498
FXUS61 KBUF 191739
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
139 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH RAIN
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST WHILE GUSTY WINDS PERSIST. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND SLOWS ITS PROGRESSION, WHILE MORNING
RAIN ENDS LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS WESTERN NY. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
GREAT LAKES WITH SHOWERS, LAKE EFFECT RAIN, MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES, AND GUSTY WINDS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN, ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY
IS UNFOLDING WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING WELL INTO THE 70S IN MOST
LOCATIONS, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ON THE LAKE PLAINS WITH AN
ADDED BOOST OF SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
RAIN WILL ENTER FAR WESTERN NY AROUND MID AFTERNOON, THEN PROGRESS
EAST TO THE GENESEE VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. A 40+ KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-
35 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT A NARROW FINE LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
RUMBLE OF TWO OF THUNDER ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT IN WESTERN
NY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS FINE LINE MAY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS OF 40+ MPH.
TONIGHT, THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH THE ASSOCIATED DEEP/SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH TAKING ON MORE
NEGATIVE TILT WITH TIME AS STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS ITS BASE.
STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE
WITH STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND FROM UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE A WIDE SWATH OF SHOWERS TONIGHT, WITH
RAIN LAGGING BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AS IT BECOMES MORE
ANABATIC IN NATURE. ANY ISOLATED THUNDER WILL END BY MID TO LATE
EVENING AS WHAT LITTLE INSTABILITY THERE IS FURTHER DIMINISHES AFTER
SUNSET.
MONDAY, THE NEGATIVELY TILED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST, REACHING EASTERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AND
CONSOLIDATE WITH A SERIES OF WAVES ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE, EVOLVING
INTO A NEW LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING WILL TAPER OFF AND END FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER IN THE DAY AS DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING MOVE EAST. EXPECT A
MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY WESTWARD. EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SYSTEM, SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT WILL TURN QUITE WINDY AGAIN MONDAY,
WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH AREAWIDE, AND UP TO 40 MPH SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
MONDAY NIGHT, EVENING LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
NEAR THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE
AS A NARROW RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AFTER
SUNSET.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK DEPARTS NORTHWARD INTO
QUEBEC ALLOWING THE TRANSIENT RIDGE TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER. LARGE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SEND A SURFACE
COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BRINGING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BACK INTO THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE BETTER
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
LARGE UPPER LOW WILL THEN SIT AND SPIN OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
CANADA, GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
KEEP A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED ILL-
TIMED SHORTWAVES PINWHEELING ABOUT THIS FEATURE THAT WILL BRING
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ANYTIME
ONE OF THESE FEATURES PASSES OVER THE AREA. MORE NOTABLY WILL BE
850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGING FROM ZERO TO -2C OR -3C WITH PLENTIFUL
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SITTING ATOP THIS COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS WILL FIRE UP THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DOWNWIND OF LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO, ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. JUST LOOKING AT THE
LARGER PICTURE FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT ALONE, THIS
LOOKS LIKE A FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT SETUP.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THEN DIVERGES SOME WITH HOW FAST THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS THE REGION FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WORK WEEK
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL DETERMINE IF WE START TO
DRY OUT OR IF PERIODIC SYNOPTIC AND/OR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS CONTINUE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
POSSIBLY RETURNING TO NEAR AVERAGE BY THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.
AGAIN, DEPENDENT ON HOW THE PATTERN EVOLVES TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF 25-35
KNOTS COMMON ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT,
WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE REGION FORM WEST TO EAST LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT IN WESTERN NY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCAL WIND GUSTS OF 35+ KNOTS AND BRIEF,
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AREAWIDE WITH ANY OF THE MORE PERSISTENT
SHOWERS BRINGING SOME MODEST VSBY RESTRICTIONS. RAIN WILL THEN END
FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF
THE AREA, WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
CIGS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IFR ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS EVENING A FEW HOURS AFTER THE RAIN BEGINS. THE
LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MVFR HIGHER TERRAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL TURN QUITE WINDY AGAIN MONDAY, WITH GUSTS
OF 25-35 KNOTS AREAWIDE, STRONGEST SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. HEAVIER
LAKE EFFECT RAIN EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A FEW SHOWERS LIKELY, ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE.
MARINE
MODERATELY STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH TO JAMES BAY BY
TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. MODERATE SOUTHERLIES WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON BOTH
LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. THE LARGELY OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL
DIRECT THE HIGHER WAVE ACTION INTO THE OFFSHORE AND CANADIAN WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THEN BECOME WNW
BY MONDAY. HIGHER END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ON LAKE ERIE. WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP MONDAY AS COLD
ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN NY. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ON BOTH LAKES AT A MINIMUM, WITH SOME RISK OF LOW END GALES ON LAKE
ONTARIO FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE TIME. COLD AIR ALOFT AND BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN MAY SUPPORT A RISK OF WATERSPOUTS AS WELL MID TO
LATE WEEK, ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY POTENTIALLY BE TOO
STRONG TO ALLOW WATERSPOUTS TO DEVELOP.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LOZ042-043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ044-045.
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
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