529
FXUS61 KBUF 292356
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
756 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN AND WINDS INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS THEN LINGERING
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING
WELL OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH THIS FEATURE SLOWLY DEEPENING AND MAKING ITS
WAY TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY LATE TONIGHT. ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE LOW, A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...COUPLED WITH STRONG FORCING ON THE NOSE OF A 50
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. THIS WILL RESULT IN STEADY RAIN REACHING THE
SOUTHERN TIER SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, THEN SPREADING NORTH THROUGH
THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT, WITH MOST AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
SEEING WIDESPREAD RAIN BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SENT INTO THE
REGION, WITH THIS MOISTURE LIKELY ENHANCED FROM THE INTERACTION
FROM TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF MELISSA. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH
STRONGER WINDS JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. WIND GUSTS UP TO 25
TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE LAKESHORE.
THE LOW WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK INTO EASTERN
NEW YORK BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SEND A DRY SLOT INTO THE
REGION, PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE SHOULD FILL IN FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM THE WEST AND ADDITIONAL
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT,
ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A BIT MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE LOW BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE RANGE FROM AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. FLOOD CONCERNS ARE LOW AS THE STEADY, RAIN PERSISTS OVER
A LONG WINDOW, HOWEVER CLOGGED STORM DRAINS AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
..STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
HEADING INTO FRIDAY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
DEPART EAST SUPPORTING STRONG WESTERLY FLOW TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN TO 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO, WHERE 45 MPH GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG CORRIDOR FROM NIAGARA COUNTY EAST TO OSWEGO
COUNTY. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND GUSTS WILL PEAK FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS, COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT RAIN SHOWERS TO PERSIST FRIDAY
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. ADDITIONALLY, FURTHER EAST, LAKE INSTABILITY
DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT LAKE
INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE FRIDAY, AND THEN
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.25-0.75" EAST OF THE LAKES TO
0.10-0.25" ELSEWHERE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STRIP AWAY QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE
SURFACE LOW, WHICH WILL LIMIT THE LAKE RESPONSE. DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THIS MOISTURE IS STRIPPED AWAY, LAKE INDUCED SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE EAST OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO INTO SATURDAY.
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN PIVOT THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND (SATURDAY AND SUNDAY) WHICH MAY
INTRODUCE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO REINTRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
BRIEF MID-LEVEL RIDGING SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY, WILL GIVE WAY
TO THE NEXT MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN PASS OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY, WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE BY MID-WEEK.
OVERALL, AFTER A DRY START MONDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE WEST, BEFORE CROSSING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY, RESULTING IN AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
TUESDAY.
THERMAL PROFILES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. A WARMER PROFILE BY MID-WEEK WOULD SUGGEST A
LESSER CHANCE FOR LAKE INDUCED SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES, WHILE
A COLDER PROFILE WOULD SUPPORT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES. STAY TUNED!
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF NOVEMBER.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AND MAKE
ITS WAY TO THE VIRGINIAS TONIGHT. OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...HIGH
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AND
THICKEN/LOWER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL THEN DETERIORATE MORE MARKEDLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING AS A PLUME OF DEEPENING MOISTURE AND LIFT ATTENDANT TO
THE APPROACHING LOW OVERSPREADS OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN...WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS PLUMMETING TO LIFR/IFR ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES BY 12Z
THURSDAY...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING. ONCE ESTABLISHED...SUCH CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
AS THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY INTO PENNSYLVANIA DURING THURSDAY THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR REGION WILL TIGHTEN. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A PERIOD OF BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20-30 KNOTS ALONG
AND INLAND FROM THE SOUTH SHORES OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...
WITH THE KIAG/KROC/KBUF TERMINALS MOST AFFECTED.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS/LOW CLOUDS AND ATTENDANT
IFR/LIFR.
FRIDAY...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS.
MODERATE TO STRONG WEST WINDS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE LAKES.
MARINE
EASTERLY COMPONENT WINDS WILL BE BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA ON LAKE
ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT, HOWEVER WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE WATERS,
ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE WEST OF
DUNKIRK.
A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY, THEN MOVE DIRECTLY OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE ADVANCING NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY. A NOTABLE INCREASE IN NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TAKE PLACE
THURSDAY INTO A PORTION OF THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE QUICKLY BACKING TO
WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
AS OUTLINED BELOW. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING ON LAKE ONTARIO WITH GALE WATCHES
POSTED FOR THE OPEN WATERS AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEARSHORES
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 4 PM EDT SATURDAY
FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 4 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR LOZ043.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR LOZ043-062-063.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 2 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR LOZ044.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR LOZ044-064.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THURSDAY TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR LOZ045.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR LOZ045-065.
SYNOPSIS...JM/JJR/TMA
NEAR TERM...JJR/TMA
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...JM/JJR/TMA
MARINE...TMA
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