348
FXUS61 KBUF 191754
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1254 PM EST WED NOV 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
FAIR WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS, BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS LIGHT RAIN TO OUR
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. PROGRESSIVELY
MILD AIR WILL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM BEFORE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SENDING TEMPERATURES
BACK TO JUST BELOW NORMAL. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS OUR REGION THIS PERIOD ENSURING
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.
THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS, FIRST FROM STUBBORN LAKE
CLOUDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE, AND TO THE EAST A
DECK OF STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE, ALONG WITH A SUBTLE
MOISTURE BEARING SHORTWAVE IN A ZONAL FLOW WILL INCREASE MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT. THIS WILL MINIMIZE THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT, SAVE FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
WHERE EARLY EVENING CLEARING WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP
BACK INTO THE TEENS EARLY, BEFORE INCREASING LATER TONIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIP TO THE EAST TOMORROW, WITH A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE CLOUDS, BEHIND THE DEPARTING WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS
AND INCOMING STORM SYSTEM TOMORROW TO ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A NORTHERN JET SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN A SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY CLOSED
LOW WILL SWING A TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA, CLIPPING THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.
A COLD FRONT, FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY,
WILL CROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERALL SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT THIS FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WHICH WILL LIE CLOSER TO THE BETTER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
WHILE PRECIPITATION WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH FEATURE WILL TAPER OFF
FRIDAY NIGHT, A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF RAIN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FOR
NOW, THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH, BUT IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND NORTHWARD WITH THIS FEATURE...LIGHT RAIN WILL
BECOME POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
PASSING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT THAT MAY BRING A LITTLE
SNOW OR RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
THE NEXT REGION-WIDE SYSTEM TO IMPACT US WILL ARRIVE FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP EARLY IN THE WEEK...REACHING
OUR REGION TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY PLAIN RAIN AS
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RUN IN THE 40S...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP
BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE LONE CAVEAT TO WIDESPREAD VFR TODAY WILL BE JUST ENOUGH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A LOW CLOUD DECK (025-045) ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO, AND ALSO ACROSS A PORTION OF JEFFERSON CO.
AND THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS WILL AT TIMES PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AT
KIAG AND KROC THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...A BROAD SFC RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WILL
LARGELY SUPPORT VFR AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY....MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND WAVES ON THE LAKES.
WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN BETWEEN EXITING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL PEAK ON
FRIDAY ON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH NO MORE THAN SOME LIGHT CHOP AT
TIMES THIS WEEKEND.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...THOMAS
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