505
FXUS61 KBUF 212246
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
546 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS AND HILLTOP LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT BEHIND
A RECENTLY DEPARTED COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY WILL GRANT FAIR WEATHER, WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CLEAR
SKIES SATURDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE UPPER 20S EAST OF LAKE ERIE, AND
UPPER TEENS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN FROM THE
WEST, TEMPERATURES MODERATE, AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION REACHES WESTERN
NEW YORK SUNDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
A COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION HAS BROUGHT A WEALTH OF
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN & NORTH CENTRAL NY AREA.
BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST FOR MOST
OF THE NIGHT, WITH SOME CLEARING TOWARD DAY BREAK FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE OHIO
VALLEY...POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN SOUTHERN TIER LATE
TONIGHT. AS THIS WAVE PASSES TO THE EAST, AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION, SATURDAY WILL BE DRY, WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING TO JUST A FEW DEGREES FROM NORMAL MID-NOVEMBER TEMPERATURES.
BEHIND THE SURFACE HIGH INITIAL CLEAR SKIES, ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE TEENS ON THE TUG HILL. THICKENING
CLOUDS FROM THE WEST WILL DAMPER THE COOLING ACROSS WNY, WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK BY SUNDAY MORNING.
A NOTABLE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY MORNING, POSSIBLY
STARTING AS A WINTRY MIX BEFORE DAYTIME WARMING PROMOTES PLAIN RAIN.
MOISTURE IS SHALLOW WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME HILL TOP WET SNOWFLAKES POSSIBLE.
A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY, WITH FAIR
WEATHER, LIGHTER WINDS, AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
MONDAY NIGHT WILL SUPPORT MILD WEATHER INTO THE START OF TUESDAY.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A PAIR OF TROUGHS CROSSING THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES, SUPPORTING ACTIVE WEATHER
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
BEHIND SAID, A SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY, PUSHING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT TO FOLLOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. OVERALL THIS WILL NOT
ONLY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION BUT WINDY CONDITIONS AS
WELL.
DETAILS THEN BECOME FUZZY WITH HOW QUICK THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS AND
THEREFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR. THIS BEING SAID, WITH THE
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW INTO THE REGION
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP INTO LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THANKSGIVING DAY EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO. LAKE EFFECT WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AGAIN, THE EXACT LOCATIONS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO BE IN
QUESTION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MVFR TO VFR CLOUDS ARE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH
SOME HIGHER TERRAIN IFR AT TIMES.
HIGHER TERRAIN IFR AND LOWER CEILING HEIGHTS WILL LINGER FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER, WHERE AN UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LINGER LOW CEILING
HEIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXPECT THE VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS KIAG/KBUF TO SLOWLY EXPAND
EASTWARD ACROSS KROC AND KART TONIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH
DRIER AIR ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO VFR FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER (KJHW)
LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE...WITH VFR FOR THE LOWER ELEVATED TAF SITES
CONTINUING.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY....MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...RAIN. MVFR/IFR IS LIKELY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH NO MORE THAN SOME LIGHT CHOP EXPECTED
AT TIMES SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW CURRENT SMALL CRAFTS ON THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO END THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE ON
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS AS THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE PAST 20 KNOTS.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
LOZ043>045.
SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...SW/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...SW/THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
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