586
FXUS61 KBUF 291103
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
703 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO WEAKEN AND RETREAT
NORTH, BUT WILL KEEP DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS INTACT FOR
ONE LAST DAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING RAIN AND
WINDS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION STARTING LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE STRONG AREA OF EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC PROVIDING THE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL START TO WEAKEN AND PULL NORTHWARD TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, BUT NOT BEFORE PROVIDING ONE LAST DRY AND SEASONABLE DAY,
WITH JUST SOME INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT A MAINLY LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZE WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
MEANWHILE, A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER/MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MAKE A TURN TO THE NORTH AND START PICKING
UP FORWARD SPEED AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY LATE TONIGHT, IT WILL SEND A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STRONG FORCING ON THE NOSE OF A ~50 KNOT LLJ
NORTHWARD WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANTS OF
MELISSA WILL STILL BE IN THE EARLY STAGES, BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PULLED INTO THIS
SYSTEM BY LATE TONIGHT. ANTICIPATE A STEADY RAIN TO MAKE IT
NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AROUND OR A LITTLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT, ADVANCING NORTHWARD TO AROUND THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO
SHORELINE BY AROUND DAYBREAK. EXPECT A STEADY LIGHT RAIN AT THE
ONSET, GRADUALLY BECOMING A BIT HEAVIER THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT
THAT WILL QUICKLY CHANGE THERE THURSDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE A CHILLY
RAIN WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTHCENTRAL NY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES
FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A WARM, MOIST CONVEYOR BELT WILL
SUPPLY DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SURFACE LOW INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD, STEADY RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY. EAST-NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH
STRONGER WINDS JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 35
MPH ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE LAKESHORE. AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NY, IT WILL LIKELY EXTEND TOWARD THE
EAST COAST. A DRY SLOT WILL LIKELY ENTER THE FORECAST AREA, HOWEVER
PLACEMENT AND TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AS WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE QUICKLY
BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL TRANSITION
TO RAIN SHOWERS AS STRONG FORCING MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. SURFACE
WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1.00-1.50" WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1.75" THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
FLOOD CONCERNS ARE LOW AS THE STEADY, RAIN PERSISTS OVER A LONG
WINDOW, HOWEVER CLOGGED STORM DRAINS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.
THE SURFACE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST FRIDAY AND STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP
WITH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. STRONGER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE LAKESHORES ESPECIALLY FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
FROM NIAGARA COUNTY TO OSWEGO COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY, AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND
SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NY
FRIDAY, AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL PULL AWAY RATHER QUICKLY WHICH WILL LIMIT COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOCUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.25-0.75" EAST OF
THE LAKES TO 0.10-0.25" ELSEWHERE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOW 50S, WITH NIGHT-
TIME LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH
AND CLOSED LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. COOL, WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND MAINTAIN A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE
WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN CANADA EARLY NEXT
WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE AND
THERMAL PROFILES NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THERE ARE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF FOG BETWEEN KROC AND KIAG THAT MAY
BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBY AT TIMES AT THOSE TERMINALS UNTIL AN HOUR OR SO
AFTER DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE, THERE IS ALSO SOME LIMITED FOG IN THE
TYPICAL AREAS AROUND THE FINGER LAKES AND IN THE DEEPEST INTERIOR
SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS. ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR
OR TWO AFTER DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE, VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
RULE THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH THICKENING AND LOWERING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL DECKS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN START TO DETERIORATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. CIGS WILL FALL TO IFR/LIFR BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER, WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY MAKING IT AS FAR NORTH AS THE
SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL ALSO BE
ON THE INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH SOME REDUCTION IN VSBY
POSSIBLE AS WELL.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH RAIN. BREEZY NORTHEAST
WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS.
MODERATE TO STRONG WEST WINDS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE LAKES.
MARINE
E WINDS WILL BE BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA ON BOTH LAKES TODAY, HOWEVER
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE
WATERS, ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO.
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN WHILE TURNING NNE TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, THEN MOVE DIRECTLY OVER OR JUST EAST OF
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE ADVANCING NORTHEAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. THOUGH E WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY AND
TONIGHT, A MORE NOTABLE INCREASE IN NE FLOW WILL TAKE PLACE THURSDAY
INTO A PORTION OF THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE QUICKLY BACKING TO W AND
WNW LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SATURDAY EVENING.
HIGH END SCAS WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS ENTIRE TIME FRAME, WITH A
PERIOD OF GALES POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ001>005-010-
011.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
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