017
FXUS61 KBUF 210649
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
149 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS JAMES BAY WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND AND PROVIDE
US WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JAMES BAY TODAY SENDING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE, BUT COULD
STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING
IN MILDER AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S, WITH MID 20S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGING WELL
TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COMBINED
WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE
WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH
A COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A LAKE
RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF SOME EXTRA LAKE CLOUDS SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT FOR AT LEAST THE BULK
OF SATURDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE PRESSING EAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
ON SUNDAY, WHILE A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST ACROSS HUDSON BAY CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH PARENT SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN
ACROSS TUG HILL AND THE WESTERN DACKS, WITH NO MORE THAN A SLUSHY
COATING EXPECTED THERE. AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SEE LESSER
CHANCES FOR A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE NY/PA BORDER. A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE MAY BRIEFLY
BECOME ESTABLISHED SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION
WET SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO WANE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FURTHER EAST INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE MOVES OVERHEAD BEHIND THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH PULLING TO OUR EAST.
DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE JUST A BIT BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL INCREASE TO A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN NY,
WHILE REMAINING A BIT BELOW NORMAL EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE COOLER
AIR REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE, ALONG WITH THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION WET SNOW SHOWERS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY AND
MILDER WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE OUR WEATHER BECOMES MUCH MORE
ACTIVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ONE NOTABLE TREND THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL
RUNS CONTINUES TO BE THE EARLIER PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MID
WEEK, WHICH IN TURN WILL ALSO USHER IN A PATTERN CHANGE TO COLDER
WEATHER THAT MUCH EARLIER. WHILE IT'S MUCH TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON
ANY DETAILS, THIS WOULD NOT ONLY PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS, BUT IF
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THANKSGIVING DAY POSSIBLY
IMPACTING TRAVEL IN THOSE LOCALIZED AREAS.
OTHERWISE, MILDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
WEEK AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRONT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE
SWINGING AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTHCENTRAL NY
TUESDAY THAT WILL LIKELY BRING A SHOT OF MEANINGFUL RAINFALL TO THE
REGION. RAIN SHOWER CHANCES LESSEN TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE RAMPING BACK
UP AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE WHILE SENDING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR REGION. COLDER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH ANY
LINGERING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR DEEPENS OVER THE REGION, WITH
POSSIBILITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BEGIN DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES BY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THANKSGIVING DAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, IT'S
WAY TOO FAR OUT TO GET INTO THE DETAILS REGARDING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
POTENTIAL. JUST SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE MOVE
CLOSER TO THE LONG THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A WEALTH OF MVFR CLOUDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE TAF SITES OF WNY
BETWEEN THROUGH 10Z, WITH THESE CLOUDS LIKELY TO LOWER TO IFR (KJHW)
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
DELAYED FLIGHT REDUCTIONS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO (KART) WITH VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER, CLOSER TO DEEPER
MOISTURE AND LIFT THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS, GENERALLY
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ALONG WITH THE SPREADING OF
MVFR CEILING HEIGHTS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE IFR/MVFR CEILING
HEIGHTS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER INTO TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS INTO THE LOWER
20 KNOT RANGE ACROSS THE AIRFIELDS.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILING HEIGHTS TO START, WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY....MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
TUESDAY...RAIN. MVFR/IFR IS LIKELY.
MARINE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THIS MORNING, AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN EXITING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING ON BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST BEHIND AN AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE,
BUT LACKING STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THERE WILL NOT BE ANY
SIGNIFICANT UPTICK IN WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES ENDING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH NO MORE THAN SOME LIGHT CHOP EXPECTED
AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
EST THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...THOMAS/TMA
MARINE...HSK/THOMAS/TMA
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