320
FXUS61 KBUF 230712
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
212 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY, PRODUCING A FEW
RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN MOST
AREAS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE A FEW INCHES IS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH TODAY. INITIAL WARM FRONT WILL
BRING A NARROW AREA OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
SYSTEM COLD FRONT FOLLOWS GENERALLY FOCUSED BETWEEN MID MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. MOST GUIDANCE BRINGS FRONT THROUGH DRY, BUT THE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW
SHOWERS. COLD ADVECTION WITHIN WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE INDUCED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE GOES, EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO EXPECT ALL SNOW FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING, THEN A
TRANSITION TO RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILE THE
HIGHER TERRAIN STAYS ALL SNOW. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, EXPECT ALL
RAIN FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND A RAIN/WET SNOW MIX ON THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
WHERE 1-3" OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE.
STRENGTHENING LOCAL SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITHIN THE COLD
ADVECTION WILL BRING WINDS GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT , WITH ANY MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENDING IN MOST AREAS
DURING THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD ON LONGER EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM LINGERING LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE
FLOW, BUT EVEN HERE EXPECT A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL CREST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY
FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES, BEFORE THE HIGH SLIDES OFF AND AWAY
FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY NIGHT. THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE,
SHEAR AND SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TAPER OFF THE LAST OF THE
LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE ACTIVITY BY THE MORNING, WITH DRY WEATHER THEN
PREVAILING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THE WEATHER TURNS MORE ACTIVE HEADING DEEPER INTO THE PERIOD AS AN
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CONUS.
BEHIND A LEADING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY, ANOTHER PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
PHASING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE FORMATION
OF A DEEP MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS SYSTEM IN TANDEM WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
LEADING SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, ONE ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, MUCH OF THE FOCUS REMAINS ON A STRONG COLD FRONT
STEMMING FROM THE CLOSED LOW THAT WILL PLOW THROUGH THE REGION FROM
THE WEST LATER WEDNESDAY. THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IN ITS WAKE
WILL BRING PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES, A 40-50KT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ, AND
A TRANSITION TO A LAKE EFFECT DOMINATED PATTERN. MORE ON THIS IN THE
LONG TERM SECTION BELOW, THOUGH LONG RANGE GUIDANCE GENERALLY
ADVERTISES AN ARRIVAL TIME OF MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS WNY,
WHICH COULD CAUSE SFC WINDS TO BECOME QUITE BREEZY EAST/NORTHEAST OF
LAKE ERIE, WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 30-40MPH. THIS SAID,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL OR MOSTLY
PLAIN RAIN UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SEE A MODEST
DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND, BECOMING QUITE MILD BY WEDNESDAY WHEN
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED, EVEN NEARING 60 IN THE
GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
...POTENTIAL ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
A MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM'S STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE ITS MARCH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH
OVERHEAD 850MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND -10C BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE MORE THAN COLD ENOUGH TO CAUSE A RATHER QUICK
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST AND CAUSE AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE LAKES. ONCE THE DRY SLOT MOVES THROUGH AND
REINFORCING SYNOPTIC MOISTURE CIRCULATES BACK INTO THE REGION, LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AND POTENTIALLY ORGANIZE INTO FOCUSED BANDS
OFF BOTH LAKES. THESE BANDS MAY THEN PERSIST IN SOME FORM ALL THE
WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
WHILE ACCUMULATING SNOW AND LOCALIZED IMPACTS TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL
ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO LOOK INCREASINGLY PROBABLE, THERE
REMAINS A MODERATE AMOUNT OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THIS EVENT
WILL ULTIMATELY PLAY OUT. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO ASSESS THE
DETAILS IN REGARDS TO POTENTIAL BAND PLACEMENT, TIMING, AND
INTENSITY, AND AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON CONJECTURING
ABOUT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THIS SAID, A FEW GENERAL PATTERNS
HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT AMONG THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE PACKAGES AND
ENSEMBLES. NOTABLY, THERE IS A STRONG INDICATION OF AN INITIAL
PERIOD OF SW TO WSW FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BECOMING
MORE NW TO WNW BY FRIDAY. THIS WOULD IMPLY THE BANDS MAY FIRST SET
UP EAST TO NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES BEFORE THE BANDS CORRESPONDINGLY
SHIFT SOUTHWARD. IN ADDITION, THE 'BIG 3' MAINTAIN A BRISK 40-50KT
LLJ OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY, WHICH COULD CAUSE FURTHER ISSUES
WITH SFC WIND GUSTS AND BLOWING SNOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
POTENTIAL AS WELL.
OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE NORTHERN LOW TRACKS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES,
CAUSING DRIER AIR TO MOVE BACK OVER THE LAKES AND WINDS ALOFT TO
RELAX. ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM MAY THEN DRAW NEAR THE REGION FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER SATURDAY.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY, PRODUCING A FEW RAIN
AND WET SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE BEST CHANCE OF MORE ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION WILL BE THIS MORNING EAST OF LAKE ERIE, BUT MUCH OF
THE DAY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT. RAIN WILL BE
FAVORED FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH SNOW FAVORED ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
VSBY WILL DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES IN AREAS OF RAIN, AND IFR IN THE
SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. CIGS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO MVFR FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IFR HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL
BECOME BREEZY, WITH WESTERLY GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KNOT RANGE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY....MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS AT TIMES.
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVIER LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. WINDY.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY, BRINGING WITH IT A
PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
MORNING, THEN BECOME WEST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BY
MIDDAY. THIS WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO LAKE ERIE
AND LAKE ONTARIO.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM
EST MONDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR LOZ045.
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/TMA
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/TMA
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