579
FXUS61 KBUF 222215
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
515 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY,
PRODUCING A FEW RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE A FEW INCHES IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
TUG HILL PLATEAU AND WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. THE INITIAL WING OF WARM ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM OF THE SYSTEM
WILL BRING THICKENING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
MAY CLIP THE AREA, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA CLOSER TO STRONGER FORCING AND
DEEPER MOISTURE. IF ANY PRECIP MATERIALIZES, IT WILL BE A MIX OF
RAIN AND WET SNOW.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON
THE HEALS OF THE WARM FRONT, WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SUPPORTING A FEW MORE SHOWERS. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE AND PERSISTENCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AND
MOISTURE COEXIST, ALONG WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT
EAST/NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AS WELL SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, POST-FRONTAL WNW FLOW WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FROM LAKE ERIE, LAKE ONTARIO, AND LAKE HURON
LAKE EFFECT. MORE PERSISTENT UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL
CONTINUE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE GOES, EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO EXPECT ALL
SNOW FOR SEVERAL HOURS SUNDAY MORNING, THEN A TRANSITION TO RAIN OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILE THE HIGHER TERRAIN STAYS
ALL SNOW. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, EXPECT ALL RAIN FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND A RAIN/WET SNOW MIX ON THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN
MOST AREAS, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG
HILL AND WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE 1-3" OF
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY, WITH ANY MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENDING IN MOST
AREAS DURING THE EVENING. PRECIP WILL HOLD ON LONGER EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM LINGERING LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE
FLOW, BUT EVEN HERE EXPECT A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY.
IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH WIND GUSTS
IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE ACROSS WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE RIDGE WILL TRAVERSE THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
MONDAY PROVIDING A QUITE WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL EASILY CLIMB INTO THE 40S, PERHAPS EVEN SEE SOME
READINGS IN THE LOW 50S IN THE GENESEE VALLEY. A BIT COOLER ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE MERCURY READINGS WILL BE IN THE 30S (TUG
HILL) TO LOW 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFF TO OUR EAST MONDAY NIGHT, BUT SHOULD
MAINTAIN LARGELY DRY WEATHER UNTIL TUESDAY. AFTER THAT...SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND A NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN. AGAIN, IT WILL BE MILD AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS TUESDAY EVEN WARMER WITH UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK, SOLID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY.
WARM FRONT PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY
NIGHT,TAKING WITH IT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STEADY PRECIPITATION.
DRY SLOT THEN WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WHICH IS ADVERTISED TO APPROACH THE LOWER LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL RAPIDLY WRAP IN BEHIND THE
PASSING FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...VERY MILD CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY (50S TO NEAR 60F IN
SPOTS) AND BREEZY TOO, WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH,
ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
...POTENTIAL ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A
COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING
DAY. AS DEEPER (SYNOPTIC) MOISTURE BEGINS TO ARRIVE THURSDAY, LAKE
EFFECT BANDS WILL POTENTIALLY DEVELOP OR BEGIN TO ORGANIZE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES. THAT SAID...IT NEEDS TO BE NOTED THAT THERE
STILL REMAINS A 'FAIR' AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN BAND PLACEMENT AND
OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS JUNCTURE. THE KEY
TAKE AWAY FROM ALL OF THIS IS THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DO 'NOT' GET
FIXATED ON ANY ONE GIVEN MODEL AS THINGS WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR NOW...WILL MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AS
IT COULD IMPACT THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL. AS WAS MENTIONED...WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE WINDS WITH THE FRONT (LATE WEDNESDAY) THEN ALSO POST
FRONTAL FOR BLOWING SNOW (THURSDAY-FRIDAY) AS A 40-50KT SW LLJ SETS
UP OVER THE LAKES WITHIN THE CAA REGIME.
WHILE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS INITIALLY APPEAR TO FOCUS EAST AND NORTHEAST
OF THE LAKES THURSDAY, ALL INDICATIONS ARE THE BANDS WILL SLIP SOUTH
AS FLOW VEERS TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY. THE DEEP
SFC LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL ALSO EXIT OFF INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
BY FRIDAY EVENING, WITH A STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES. WE SHOULD SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS BEGIN TO
DWINDLE QUICKLY BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE RAPIDLY DIMINISHES AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS FALL.
OVERALL...WE SHOULD SEE LESS IMPACTS FROM THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS BY
SATURDAY, WITH QUIETER WEATHER AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINNING TO
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE MIDWEST.
AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY,
PRODUCING A FEW RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE BEST CHANCE
OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY MORNING EAST OF LAKE
ERIE, AND MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. RAIN WILL BE FAVORED FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH SNOW
FAVORED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
VSBY WILL DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES IN AREAS OF RAIN, AND IFR IN THE
SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. CIGS WILL STAY
MAINLY VFR TONIGHT, THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
IFR HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY SUNDAY, WITH
GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KNOT RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY....MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS AT TIMES.
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVIER LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. WINDY.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY,
BRINGING WITH IT A PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, THEN BECOME WEST
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
BRING SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST
MONDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
FOR LOZ045.
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
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