850
FXUS61 KBUF 231803
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
103 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING,
WITH WET SNOW MIXING IN ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MORE PERSISTENT LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN AND HIGHER TERRAIN WET SNOW WILL CONTINUE EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY
WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE. THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN BY TUESDAY, WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
LATE WEDNESDAY USHERING IN GUSTY WINDS AND A RETURN TO LOCALIZED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MOST PERSISTENT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOUND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THIS EVENING, WHERE MORE FAVORABLE DEEP
SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE AND ASCENT ARE FOUND WITHIN THE DPVA/HEIGHT
FALLS AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. LOW LEVEL FORCING FROM UPSLOPE
FLOW AND SOME LIMITED LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE PRECIP
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MAINLY RAIN FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH WET SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE TOP OF
THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WILL
LIKELY SEE 1-3" OF WET SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH
NOTHING IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
ELSEWHERE, WNW FLOW WILL SUPPORT A FEW MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEAK DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY
AND SOME MEANDERING BANDS OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE HURON LAKE EFFECT.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN, WITH SOME WET SNOW POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HILLTOPS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES.
TONIGHT, HIGH-RES CAMS AND THE CANADIAN RGEM CONTINUE TO FORECAST A
BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, SUPPORTED BY AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO
GEORGIAN BAY. THIS SHOULD STAY MAINLY RAIN, ALTHOUGH A FEW WET
SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO
EAST. THE LAST OF THE UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
WILL END BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY.
MONDAY, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES, REACHING THE EAST COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE CLOUDS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL CLEAR, WITH
SUNSHINE THEN FADING BEHIND SOME WARM ADVECTION MID/HIGH CLOUDS
LATER IN THE DAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SURFACE RIDGE EXITS OUT TO SEA MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL MAINTAIN
OVERALL DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...A
LEADING SHORTWAVE WILL ADVANCE A WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT TOWARDS AND
THEN INTO THE LOWER LAKES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD OF
STEADY WIDESPREAD RAIN WHICH LASTS INTO TUESDAY EVENING. AS THE WARM
FRONT ADVANCES EAST AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
THEN BECOME LESS STEADY WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE/SHOWERS LIKELY INTO
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...MILD CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER
LAKES TUESDAY WHERE MERCURY READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S, A BIT COOLER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
A DEEP NEARLY VERTICALLY STACK CYCLONE FOUND OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY WILL THEN DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT EAST INTO AND
THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT 'BIG' CHANGES ACROSS
THE REGION, NOT ONLY COLDER BUT QUITE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
WITH THE FRONT THEN POST FRONTAL. IN FACT...WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
WILL BE QUITE COMMON, EVEN STRONGER WINDS MAY POTENTIALLY DEVELOP
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. AGAIN WE
WILL BE LOOKING AT MILD CONDITONS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S TO EVEN NEAR 60F IN SPOTS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
...POTENTIAL ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PLOW EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
WEDNESDAY EVENING. A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WILL SPILL IN ACROSS THE REGION WITH H850 T'S PLUMMETING TO -7C TO
-9C OVERNIGHT. THAT SAID...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
BECOME FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME MEASURE OF A LAKE RESPONSE
FIRST OFF LAKE ERIE AND THEN LATER ON OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS WE HEAD
INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT THERE STILL REMAINS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT EVENT AT THIS
JUNCTURE. JUST TO NAME A FEW ISSUES...LASTEST (12Z) GUIDANCE IS
STRUGGLING WITH BAND PLACEMENT OVER TIME WHICH WILL IMPACT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OVER ANY GIVEN LOCATION. ALSO...BEHIND THE FRONT THE AIRMASS
IS FAIRLY DRY BEFORE DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WRAPS BACK INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. THATS NOT TO SAY WE WON'T SEE SOME RESPONSE, IT
JUST MAY NOT BE ALL THAT ORGANIZED OR INTENSE AT FIRST. AS WAS NOTED
PREVIOUSLY...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE PACKAGES AND ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW A
PERIOD OF SW TO WSW FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BECOMING
MORE NW TO WNW BY FRIDAY. THIS WOULD IMPLY THE BANDS MAY FIRST SET
UP EAST TO NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES BEFORE THE BANDS CORRESPONDINGLY
SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER TIME.
SNOWFALL WILL NOT BE THE ONLY ISSUE TO DEAL WITH AS A DECENT LLJ
ALOFT (40-50 KNOTS) WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN BRISK SFC WINDS TOO. THIS
WILL POTENTIALLY CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW FOR THOSE
IMPACTED BY THE LAKE EFFECT. EVEN WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...IT DOES
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE THE LAKE EFFECT DIMINISH AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT MEAN QUITE WEATHER IS ON THE
HORIZON. AS QUICKLY AS THE LAKE EFFECT DIMINISHES THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO DRAW NEAR THE LOWER LAKES AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY
AND THEN LAST INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A MIXED BAG
OF PRECIPITATION INITIALLY BEFORE WARMING ENOUGH TO CHANGE TO ALL
RAIN.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WITH SOME WET SNOW MIXING IN ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
MAINLY VFR VSBY. MORE PERSISTENT LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND HIGH
TERRAIN WET SNOW WILL CONTINUE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH IFR VSBY IN THE SNOW ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT, WITH THE
LAST OF THE PRECIP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
ENDING BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY.
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN LOWER END VFR/MVFR FOR MOST OF THE AREA,
AND IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
THEN SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING WITH A RETURN TO VFR. IT WILL REMAIN QUITE WINDY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KNOT RANGE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY
WITH VFR AND LIGHTER WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. TURNING VERY WINDY LATE.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO. VERY WINDY.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
PRODUCING A PERIOD OF SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE
ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS AND WAVES WILL THEN SUBSIDE FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
TO QUEBEC BY LATE THURSDAY, WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWING THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF GALES LIKELY ON LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ045.
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
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