749
FXUS61 KBUF 010018
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
818 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY FURTHER DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND AWAY FROM OUR REGION TONIGHT, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST. OTHERWISE A COOL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BRINGING US MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL THEN FOLLOW ON MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
WITHDRAW FURTHER NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR REGION TONIGHT.
AS ITS ASSOCIATED SWATH OF DEEP WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FOLLOWS SUIT...
LINGERING SYNOPTICALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN
FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THESE FINALLY EXITING AREAS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. ACROSS THE TUG HILL/WESTERN ADIRONDACK
FOOTHILLS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN...WHICH COULD RESULT IN
SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS IN THESE AREAS. BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYNOPTIC PRECIP...A
COOL WEST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES AS WE
PUSH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WITH RESPECT TO WINDS...THE PRESENCE OF A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
AND A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH ACROSS THE REGION AS OF THIS
WRITING...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS FOUND SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO ACROSS
THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
AREAS IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
IN THESE AREAS...A WIND ADVISORY CONSEQUENTLY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
FURTHER WEST ACROSS EXTREME FAR WESTERN NEW YORK WINDS HAVE ALREADY
BEGUN TO DIMINISH WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET...AND WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR
NIAGARA...ERIE...AND CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES. OVERALL THE STRONGEST
REMAINING WINDS/GUSTS OF THE NIGHT WILL COME BETWEEN NOW AND
MID TO LATE EVENING...WITH THESE DIMINISHING THEREAFTER AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET DEPARTS OFF TO OUR EAST.
ON SATURDAY...COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL GENERATE
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT RAIN BANDS, MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. DIURNAL EFFECTS AND INCOMING DRIER AIR SHOULD WEAKEN THE
LAKE BANDS BY AFTERNOON. STILL SOME BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO LAKE ONTARIO.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN DRIFTS
EAST TO THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND THE OVERALL LACK OF REMAINING MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT
WHAT IS LEFT OF ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ESE OF THE LAKES SATURDAY
NIGHT, OR EVEN END IT ALL TOGETHER. WARMING MID-LEVEL BY SUNDAY WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER AREAWIDE THROUGH AT-LEAST EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THAT...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST INTO THE HUDSON BAY WILL
SEND ITS COLD INTO AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. WE
SHOULD SEE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PICK UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
THEN SOME SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES MONDAY EVENING. WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY GUST UP TO 35-45 MPH AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES. PRECIPITATION WISE...THE BEST CHANCE TOO
SEE SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WHERE THE BEST SUPPORT WILL BE FOUND.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WEAK SFC RIDGE PASSING THROUGH THE MID-ALANTIC REGION WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN APPROACH OUR REGION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FRIDAY BUT IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL SEE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AGAIN AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND FRONT APPROACHES THE
LOWER LAKES.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NY. A MIX OF
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. A
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AS THE
LOW MOVES EAST WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS ACROSS WESTERN NY TO
THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION. THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE
JUST EAST OF KBUF AND ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR THE
LAKESHORES.
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE LAKES
TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MVFR-VFR A FEW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ESE OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
ESE OF THE LAKES
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
WEDNESDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS LATE.
MARINE
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
GUSTY WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE SATURDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT AS
OUTLINED BELOW. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR INTO THIS EVENING
ON LAKE ONTARIO WITH GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SLOWLY COMING TO AN END ON
LAKE ERIE, WHILE CONTINUING ON THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO.
WINDS WILL BECOME MUCH LIGHTER SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE OVER
MANITOBA WILL SEND A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE LOWER LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ002>006-011>014-
020-021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LOZ030.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ042>045-
062>065.
SYNOPSIS...JJR/TMA
NEAR TERM...JJR/TMA
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JJR/TMA
MARINE...TMA
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