279
FXUS61 KBUF 200527
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1227 AM EST THU NOV 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY, BEFORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS
JAMES BAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
MILDER AIR OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING ACROSS OUR
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND PROVIDING US WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING WILL THIN OUT THROUGH THE DAY. OUR
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 40S, BUT COOLER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S, BUT 20S FOR THE NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A NORTHERN JET SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN A SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY CLOSED
LOW WILL SWING A TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA, CLIPPING THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.
A COLD FRONT, FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY,
WILL CROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERALL SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT THIS FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WHICH WILL LIE CLOSER TO THE BETTER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
WHILE PRECIPITATION WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH FEATURE WILL TAPER OFF
FRIDAY NIGHT, A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF RAIN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FOR
NOW, THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH, BUT IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND NORTHWARD WITH THIS FEATURE...LIGHT RAIN WILL
BECOME POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
PASSING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT THAT MAY BRING A LITTLE
SNOW OR RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
THE NEXT REGION-WIDE SYSTEM TO IMPACT US WILL ARRIVE FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP EARLY IN THE WEEK...REACHING
OUR REGION TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY PLAIN RAIN AS
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RUN IN THE 40S...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP
BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A NARROW SWATH OF LOW STRATUS AND EMBEDDED FOG WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FROM KART NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH ABOUT 08/09Z, WITH THIS THEN EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BREAK UP AS A WEAK ESE/SE (DOWNSLOPE) FLOW DEVELOPS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM OUR REGION OUT
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY....MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES TODAY.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO TIGHTEN BETWEEN EXITING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL PEAK ON FRIDAY JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFT HEADLINES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
ONTARIO FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH NO MORE THAN SOME LIGHT CHOP
EXPECTED AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...AR/JJR/TMA
MARINE...JJR/THOMAS/TMA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page