576
FXUS61 KBUF 311420
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1020 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION TODAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. WINDS DIMINISH
TONIGHT, WITH LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT, THEN DRIER WEATHER SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER MAKES A
RETURNS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL MOVE EAST AS DEEP LOW
PRESSURE HEADS TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.25-0.75" IS POSSIBLE, WITH UP TO AN INCH
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. LOWER AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM ALLEGANY
COUNTY INTO THE CENTRAL FINGER LAKES. A WEST-NORTHWEST LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THROUGH EVENING. A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL ALLOW WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE, WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION. A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST COUNTIES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY, HOWEVER
WIND GUSTS WILL SLIGHTLY LOWER AT 30-40 MPH.
AS DEEP MOISTURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING,
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. A
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOCUS LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.75" ARE POSSIBLE FROM WAYNE
COUNTY TO THE NORTH COUNTRY, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ON THE TUG
HILL. UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE ERIE. SNOW
MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
BEHIND OUR DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SATURDAY -
SUNDAY WILL FALL INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS AT 850 HPA,
COLD ENOUGH THAT LAKE INSTABILITY WILL FORM LOCALIZED BANDS OF LAKE
EFFECT RAIN DOWNWIND OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON A WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED, LEAVING THE BANDS WEAK...AND LIKELY TO BE
MOST PROMINENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE DAYTIME RISING
MIXING HEIGHTS AND SHEAR WEAKEN THE BANDS OF RAIN. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BRING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OVER LAKE ERIE...BRIEFLY ENHANCING THIS BAND OF
RAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND BACKING
WINDS SUNDAY END THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN BAND THREAT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NARROWING IN ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTED BY A
DEEP PV ANOMALY DOWN TO NEAR 500 HPA PASSING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND
LLJ AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER WIND EVENT TO OUR REGION,
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS RAMPING UP THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE 35 TO 45
MPH RANGE DOWNWIND OF BOTH GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, RAIN
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...WITH WINDS
VEERING TO WEST MONDAY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.
THERE WILL STILL BE A LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZE TUESDAY WITH A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
ANOTHER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REACH OUR REGION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE.
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF BOTH THE MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH, WITH THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM POSSIBLY THE WETTER OF THE TWO.
AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
DEEP LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER NEW ENGLAND. AN AREA OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NY. A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION AS THE LOW MOVES EAST TODAY. A COOL, WESTERLY FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKES. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO
25 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 45KTS ACROSS WESTERN NY TO THE SOUTHERN
TUG HILL REGION. THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF
KBUF AND ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR THE LAKESHORES.
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE LAKES
TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MVFR-VFR A FEW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ESE OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
ESE OF THE LAKES
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
MARINE
A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
GUSTY WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE SATURDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT AS
OUTLINED BELOW. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING ON LAKE ONTARIO WITH GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SLOWLY COMING TO AN END ON LAKE ERIE,
WHILE CONTINUING ON THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO.
WINDS WILL BECOME MUCH LIGHTER SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE OVER
MANITOBA WILL SEND A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE LOWER LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL POTENTIALLY BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ001>006-010>014-
019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LOZ042>045.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ042>045-
062>065.
SYNOPSIS...AR/EAJ/HSK
NEAR TERM...HSK/TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HSK/TMA
MARINE...AR/EAJ/HSK/TMA
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