015
FXUS61 KBUF 311053
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
653 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION TODAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. WINDS DIMINISH
TONIGHT, WITH LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT, THEN DRIER WEATHER SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER MAKES A
RETURNS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 985MB LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING. AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC AND STRONG LIFT
FROM AN NEGATIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SHOWERS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NY THIS MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE
850MB TEMPERATURES TO FALL AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL
REINVIGORATE SHOWERS THROUGH MID- MORNING. CLOSER TO THE LOW,
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION THROUGH
DAYBREAK.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL MOVE EAST AS THE
CYCLONE HEADS TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 0.25-0.75" IS POSSIBLE, WITH UP TO AN INCH EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. LOWER AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM ALLEGANY COUNTY INTO THE
CENTRAL FINGER LAKES. A WEST-NORTHWEST LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD THROUGH EVENING. A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW
WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE, WITH THE HIGHEST
GUSTS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FINGER
LAKES REGION. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST COUNTIES
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY, HOWEVER WIND GUSTS WILL SLIGHTLY LOWER AT 30-40 MPH.
AS DEEP MOISTURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING,
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. A
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOCUS LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.75" ARE POSSIBLE FROM WAYNE
COUNTY TO THE NORTH COUNTRY, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ON THE TUG
HILL. UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE ERIE. SNOW
MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
BEHIND OUR DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SATURDAY -
SUNDAY WILL FALL INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS AT 850 HPA,
COLD ENOUGH THAT LAKE INSTABILITY WILL FORM LOCALIZED BANDS OF LAKE
EFFECT RAIN DOWNWIND OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON A WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED, LEAVING THE BANDS WEAK...AND LIKELY TO BE
MOST PROMINENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE DAYTIME RISING
MIXING HEIGHTS AND SHEAR WEAKEN THE BANDS OF RAIN. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BRING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OVER LAKE ERIE...BRIEFLY ENHANCING THIS BAND OF
RAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND BACKING
WINDS SUNDAY END THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN BAND THREAT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NARROWING IN ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTED BY A
DEEP PV ANOMALY DOWN TO NEAR 500 HPA PASSING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND
LLJ AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER WIND EVENT TO OUR REGION,
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS RAMPING UP THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE 35 TO 45
MPH RANGE DOWNWIND OF BOTH GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, RAIN
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...WITH WINDS
VEERING TO WEST MONDAY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.
THERE WILL STILL BE A LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZE TUESDAY WITH A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
ANOTHER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REACH OUR REGION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE.
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF BOTH THE MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH, WITH THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM POSSIBLY THE WETTER OF THE TWO.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A 985MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NY. A MIX OF
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AS THE LOW MOVES EAST
TODAY. A COOL, WESTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS EAST OF THE
LAKES. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 45KTS
ACROSS WESTERN NY TO THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION. THE HIGHEST
WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF KBUF AND ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND NEAR THE LAKESHORES.
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE LAKES
TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MVFR-VFR A FEW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ESE OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
ESE OF THE LAKES
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
MARINE
A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK THIS MORNING, WHICH WILL
BECOME WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
SATURDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT AS OUTLINED
BELOW. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING ON LAKE ONTARIO WITH GALE WARNINGS HOISTED FOR ALL OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SLOWLY COMING TO AN END ON LAKE ERIE,
WHILE CONTINUING ON THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO.
WINDS WILL BECOME MUCH LIGHTER SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE
OVER MANITOBA WILL SEND A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE LOWER LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL POTENTIALLY BRING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
NYZ001>006-010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LOZ042>045.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LOZ042>045-062>065.
SYNOPSIS...HSK
NEAR TERM...HSK
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...AR/EAJ/HSK
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