785
FXUS61 KBUF 191147
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
647 AM EST WED NOV 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
MILDER AIR AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION BRINGING MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING
WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE TONIGHT PROVIDING A PERIOD OF
TRANQUIL WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL KEEP THE COOLER CANADIAN LOW LEVEL FLOW
LOCKED IN PLACE, ALONG WITH JUST ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SOME LAKE CLOUDS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO, MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE EAST-WEST PORTION OF I-90 FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
EAST TO SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY INCLUDING THE LOWER GENESEE VALLEY
AND NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS.
ANY LINGERING LAKE INDUCED CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT OWED
TO A WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
MOVES EAST INTO EASTERN NY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. DESPITE LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OVERHEAD, WEAK WARM ADVECTION
DEVELOPING ALOFT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR AN AREA OF MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, THUS LIMITING BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM
OTHERWISE TANKING.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY, PROVIDING
A DRY AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE.
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC, WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH
CLIPPING THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS, WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND WEAKER AND
DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, WITH ANOTHER SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN UN-PHASED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY AND PREVENTING DEEP MOISTURE FROM ADVECTING NORTH TO OUR
LATITUDE. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MAINLY RAIN, ALTHOUGH SOME WET
SNOW MAY MIX IN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.
THE LIMITED PRECIP FRIDAY WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY, THEN
DRIFT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
MAINLY DRY WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AND MAY SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WITH MINIMAL IMPACT. RAIN MAY
MIX WITH A LITTLE WET SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION AND HEAD NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NATION, WITH A SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES LATER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY WITH UP TO 24 HOURS OF TIMING
DIFFERENCE SHOWING IN ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
WHILE THERE IS TIMING UNCERTAINTY, THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A WARM
RAIN SYSTEM WITH MINIMAL CHANCES OF WINTER WEATHER ON THE BUSY
TRAVEL DAYS LEADING UP TO THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A PATTERN CHANGE UNFOLDING THEREAFTER WITH A
TREND TOWARDS COLDER AND MORE WINTRY WEATHER JUST AFTER THANKSGIVING.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST INTO
WESTERN NY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP A COOL NORTHERLY
FLOW LOCKED IN PLACE TODAY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH, ALONG WITH
JUST ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME LAKE CLOUDS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE EAST-WEST
PORTION OF I-90 FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER EAST TO SOUTHERN OSWEGO
COUNTY INCLUDING THE LOWER GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTHERN FINGER LAKES
REGION. THESE LOW LEVEL DECKS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE HIGH-END
MVFR TO LOW VFR (025-045) RANGE AND MAINLY IMPACT KROC/KIAG THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON, WITH CONFIDENCE HIGHEST FOR
KROC TO SEE MVFR. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
WIDESPREAD VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME WARM
ADVECTION MID AND UPPER LEVEL DECKS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
PROVIDE A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES THROUGH
THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN BETWEEN EXITING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL PEAK ON
FRIDAY ON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH NO MORE THAN SOME LIGHT CHOP AT
TIMES THIS WEEKEND.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
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