800
FXUS61 KBUF 201829
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
129 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY, BEFORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS
JAMES BAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MILDER
AIR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS WEEKEND AND PROVIDE US WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NY
TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT, AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM TO
WEST TO EAST.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JAMES BAY ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE WELL TO NORTH, HOWEVER AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE GREATEST (HOWEVER STILL LOW) CHANCE
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH, MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED, HOWEVER SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE, WIND GUST
UP TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. WARMER FRIDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S, MID 50S IN THE GENESEE VALLEY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AS A
SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A SHARPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND 250MB JET STREAK
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION, HOWEVER MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM (25-45%) CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHOWERS
MAY LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SUNDAY EVENING, HOWEVER MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AN EXITING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND MONDAY, WILL ALLOW FOR
BRIEF RIDGING TO SLIDE OVERHEAD BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THIS
TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MID-WEST TUESDAY, BEFORE PIVOTING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY.
TRANSLATING THIS PATTERN DOWN TO THE SURFACE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE OVERHEAD MONDAY SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
REGIONWIDE. THEN TUESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH, WILL BRING AN
ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO SLIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, BEFORE TRANSFERRING ITS ENERGY TO ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. ALL IN ALL, THIS WILL RESULT IN A
FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION MID-WEEK. ELEVATED FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AST MODEL GUIDANCE PACKAGES CONTINUE TO
HAVE THEIR DISCREPANCIES WITH TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. ALL IN
ALL, THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
THE REGION.
LOOKING FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND, COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MID-WEEK. OVERALL, WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD
TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO BY THANKSGIVING MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NY THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN TO MVFR TO
IFR BY FRIDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS AT LOWER ELVATIONS
AND IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY MORNING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF
THE LAKES. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT MOST OF THE
TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KJHW WHERE WINDS WILL BE LOWER AT
KJHW.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY....MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
TUESDAY...RAIN. MVFR/IFR IS LIKELY.
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES TODAY.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO TIGHTEN BETWEEN EXITING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL PEAK ON FRIDAY JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFT HEADLINES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
ONTARIO FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH NO MORE THAN SOME LIGHT CHOP
EXPECTED AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HSK/TMA
NEAR TERM...HSK
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page