326
FXUS61 KBUF 031807
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
107 PM EST MON NOV 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. BEHIND THE FRONT,
COLD AIR FLOWING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE A
LAKE RESPONSE, WITH SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WILL BRING BACK
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 45 MPH DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.
COLD ADVECTION NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORTING SOME
LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE BASED RIDGING WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY. BOTTOM LINE IS DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S ALONG WITH BRISK WESTERLY WINDS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDING TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT, WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR A
FEW SHOWERS REACHING THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
CLIPPER SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND A
PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS. POST FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION NORTHWEST FLOW
SUPPORTING LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
RIDGING AND DRIER AIR BRINGING DRY WEATHER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TWO SYSTEMS LOOK
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, ONE ON FRIDAY AND ANOTHER ON SUNDAY.
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND WINDS WITH BOTH SYSTEMS. COLDER AIR BEHIND
THE SUNDAY SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOWFALL POTENTIAL BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
BAND OF SHOWERS CROSSING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT.
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 40 KNOTS FOR KBUF/KIAG
AND KART, WHILE INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE, KJHW AND KROC ARE LIKELY TO
HAVE PEAK GUSTS MORE TOWARDS 30 KNOTS OR SO.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SHOWERS LIKELY TO REMAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO (UPSLOPE) AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO (LAKE EFFECT RAIN).
THIS PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT KART AND KROC TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...BECOMING MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF A SHOWER EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/VFR DETERIORATING TO IFR. RAIN SHOWERS LATE. WINDY.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS, MAINLY EAST OF THE LAKE ERIE
AND LAKE ONTARIO.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A
PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GALE
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WITH 35
KNOT GALES EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BRING SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS TO THE UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AS WELL AS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER BETWEEN FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG.
ELEVATED WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TUESDAY. AFTER A LULL IN CONDITIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
MID WEEK WITH A PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS AND A WIND SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST, WITH ADDITIONAL MARINE HEADLINES LIKELY
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ001-002-007-
010-011-019-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ042>045-
062>065.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
SLZ022.
SYNOPSIS...THOMAS/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...THOMAS/TMA
MARINE...THOMAS/TMA
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