264
FXUS61 KBUF 012340
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
740 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL FLOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND, WITH LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS AT
TIMES SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY, ENDING THE LAKE RESPONSE
WHILE ALSO ALLOWING FOR A BIT MORE SUNSHINE, THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY,
WITH A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WHICH
WILL BACK THE WIND FLOW TO MORE WESTERLY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL PROVIDE SOME ADDED MOISTURE AND LIFT TO THE
LAKE RESPONSE EAST OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A FEW
LOCALIZED MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE LAKE RESPONSE
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL LIKELY REMAIN MORE MUTED BY
COMPARISON, THOUGH A FEW SHALLOW BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN MAY STREAM IN
OFF THE LAKE AT TIMES.
ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT RAIN WILL END EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
THE INCREASED WIND SHEAR AND INCOMING DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BUILDING HIGH. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE WEAK SFC RIDGE OVER THE LOWER LAKES EXITS OFF TO OUR EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT, BUT WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT-LEAST MID MORNING
MONDAY. WITH THE APPROACHING POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH, GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS IS ADVERTISED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
BUFKIT SHOWS A 40-50 KNOT LLJ AROUND 925MB WITH A WELL MIXED
SOUNDING PROFILE. ANTICIPATING THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS TO FOCUS
NORTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES. AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE LOWER LAKES
MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING, SOME SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT
MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. NBM PROBS SHOW LESS THAN
30% CHANCE OF SEEING 0.10" FROM THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES WEST, WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBS (> 70%) EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SHOWER CHANCES
DWINDLE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER EVERYWHERE TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVING WEDNESDAY.
WHILE THERE IS SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING IT
DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHICH LAST INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...SPRAWLING SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN THURSDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING AGAIN ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. UNCERTAINTY
THEN BEGINS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
A FEW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL LINGER EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD BE MORE
MUTED THAN LAKE ERIE, WHERE LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT BAND. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY
SOUTH OF KBUF AND NORTH OF KJHW, THOUGH SOME BRIEF IMPACTS TO
CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE LATTER WHERE A PROB30 HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED TO THE TAF.
OTHERWISE, THE PATCHY VFR LAKE CLOUDS AND ADDITIONAL MID-CLOUD COVER
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD MOSTLY PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT.
A FEW MVFR CIGS MAY HANG ON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
WILL DIMINISH THE LAST OF THE LAKE RESPONSE EARLY WITH WIDER GAPS
BETWEEN THE LAKE CLOUDS EMERGING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR. BREEZY SOUTHWEST GUSTS DOWNWIND OF
THE LAKES. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWERING CEILING HEIGHTS ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. RAIN SHOWERS TAPER OFF
MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY...BECOMING MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF A SHOWER EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/VFR. RAIN SHOWERS LATE.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SUBSEQUENT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, WITH LINGERING SCA CONDITIONS ALONG THE EASTERN
END OF LAKE ONTARIO FALLING OFF AS OUTLINED BELOW. ALONG A
CONVERGENT LAKE EFFECT BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR
WATERSPOUT FORMATION ON LAKE ERIE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN FURTHER ON SUNDAY, AND BACK TO A SOUTHWEST WIND
DIRECTION EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LOW WAVE HEIGHTS ON
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
AHEAD OF A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED ON BOTH GREAT LAKES...WITH A DECENT FLOW CONTINUING DOWN
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
LIKELY STARTING MONDAY MORNING, WITH POOR BOATING CONDITIONS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK ON THE GREAT LAKES.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ043>045.
SYNOPSIS...PP/THOMAS/TMA
NEAR TERM...PP/TMA
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...PP/THOMAS/TMA
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