717
FXUS61 KBUF 041840
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
140 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. A
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD, JUST NORTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG
WINDS. A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY WITH A PASSING COLD
FRONT WILL TAPER OFF AS SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS HIGHER ELEVATION
SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST TONIGHT. WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS
INCREASING OVERNIGHT, WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS REACHING
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CLIPPER SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND A
PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS. WIND ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH, SOME LOW END POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER
GUSTS IF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION CAN ORGANIZE ALONG THE DYNAMIC
SYSTEM COLD FRONT.
POST FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION NORTHWEST FLOW SUPPORTING LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
HEADING INTO THURSDAY, MID-LEVEL TROUGHING CENTERED ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES,
RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE, THE PATTERN
PREVIOUSLY OUTLINED WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND BY THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL, THE EXITING MID-LEVEL TROUGHING
AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW WILL SUPPORT COOL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
TO FUNNEL IN ACROSS WNY AND NORTH CENTRAL NY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW.
THUS EXPECT A FEW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS, WITH SOME LAKE-TO-LAKE
ENHANCEMENT THURSDAY MORNING SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD EAST, BY MID-DAY THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TO PETER OUT.
THE NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ROTATE THROUGH THE CLOSED LOW
OVER HUDSON BAY, WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL
UNITED STATES FRIDAY. THIS NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL SUPPORT YET
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY, PUSHING ITS WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION AND THEN COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. WITH THE FRONT, EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME
STRONGER WINDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE PARKED CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY THIS WEEKEND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE
LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AFTER A PERIOD OF SOME BRIEF MID-LEVEL
RIDGING SATURDAY, A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY. THE SECOND OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ACT TO AMPLIFY
THE SYSTEM, SUPPORTING A SHARP NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH TO DRAG THE
MID-LEVEL LOW EAST. THIS BEING SAID, AFTER A QUIET START TO THE
WEEKEND, THE SURFACE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN DIFFERED WITH TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK, A MORE NORTHERN
TRACK WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS, WHILE A
SOUTHERN MORE TRACK WILL SUPPORT A COLDER SOLUTION SUPPORTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO MIX IN. DESPITE THE TRACK DIFFERENCES, COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK SUPPORTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
PICKUP TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR WEDNESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
BRINGS SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS BY AFTERNOON. SW-W WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 40 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING, AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE NIGHT.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. SHOWERS LIKELY EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO, WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER TO
GENESEE VALLEY.
SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE HIGHER ELEVATION WET SNOW.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT.
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING HIGH, AND A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES.
MARINE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. WINDS WILL WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE
DYNAMIC SYSTEM COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF
50 KNOT WIND GUST IF A CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPS.
GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO
AS OUTLINED BELOW. IT IS LIKELY THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
BE NEEDED FOR THE NIAGARA RIVER, AND POSSIBLY THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
041.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ042.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LOZ042>045-062>065.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LOZ043>045.
SYNOPSIS...THOMAS/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
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