452
FXUS61 KBUF 191354
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
954 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY, BUT CHANGE IS
ON THE HORIZON. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY, WITH ITS COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST ACROSS
OUR AREA TONIGHT. MOST OF THE DAY TODAY WILL BE DRY AND WINDY, WITH
RAIN DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. RAIN WILL CONTINUE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN NEW YORK, WHILE RAIN ENDS
LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS WESTERN NY. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES WITH SHOWERS, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH THICKENING
AND LOWERING HIGH CLOUDS BEFORE SHOWERS BEGIN TO PUSH INTO FAR
WESTERN NY STARTING DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. ONE MORE WARM
DAY TODAY AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS AS THE REGION IS FIRMLY WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. HIGHS
TODAY FOR MOST AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 70S, WARMEST ON THE
LAKE PLAINS WITH AN ADDED BOOST OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
IT WILL TURN QUITE WINDY TODAY AS A 45+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST PROPAGATES ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SSW DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-40
MPH RANGE. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL THEN BECOME COMMON ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN WITH DIURNAL HEATING, AND SOME MODEST DOWNSLOPE WIND
DYNAMICS CONTINUE TO THE NORTH OF ANY TERRAIN BARRIERS. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO SOUTHERLY GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, A MODERATELY DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TO JAMES BAY, WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH WILL THEN FORCE
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER PA BY THIS EVENING ALONG THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT, WITH THIS LOW THEN MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL OR EASTERN NY BY MONDAY MORNING. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE SHARP TROUGH, UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS, AND STRONG LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND NEAR THE DEEPENING
FRONTAL WAVE WILL ALL SUPPORT A SOLD AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO
WESTERN NY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING, SPREADING EAST
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, BUT MEAGER
INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THE THUNDER CHANCES VERY LIMITED. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF A LOW TOPPED BAND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS (WITHOUT THUNDER)
ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY WINDS, BUT THE CHANCES OF ANY GUSTS
REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA APPEAR TO BE QUITE LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF
BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL TO HELP WITH ONGOING MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT. WHILE
THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF WATER WHERE LEAVES ARE CLOGGING STORM
DRAINS, THE CHANCE OF ANY FLOODING IS MINIMAL.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND CLOSES OFF. GREATEST FORCING WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK DURING THE MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. CAMS SHOWING SOME
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MOVING THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH
COUNTRY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES. THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS A
TRANSIENT RIDGE AND DRIER AIR START TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. MONDAY
WILL BE WINDY WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, ALONG
WITH SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN MAINLY IN THE 50S.
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK DEPARTS NORTHWARD INTO QUEBEC
ALLOWING THE TRANSIENT RIDGE TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER. LARGE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SEND A SURFACE COLD FRONT
INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK TUESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BACK INTO THE REGION, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE BETTER MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
LARGE UPPER LOW WILL THEN SIT AND SPIN OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
CANADA, GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
KEEP A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED ILL-
TIMED SHORTWAVES PINWHEELING ABOUT THIS FEATURE THAT WILL BRING
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ANYTIME
ONE OF THESE FEATURES PASSES OVER THE AREA. MORE NOTABLY WILL BE
850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGING FROM ZERO TO -2C OR -3C WITH PLENTIFUL
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SITTING ATOP THIS COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS WILL FIRE UP THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DOWNWIND OF LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO, ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. JUST LOOKING AT THE
LARGER PICTURE FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT ALONE, THIS
LOOKS LIKE A FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT SETUP.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THEN DIVERGES SOME WITH HOW FAST THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS THE REGION FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WORK WEEK
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL DETERMINE IF WE START TO
DRY OUT OR IF PERIODIC SYNOPTIC AND/OR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS CONTINUE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
POSSIBLY RETURNING TO NEAR AVERAGE BY THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.
AGAIN, DEPENDENT ON HOW THE PATTERN EVOLVES TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID AFTERNOON TODAY,
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AS A 45 KNOT SSW LOW LEVEL JET CROSSES THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SURFACE GUSTS IN THE
25-35 KNOT RANGE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BRING LOWERING FLIGHT CATS. CIGS DOWN TO IFR CAN BE
EXPECTED AT TIMES BOTH ALONG AND BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
MAINLY IFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENTS
AT TIMES FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO MVFR. REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS WITH
HEAVIER SHOWERS IS ALSO EXPECTED, DOWN TO MVFR.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS, IMPROVING TO VFR ACROSS WESTERN NY
IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE LOWER CONDITIONS AND SHOWERS PERSIST EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A FEW SHOWERS LIKELY, MAINLY LATE IN THE
DAY ACROSS WESTERN NY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS.
MARINE
MODERATELY STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING, WILL MOVE NORTH TO JAMES BAY BY TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE LOW, WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON BOTH LAKE ERIE AND
LAKE ONTARIO. THE LARGELY OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL DIRECT THE
HIGHER WAVE ACTION INTO THE OFFSHORE AND CANADIAN WATERS THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY TODAY.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THEN BECOME WNW
BY MONDAY. HIGHER END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ON LAKE ERIE. WNW WINDS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN MONDAY AS COLD ADVECTION
INCREASES BEHIND SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH ACROSS EASTERN
NY. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON BOTH LAKES
AT A MINIMUM, WITH SOME RISK OF LOW END GALES ON LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE TIME.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LOZ042-043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ044-045.
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/SW
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/SW/THOMAS
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
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