190
FXUS61 KBUF 220707
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
207 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH CLOUDS
GRADUALLY CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY. A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING
BY TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY WILL BRING SOME MIXED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON MONDAY, BRINGING FAIR WEATHER
AND MILDER TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A WEAK WAVE PASSING BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING,
WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF RAIN OR WET SNOW NUDGING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE
VERY LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY BEHIND
THE PASSING WAVE. NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLDER AIR HELPING TO KEEP
CLOUDS IN THROUGH THE MORNING, BEFORE GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES
PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING, BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER SHORTWAVE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TO NEW ENGLAND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. A CORRESPONDING AREA
OF INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST FROM
ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
MORNING, QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. OVERALL COVERAGE OF RESULTANT SHOWERS WILL BE
GREATEST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. TEMP
PROFILES SUGGEST PRECIP MAY START OUT AS SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX IN THE
MORNING BEFORE DAYTIME WARMING ENCOURAGES A CHANGEOVER TO MAINLY
RAIN, THOUGH SNOW MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY UP ACROSS THE
TUG/WESTERN DACKS.
850MB TEMPS ONLY DROP TO AROUND -6C SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT,
ENOUGH TO GENERATE A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. LAKE
ENHANCED AND UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW ACROSS
THE HILLTOPS THOUGH MOISTURE LOOKS QUITE LIMITED, ESPECIALLY OVER
AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF AN
INCH OR TWO SHOULD THEREFORE BE LIMITED TO THE TUG/WESTERN DACKS.
EXPANSIVE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WITH A 850MB RIDGE
AXIS RIGHT ON ITS HEELS. THIS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF THE LAST OF
THE LAKE ENHANCED/UPSLOPE SHOWERS WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS TO OPEN THE NEW WORK WEEK.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, A PAIR OF PHASING SHORTWAVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL CARVE OUT A
LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. MEANWHILE, A DEEPENING LOW
WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO QUEBEC ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A STRETCH OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES, THOUGH LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS DISPLAYING
TYPICAL STRUGGLES WITH THE PHASING PATTERN AND THUS A CONSENSUS ON
THE DETAILS.
THE GENERAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW WITH A COLD CANADIAN
AIRMASS WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM SHOULD SUPPORT AN INITIAL PERIOD OF
WARMER TEMPS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE COLDER AIRMASS WILL INEVITABLY PLOW INTO THE REGION
THEREAFTER, POTENTIALLY ACROSS WNY AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY EVENING
THOUGH THE ENTIRE AREA WILL LIKELY BE ENVELOPED BY THANKSGIVING
MORNING. IT FOLLOWS THAT ANY RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AND WITH
REINFORCING SYNOPTIC MOISTURE EXPECTED TO CIRCULATE BACK OVERHEAD,
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF BOTH
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE LOCALIZED IMPACTS TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL IN
THE REGION LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY...POTENTIAL BAND PLACEMENT,
INTENSITY, AND EVOLUTION ALL REMAIN IN QUESTION AT THIS RANGE, IN
ADDITION TO DAYTIME BL TEMPERATURES WHICH COULD SUPPORT A MIX WITH
RAIN AT TIMES. THUS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE SPECULATED ON,
THOUGH LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES DO INDICATE AN INITIAL PERIOD OF
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ON THANKSGIVING BECOMING MORE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY.
LASTLY, WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR THE WIND AND BLOWING SNOW
POTENTIAL LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A 40-50KT SW LLJ SETS
UP OVER THE LAKES WITHIN THE CAA REGIME. HAVE STUCK WITH NBM'S
RATHER MODEST GUST OUTPUT FOR THIS UPDATE DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND OVERALL MAGNITUDE, THOUGH GFS BUFKIT PROFILES HINT THAT A
PERIOD OF 40MPH+ GUSTS ARE A POSSIBILITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGHER TERRAIN IFR AND LOWER CEILING HEIGHTS WILL LINGER FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER, INCLUDING KJHW WHERE AN UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LINGER LOW
CEILING HEIGHTS EARLY THIS MORNING. VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AIRFIELDS EARLY THIS MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY WITH DRIER AIR ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO VFR FOR THE SOUTHERN
TIER (KJHW), WITH VFR CONTINUING FOR THE LOWER ELEVATED TAF SITES
CONTINUING.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY....MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...RAIN. MVFR/IFR IS LIKELY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH NO MORE THAN SOME LIGHT CHOP EXPECTED
AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT.
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT A ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AS
THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE PAST 20 KNOTS.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...THOMAS/TMA
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