128
FXUS61 KBUF 301922
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
322 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TODAY, THEN PASSES BY TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY.
WINDS DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN DRIER WEATHER SUNDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER MAKES A RETURNS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE STEADY UNIFORM STRATIFORM RAIN WILL TAKE A BRIEF BREAK
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OCCUR AS
THE DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN AND THEN ALSO THE BEST FORCING MOVES OFF
TO OUR ENE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE THE STEADIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN IS ADVERTISED TO
TRACK NORTHEAST CROSSING PA LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND THEN DEEPEN
AS IT TRACKS INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS EVENING. WITH IT, A
COOL MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BEGIN TO WRAP IN BRINGING MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP BY THIS EVENING-TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS. WHILE CHANCES ARE LOW...WE EVEN POTENTIALLY
COULD SEE AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 0.50-1.25 OF AN INCH.
THE SFC LOW QUICKLY DEEPENS AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NNE OFF INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC-NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. WHILE THIS OCCURS, A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN CONCERT WITH A STRENGTHENING LLJ
+ 50KNOTS AND ALSO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH. GIVEN THAT...WILL
ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FROM 11AM FRI TO 5AM SAT FOR MOST OF THE
REGION, EXCEPT JEFFERSON AND LEWIS CO. WHERE THE LLJ JET IS
SHOWN TO BE MUCH WEAKER. ALSO, A COOL MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME MEASURE OF SHOWERS E-ESE OF THE LAKES
FRIDAY, AGAIN FAVORING UPSLOPE AREAS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOUND OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL TRACK OFF INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WINDS WILL THEN SLOWLY
RELAX OVERNIGHT BUT WE WILL SEE SOME CONTINUED LAKE INDUCE SHOWERS
ESE OF THE LAKES. HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL OVERTIME GET
STRIPPED AWAY LIMITING ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY MORNING
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION, WITH ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE
PRECIPITATION ENDING BEFORE DAYBREAK. CYCLONIC FLOW OF CHILLY AIR
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SOME LIMITED LAKE RESPONSE EAST OF THE LAKES, BUT
DRY AIR AND A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP THIS
RELATIVELY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED. OFF LAKE ERIE, EXPECT A FEW BANDS
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER, WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE SATURDAY MORNING. OFF LAKE ONTARIO, A FEW RAIN AND WET
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, WITH A THIN
SLUSHY COATING POSSIBLE ON THE GRASS ON THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.
LAKE EFFECT WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT END
ALTOGETHER WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND/OR WET SNOW SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE EAST OF THE LAKES, WITH ANY WET SNOW LIMITED TO HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE LOW CHANCE OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE EAST OF THE LAKES SUNDAY, BUT DRY AIR AND LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL KEEP ANY LAKE RESPONSE WEAK.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS.
SUNDAY WILL THEN WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS. IT
WILL REMAIN BREEZY SATURDAY, WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
CANADA, WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS HUDSON BAY
TO NORTHERN QUEBEC. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BOTH SYNOPTICALLY AND WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOULD
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT, WITH STRONGER FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE
DISPLACED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE
LOW.
WIND FIELDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF THE LOW MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH ANOTHER WINDY PERIOD EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS MAY
REACH OR EXCEED 40 MPH IN THE TYPICAL AREAS EAST/NORTHEAST OF LAKE
ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS, AND ALSO
SOME GUSTY ENE WINDS TO SOME AREA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER (KIAG) WITH GUST UP TO 35 KNOTS. LOWER WIND
GUSTS ARE LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE NEARS AND THEN PASSES BY THE REGION.
THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY EXIT OFF TOWARDS QUEBEC-NEW
ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. A STRENGTHENING 850MB +50 KNOT LLJ IN ITS
WAKE WILL BRING GUSTY W-WNW WINDS TO AREA TERMINALS, WITH GUSTS
OF UP TO 40-45 KNOTS AT TIMES. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY ESE OF THE LAKES.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR-VFR WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ESE OF
THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...MVFR-VFR A FEW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ESE OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
ESE OF THE LAKES
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
MARINE
A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL NEAR THE LOWER LAKES THIS
EVENING THEN PASS BY TONIGHT AND OFF INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE FOUND ON AREA LAKES THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WHICH WILL BECOME WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SATURDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT AS OUTLINED BELOW. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD
OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING ON LAKE ONTARIO WITH
GALE WARNINGS HOISTED FOR ALL OF LAKE ONTARIO.
A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SLOWLY COMING TO AN END ON
LAKE ERIE, WHILE CONTINUING ON THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO.
WINDS WILL BECOME MUCH LIGHTER SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE
OVER MANITOBA WILL SEND A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE LOWER LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL POTENTIALLY BRING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
NYZ001>006-010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ042>044.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LOZ042>045-062>065.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ045.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR
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