138
FXUS61 KBUF 191832
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
232 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH RAIN
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST WHILE GUSTY WINDS PERSIST. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND SLOWS ITS PROGRESSION, WHILE MORNING
RAIN ENDS LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS WESTERN NY. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
GREAT LAKES WITH SHOWERS, LAKE EFFECT RAIN, MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES, AND GUSTY WINDS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN, ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY
IS UNFOLDING WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING WELL INTO THE 70S IN MOST
LOCATIONS, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ON THE LAKE PLAINS WITH AN
ADDED BOOST OF SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
RAIN WILL ENTER FAR WESTERN NY AROUND MID AFTERNOON, THEN PROGRESS
EAST TO THE GENESEE VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. A 40+ KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-
35 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT A NARROW FINE LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
RUMBLE OF TWO OF THUNDER ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT IN WESTERN
NY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS FINE LINE MAY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS OF 40+ MPH.
TONIGHT, THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH THE ASSOCIATED DEEP/SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH TAKING ON MORE
NEGATIVE TILT WITH TIME AS STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS ITS BASE.
STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE
WITH STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND FROM UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE A WIDE SWATH OF SHOWERS TONIGHT, WITH
RAIN LAGGING BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AS IT BECOMES MORE
ANABATIC IN NATURE. ANY ISOLATED THUNDER WILL END BY MID TO LATE
EVENING AS WHAT LITTLE INSTABILITY THERE IS FURTHER DIMINISHES AFTER
SUNSET.
MONDAY, THE NEGATIVELY TILED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST, REACHING EASTERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AND
CONSOLIDATE WITH A SERIES OF WAVES ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE, EVOLVING
INTO A NEW LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING WILL TAPER OFF AND END FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER IN THE DAY AS DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING MOVE EAST. EXPECT A
MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY WESTWARD. EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SYSTEM, SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT WILL TURN QUITE WINDY AGAIN MONDAY,
WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH AREAWIDE, AND UP TO 40 MPH SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
MONDAY NIGHT, EVENING LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
NEAR THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE
AS A NARROW RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AFTER
SUNSET.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
TRANSIENT RIDGE PROVIDING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA WILL SLIDE EAST INTO EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. LARGE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SEND A SURFACE COLD
FRONT INTO WESTERN AND NORTHCENTRAL NY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
BRING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS BACK INTO WESTERN NY BY MIDDAY,
AND INTO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN AREAS
CLOSER TO THE BETTER MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING.
A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN SIT AND SPIN OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF CANADA, THE GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. JUST LOOKING AT THE LARGER PICTURE FROM PURELY A PATTERN
RECOGNITION STANDPOINT ALONE, THIS LOOKS LIKE A FAVORABLE LAKE
EFFECT SETUP. A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ALOFT
WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED ILL-TIMED SHORTWAVES PINWHEELING ABOUT THIS
FEATURE THAT WILL BRING ENHANCED CHANCES FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ANYTIME ONE OF THESE FEATURES PASSES OVER THE
AREA. MORE NOTABLY WILL BE 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGING FROM ZERO TO
-2C OR -3C AND LAKE SURFACE TEMPS OF +15C/+16C, WITH PLENTIFUL
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SITTING ATOP THIS COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS WILL ELICIT A STRONG LAKE RESPONSE IN
THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO, ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. LAKE EFFECT RAIN WILL BE
ONGOING IN BETWEEN EACH SHORTWAVE, HOWEVER EXPECT THE MOST INTENSE
LAKE EFFECT RAIN WHEN AIDED BY ANY OF THESE SHORTWAVES PASSING
OVERHEAD. THESE FEATURES WILL ALSO CAUSE THE BANDS TO WAVER SOME AS
THEY PASS THROUGH.
OFF LAKE ERIE: LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND NORTHEAST OF
THE LAKE (BUFFALO AREA) TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER A
GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW, BEFORE A TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA
VEERING WINDS TO THE WEST, SENDING THE LAKE PLUME EAST OF THE LAKE
(SOUTH OF BUFFALO METRO) FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO: SIMILAR SETUP HERE, ALTHOUGH RESPONSE WILL BE A
BIT DELAYED BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW EVENTUALLY VEERS SOUTHWESTERLY BY
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WITH MAIN BAND
NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE (WATERTOWN AREA AND NORTH). WINDS THEN VEER
WEST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH SENDING THE PLUME EAST OF THE LAKE (WATERTOWN/TUG HILL).
LOCALIZED SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF
THE BOTH LAKES IF THE BANDS PERSIST OVER ANY ONE AREA FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE LAKES. TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO START THE PERIOD WILL TREND BELOW
AVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LARGE UPPER LOW WILL START TO SHIFT EAST WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY. THIS WILL VEER WINDS
MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST SENDING LAKE BANDS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES BEFORE WEAKENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS STRIPPED AWAY BEHIND THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH. THAT SAID, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW FAST THE LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW EXITS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL DETERMINE IF WE
START TO DRY OUT OR IF PERIODIC SYNOPTIC AND/OR WEAKER LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS CONTINUE.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF 25-35
KNOTS COMMON ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT,
WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE REGION FORM WEST TO EAST LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT IN WESTERN NY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCAL WIND GUSTS OF 35+ KNOTS AND BRIEF,
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AREAWIDE WITH ANY OF THE MORE PERSISTENT
SHOWERS BRINGING SOME MODEST VSBY RESTRICTIONS. RAIN WILL THEN END
FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF
THE AREA, WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
CIGS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IFR ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS EVENING A FEW HOURS AFTER THE RAIN BEGINS. THE
LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MVFR HIGHER TERRAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL TURN QUITE WINDY AGAIN MONDAY, WITH GUSTS
OF 25-35 KNOTS AREAWIDE, STRONGEST SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. HEAVIER
LAKE EFFECT RAIN EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A FEW SHOWERS LIKELY, ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE.
MARINE
MODERATELY STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH TO JAMES BAY BY
TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. MODERATE SOUTHERLIES WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON BOTH
LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. THE LARGELY OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL
DIRECT THE HIGHER WAVE ACTION INTO THE OFFSHORE AND CANADIAN WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THEN BECOME WNW
BY MONDAY. HIGHER END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ON LAKE ERIE. WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP MONDAY AS COLD
ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN NY. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ON BOTH LAKES AT A MINIMUM, WITH SOME RISK OF LOW END GALES ON LAKE
ONTARIO FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE TIME. COLD AIR ALOFT AND BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN MAY SUPPORT A RISK OF WATERSPOUTS AS WELL MID TO
LATE WEEK, ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY POTENTIALLY BE TOO
STRONG TO ALLOW WATERSPOUTS TO DEVELOP.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ044-045.
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
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