606
FXUS61 KBUF 301044
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
644 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CLOSES OUT THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING. A SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT ADVANCES NORTHWARD TODAY. A
BROAD SWATH OF EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW AND WARM, MOIST AIR ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. A REGION OF DPVA EXTENDS FROM EASTERN OHIO
TO NORTH-CENTRAL NY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EAST-
NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH STRONGER WINDS JUST
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY. WIND GUSTS UP 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NIAGARA, ORLEANS, AND MONROE COUNTIES, WITH THE HIGHER
GUSTS NEAR THE LAKESHORE. THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MAY
ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN DACKS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS
(40-50MPH) SHOULD STAY ALOFT. AS THE SURFACE LOW ADVANCES
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL PA, A DRY SLOT WILL LIKELY ENTER THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GIVE THE AREA A
SHORT BREAK FROM STEADY RAIN.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NY WHILE THE MID-
LEVEL LOW DIGS INTO WESTERN PA THIS EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE EXTENDING BACK INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
NY WHERE STEADY RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE INTO
WESTERN NY LATE TONIGHT. FALLING TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WILL
SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS WESTERN NY LATE TONIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE FROM 1.00-1.50", WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST SHORELINE OF LAKE
ONTARIO TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE LOW AS THE STEADY, RAIN PERSISTS OVER A RELATIVELY LONG
WINDOW, HOWEVER CLOGGED STORM DRAINS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS IT
EXITS NEW ENGLAND AND TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA, AND THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR REGION, THAT
WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGEST GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE FOUND ALONG
THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE. THE STRONGER GUSTS ARE LIKELY
TO BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS A 45-50 KNOT LLJ
PASSES OVERHEAD. STRONG PRESSURE RISES FRIDAY EVENING WILL MAINTAIN
A GUSTY BREEZE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND WINDS SUBSIDE ON SATURDAY.
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND DEFORMATION BAND WITHIN THIS STORM SYSTEM
WILL MAINTAIN RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY, WITH THE STEADY RAIN SHOWERS
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT, TO BE REPLACED BY BANDS OF
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN ON A NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. SLIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM
MAY BE ENOUGH LATE IN THE SYNOPTIC EVENT TO ALLOW FOR A LITTLE SNOW
TO MIX IN AT THE END OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF LEWIS COUNTY, WITH
PERHAPS THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW OF THE SEASON.
OVERALL RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF INCH FRIDAY FOR
MUCH OF OUR REGION, WITH POTENTIAL FOR UP TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE STEADIER SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LONGEST.
LAKE EFFECT RAIN, LACKING DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE, WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED TENTH OR TWO OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
SATURDAY WITH GREATEST LAKE RESPONSE EAST OF LAKE ERIE WHERE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIPPING DOWN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ENHANCE
MOISTURE PROFILES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ZONAL FLOW TO START THIS PERIOD, BUT A PACIFIC JET WILL CARVE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER, BUT COOLER AIR ALOFT MAY BECOME JUST COLD ENOUGH
(850 HPA TEMPERATURES -1 TO -2C) OVER LAKE ONTARIO FOR LIMITED LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT RAIN ACTIVITY.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND A STEADY
RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND IFR OR BELOW CONDITIONS WILL
LAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A NORTHEAST WIND WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER AND GUSTS UP TO
35KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KIAG. LOWER WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY ELSEWHERE
TODAY.
A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAPITOL REGION
TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL STAY ABOVE THE INVERSION, HOWEVER
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY STAY EAST OF KART.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS.
MODERATE TO STRONG WEST WINDS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE LAKES.
MARINE
A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY, THEN MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT, BEFORE ADVANCING
NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. A NOTABLE INCREASE IN
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY INTO A PORTION OF TONIGHT,
BEFORE QUICKLY BACKING TO WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT AS OUTLINED BELOW. THE STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING ON LAKE ONTARIO
WITH GALE WATCHES POSTED FOR THE OPEN WATERS AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEARSHORES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DIMINISH INTO SATURDAY AND SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN END OF LAKE ERIE, WHILE CONTINUING ON
THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM
EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR LOZ043.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR LOZ043-062-063.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR LOZ044.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR LOZ044-064.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR LOZ045.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR LOZ045-065.
SYNOPSIS...HSK
NEAR TERM...HSK
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK/TMA
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