012
FXUS61 KBUF 030216
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
916 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER TONIGHT AS IT DRIFTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY, WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING A ROUND
OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
QUIET WEATHER REMAINS THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT, WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT.
A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TOWARD QUEBEC MONDAY, AND PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL MOISTURE QUALITY LOOKS
LIMITED, BUT A FAIRLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH
SHOULD GENERATE A ROUND OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR A
WINDY DAY MONDAY, AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. MOMENTUM TRANSFER TECHNIQUE SUGGESTING WIND GUSTS TO NEAR
45 MPH, ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
CAA WILL BRIEFLY BRING IN A COOLER AIRMASS TO THE LOWER LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT WITH 850 T'S BRIEFLY DOWN TO 0C TO -4C. THE WESTERLY POST-
FRONTAL WINDS WILL EVER SO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THAT THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS FAIRLY DRY, A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION, AND THE SHORT FETCH (WEST WINDS) ACROSS LAKE ERIE...LAKE
INDUCED SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED BEHIND THE FRONT. OFF LAKE
ONTARIO...A BIT BETTER OF A FETCH (LONG AXIS) AND A POTENTIAL
UPSTREAM CONNECTION FROM LAKE HURON WE MAY SEE SOME LAKE
INDUCED SHOWERS LINGER INTO TUESDAY ACROSS OSWEGO CO.
OTHERWISE... EXPANSIVE SFC RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
TO A MAJORITY OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A BIT ELEVATED TUESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING. THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO MIX
WITH SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE ENDING
THURSDAY. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS POINT IF ANY AT ALL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
TRANSITORY RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN NEW
YORK STATE THURSDAY, WHICH WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER INTO THE
DAY FRIDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AFTER THAT...CONFIDENCE
BEGINS TO LOWER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TURNING COLDER AND
POSSIBLY SEEING THE CONTINUATION OF ACTIVE WEATHER.
AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAINLY VFR WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR. SOUTHWEST GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS
DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWERING
CEILING HEIGHTS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. RAIN
SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY...BECOMING MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF A SHOWER EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/VFR. RAIN SHOWERS LATE.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...RESTRICTION BECOMING LIKELY WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
MARINE
QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST, WITH WINDS
TURNING SOUTHERLY, BUT REMAIN UNDER 15 KNOTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS RAMP
UP MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON, VEERING WINDS TO A WEST-NORTHWEST
MONDAY EVENING. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED
GALES ON BOTH THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ERIE AND ALL OF LAKE
ONTARIO MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
ELEVATED WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TUESDAY. AFTER A LULL IN CONDITIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
MID WEEK WITH A PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS AND A WIND SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST, WITH ADDITIONAL MARINE HEADLINES LIKELY
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
LEZ040-041.
GALE WATCH FROM 9 AM EST MONDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
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