602
FXUS61 KBUF 311816
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
216 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT, WITH
SHOWERS AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN
DRIER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER MAKES A RETURNS
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING, SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS A 50
KNOTS LOW LEVEL JET CROSSES THE REGION. A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL ALLOW WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE, WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION. A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST COUNTIES THROUGH TONIGHT.
AS DEEP MOISTURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING,
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOCUS LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.75" ARE POSSIBLE FROM
WAYNE COUNTY TO THE NORTH COUNTRY, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ON
THE TUG HILL. UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE
ERIE. SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATE TONIGHT. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE,
FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THESE AREAS (NBM GIVES ROUGHLY A
45% TO 60% CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW).
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL GENERATE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT RAIN BANDS, MAINLY DURING SATURDAY
MORNING. DIURNAL EFFECTS AND INCOMING DRIER AIR SHOULD WEAKEN
THE LAKE BANDS BY AFTERNOON. STILL SOME BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO LAKE
ONTARIO.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN DRIFTS
EAST TO THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND THE OVERALL LACK OF REMAINING MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT
WHAT IS LEFT OF ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ESE OF THE LAKES SATURDAY
NIGHT, OR EVEN END IT ALL TOGETHER. WARMING MID-LEVEL BY SUNDAY WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER AREAWIDE THROUGH AT-LEAST EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THAT...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST INTO THE HUDSON BAY WILL
SEND ITS COLD INTO AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. WE
SHOULD SEE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PICK UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
THEN SOME SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES MONDAY EVENING. WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY GUST UP TO 35-45 MPH AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES. PRECIPITATION WISE...THE BEST CHANCE TOO
SEE SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WHERE THE BEST SUPPORT WILL BE FOUND.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WEAK SFC RIDGE PASSING THROUGH THE MID-ALANTIC REGION WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN APPROACH OUR REGION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FRIDAY BUT IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL SEE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AGAIN AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND FRONT APPROACHES THE
LOWER LAKES.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NY. A MIX OF
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. A
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AS THE
LOW MOVES EAST WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS ACROSS WESTERN NY TO
THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION. THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE
JUST EAST OF KBUF AND ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR THE
LAKESHORES.
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE LAKES
TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MVFR-VFR A FEW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ESE OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
ESE OF THE LAKES
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
WEDNESDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS LATE.
MARINE
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
GUSTY WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE SATURDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT AS
OUTLINED BELOW. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR INTO THIS EVENING
ON LAKE ONTARIO WITH GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SLOWLY COMING TO AN END ON
LAKE ERIE, WHILE CONTINUING ON THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO.
WINDS WILL BECOME MUCH LIGHTER SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE OVER
MANITOBA WILL SEND A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE LOWER LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ001>006-010>014-
019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LOZ030.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ042>045-
062>065.
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
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