334
FXUS61 KBUF 200231
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
931 PM EST WED NOV 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
FAIR WEATHER AND VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
OUR REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
ACROSS JAMES BAY BRINGS SOME LIGHT RAIN TO OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PROGRESSIVELY MILDER AIR OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LATER FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING ACROSS OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND AND
PROVIDING US WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
OVER THE PAST 2-3 HOURS A NARROW SWATH OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE
UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY HAS EXTENDED A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWESTWARD
TO THE WATERTOWN AREA...WITH SURFACE OBS/SOME WEBCAMS ALSO
SUGGESTING THAT SOME EMBEDDED AREAS OF FOG ARE ALSO FOUND FROM THE
WATERTOWN AREA NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON COUNTY. EXPECT
THIS TO LINGER ROUGHLY IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS...
BEFORE PROBABLY STARTING TO THIN OUT OVERNIGHT AS A VERY WEAK ESE
(DOWNSLOPE) FLOW DEVELOPS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE AND INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT WHILE MAINTAINING FAIR
DRY WEATHER. AT THE SAME TIME...WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A
PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL HELP TO ESCORT A SWATH OF MID AND HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THIS
GENERALLY HELPING TO BETTER LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIP TO THE EAST DURING THURSDAY,
WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. WITH MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TEMPORARILY THINNING OUT FOLLOWING TONIGHT'S
SHORTWAVE AND SHOT OF WARM ADVECTION...THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF
INCREASED SUNSHINE BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS APPROACHING LATER
IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE OUR GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO THE
MID AND UPPER 40S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A NORTHERN JET SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN A SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY CLOSED
LOW WILL SWING A TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA, CLIPPING THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.
A COLD FRONT, FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY,
WILL CROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERALL SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT THIS FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WHICH WILL LIE CLOSER TO THE BETTER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
WHILE PRECIPITATION WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH FEATURE WILL TAPER OFF
FRIDAY NIGHT, A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF RAIN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FOR
NOW, THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH, BUT IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND NORTHWARD WITH THIS FEATURE...LIGHT RAIN WILL
BECOME POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
PASSING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT THAT MAY BRING A LITTLE
SNOW OR RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
THE NEXT REGION-WIDE SYSTEM TO IMPACT US WILL ARRIVE FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP EARLY IN THE WEEK...REACHING
OUR REGION TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY PLAIN RAIN AS
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RUN IN THE 40S...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP
BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A NARROW SWATH OF LOW STRATUS AND EMBEDDED FOG WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FROM KART NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH ABOUT 05/06Z...WITH THIS THEN EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BREAK UP THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT AS A WEAK
ESE/SE (DOWNSLOPE) FLOW DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM OUR REGION OUT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY....MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN BETWEEN EXITING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL PEAK ON
FRIDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH NO MORE THAN SOME LIGHT CHOP
EXPECTED AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JJR/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...AR/JJR
MARINE...JJR/THOMAS
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