114
FXUS61 KBUF 220633
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
133 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH CLOUDS
GRADUALLY CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY. A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING
BY TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY WILL BRING SOME MIXED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON MONDAY, BRINGING FAIR WEATHER
AND MILDER TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A WEAK WAVE PASSING BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING,
WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF RAIN OR WET SNOW NUDGING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE
VERY LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY BEHIND
THE PASSING WAVE. NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLDER AIR HELPING TO KEEP
CLOUDS IN THROUGH THE MORNING, BEFORE GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES
PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING, BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER SHORTWAVE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME HILL TOP WET SNOWFLAKES POSSIBLE.
A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY, WITH FAIR
WEATHER, LIGHTER WINDS, AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
MONDAY NIGHT WILL SUPPORT MILD WEATHER INTO THE START OF TUESDAY.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A PAIR OF TROUGHS CROSSING THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES, SUPPORTING ACTIVE WEATHER
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
BEHIND SAID, A SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY, PUSHING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT TO FOLLOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. OVERALL THIS WILL NOT
ONLY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION BUT WINDY CONDITIONS AS
WELL.
DETAILS THEN BECOME FUZZY WITH HOW QUICK THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS AND
THEREFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR. THIS BEING SAID, WITH THE
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW INTO THE REGION
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP INTO LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THANKSGIVING DAY EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO. LAKE EFFECT WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AGAIN, THE EXACT LOCATIONS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO BE IN
QUESTION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGHER TERRAIN IFR AND LOWER CEILING HEIGHTS WILL LINGER FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER, INCLUDING KJHW WHERE AN UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LINGER LOW
CEILING HEIGHTS EARLY THIS MORNING. VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AIRFIELDS EARLY THIS MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY WITH DRIER AIR ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO VFR FOR THE SOUTHERN
TIER (KJHW), WITH VFR CONTINUING FOR THE LOWER ELEVATED TAF SITES
CONTINUING.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY....MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...RAIN. MVFR/IFR IS LIKELY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH NO MORE THAN SOME LIGHT CHOP EXPECTED
AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT.
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT A ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AS
THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE PAST 20 KNOTS.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...THOMAS/TMA
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