/HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL OCCASIONALLY CLIP WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH
WILL CONTINUE, WITH A MILD NIGHT TONIGHT AND ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 70S IN MOST AREAS SUNDAY.
IT WILL TURN QUITE WINDY SUNDAY AS A 45+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST PROPAGATES ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SSW DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORE FOR A FEW HOURS SUNDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-
40 MPH RANGE. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL THEN BECOME COMMON ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH DIURNAL HEATING, AND SOME MODEST DOWNSLOPE
WIND DYNAMICS CONTINUE TO THE NORTH OF ANY TERRAIN BARRIERS. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE INTO SOUTHERLY GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH FOR MOST OF THE
AREA.
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, A MODERATELY DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TO JAMES BAY, WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH WILL
THEN FORCE SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER PA BY SUNDAY
EVENING ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT, WITH THIS LOW THEN MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL OR EASTERN NY BY MONDAY MORNING. STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHARP TROUGH, UPPER LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS, AND STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
NEAR THE DEEPENING FRONTAL WAVE WILL ALL SUPPORT A SOLD AREA OF
SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN NY BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING
SUNDAY, SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, BUT MEAGER
INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THE THUNDER CHANCES VERY LIMITED. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF A LOW TOPPED BAND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS (WITHOUT THUNDER)
ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY WINDS, BUT THE CHANCES OF ANY GUSTS
REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA APPEAR TO BE QUITE LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF
BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL TO HELP WITH ONGOING MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT. WHILE
THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF WATER WHERE LEAVES ARE CLOGGING STORM
DRAINS, THE CHANCE OF ANY FLOODING IS MINIMAL.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO START THE WORK WEEK WITH A NORTH/SOUTH
ORIENTED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE
FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. WHILE WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED LAKE INDUCED
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SPIN
ITS' WAY NORTHWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY, KEEPING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN
PLACE FOR POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS THE FINGER LAKES REGION, BUT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHERE THIS HEAVIER
AXIS OF RAINFALL ENDS UP WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
LOW AND FRONTAL POSITION. MONDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NY DEPARTS NORTHWARD INTO QUEBEC ALLOWING
TRANSIENT RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER. LARGE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SEND A SURFACE COLD FRONT
INTO WESTERN AND NORTHCENTRAL NY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BACK INTO THE REGION, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE BETTER MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
LARGE UPPER LOW WILL THEN SIT AND SPIN OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
CANADA, GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
KEEP A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED ILL-
TIMED SHORTWAVES PINWHEELING ABOUT THIS FEATURE THAT WILL BRING
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ANYTIME
ONE OF THESE FEATURES PASSES OVER THE AREA. MORE NOTABLY WILL BE
850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGING FROM ZERO TO -2C OR -3C WITH PLENTIFUL
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SITTING ATOP THIS COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS WILL FIRE UP THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DOWNWIND OF LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO, ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. JUST LOOKING AT THE
LARGER PICTURE FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT ALONE, THIS
LOOKS LIKE A FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT SETUP.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THEN DIVERGES SOME WITH HOW FAST THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS THE REGION FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WORK WEEK
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL DETERMINE IF WE START TO
DRY OUT OR IF PERIODIC SYNOPTIC AND/OR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS CONTINUE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
POSSIBLY RETURNING TO NEAR AVERAGE BY THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.
AGAIN, DEPENDENT ON HOW THE PATTERN EVOLVES TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
DRY WEATHER AND VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A
GRADUAL WEST TO EAST DECREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS A WARM FRONT
DEPARTS THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE DRY WEATHER AND VFR WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. A STRENGTHENING SSW LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE SOME LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. DIURNAL MIXING
AND DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL THEN RESULT IN THE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE, SUPPORTING GUSTS IN
THE 25-35 KNOT RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL ARRIVE IN WESTERN NY BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING, WITH CIGS/VSBY DETERIORATING TO
MVFR SHORTLY AFTER THE RAIN BEGINS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, BUT MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THE
THUNDER CHANCES QUITE LOW.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS, IMPROVING TO VFR ACROSS WESTERN NY
IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE LOWER CONDITIONS AND SHOWERS PERSIST EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A FEW SHOWERS LIKELY, MAINLY LATE IN THE
DAY ACROSS WESTERN NY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS.
MARINE
MODERATELY STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT, THEN MOVE NORTH TO JAMES BAY BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF
THE LOW, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON BOTH
LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. THE LARGELY OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL
DIRECT THE HIGHER WAVE ACTION INTO THE OFFSHORE AND CANADIAN WATERS
THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THEN
BECOME WNW BY MONDAY. HIGHER END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE. A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT TRUE SUSTAINED GALES LOOK UNLIKELY IN THE LATEST
GUIDANCE. WNW WINDS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN MONDAY AS COLD ADVECTION
INCREASES BEHIND SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH ACROSS EASTERN
NY. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON BOTH LAKES
AT A MINIMUM, WITH SOME RISK OF LOW END GALES ON LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE TIME.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
LEZ040-041.
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
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