216
FXUS61 KBUF 240800
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
300 AM EST MON NOV 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN BY TUESDAY, WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE
WEDNESDAY USHERING IN GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
EAST OF THE LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
QUEBEC. THIS WILL PULL FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE
AREA WITH DIMINISHING LAKE RESPONSE AND UPSLOPE COMPONENT EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY, REACHING THE EAST COAST BY
LATE AFTERNOON. LINGERING LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE CLOUDS THIS
MORNING WILL CLEAR, WITH SUNSHINE THEN FADING BEHIND SOME WARM
ADVECTION MID/HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. SURFACE RIDGE EXITS
OUT TO SEA TONIGHT, BUT WILL MAINTAIN OVERALL DRY WEATHER.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
UNSETTLED BUT GENERALLY MILD WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND MUCH
OF WEDNESDAY AS A DIFFUSE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A DEEP, NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE
FORMER WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY. THESE SHOULD REACH THE NORTH COUNTRY LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING, WITH WNY THEN TAPERING OFF TO
LIGHTER SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WHICH WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE DEEPENING LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRIVE A
STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE WELL INTO THE 50S AND
EVEN LOW 60S ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES, WHICH WILL
KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE WARM SECTOR ALL PLAIN RAIN. ATTENTION
CONTINUES TO BE ON THE ENVIRONMENT BEHIND THIS FRONT WHICH WILL FEEL
A FULL SEASON APART AS 850MB TEMPS ACROSS WNY FALL FROM AROUND +5C
TO -6C BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITHIN THIS STRONG CAA REGIME
WILL BE AN EMBEDDED 45-55KT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ, WHICH IN ADDITION TO
THE PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE WINDS TO RAMP UP RATHER
QUICKLY. DEEP BL MIXING EVIDENT ON MODEL SOUNDINGS COULD SUPPORT
GUSTS 30-40MPH IN MANY AREAS ACROSS WNY, WITH ADDITIONAL FUNNELING
UP THE LONG AXIS OF LAKE ERIE PUSHING GUSTS TO NEAR 50MPH DOWNWIND
OF THE LAKE. AT THE LEAST, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE HILLTOPS
EAST OF THE LAKE COULD BEGIN TO MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW NEAR DUSK.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
...ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT...
A DEEP MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO CENTRAL QUEBEC BY THURSDAY EVENING. BEHIND THE
SYSTEM'S STRONG COLD FRONT, A BRISK FLOW OF COLD AIR (850MB T'S
AROUND -9C) AND THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND IMPACTS TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL DOWNWIND OF BOTH LAKES.
THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY HOW THIS EVENT
WILL EVOLVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, NAMELY IN REGARDS TO EXACT
BAND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF EXPECTED SHIFTS IN ORIENTATION. MID TO
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE PACKAGES ARE CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING AN INITIAL
PERIOD OF SW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THIS POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT LOOKS
RATHER DRY WITH DGZ MOISTURE NOTABLY LACKING ON NAM/GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. THUS THE DEVELOPING BANDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
INTENSE (OR AS FAR NORTH) AS THE MORE NOTORIOUSLY AGGRESSIVE
CMCNH/CMCREG AT THIS TIME, THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
TRENDS. ONCE THE LOW CROSSES THE ON/QC BORDER TO THE NORTH AROUND
MIDDAY THURSDAY THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY, EVENTUALLY
TURNING NW/WNW ORIENTED LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS
WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL ADVECT OVERHEAD WITH
GREATER SUPPORT FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.
WHILE THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE WIND SHIFTS AND THUS BAND PLACEMENT
AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN IN QUESTION AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED,
WITH EXPECTED HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS GENERAL
PATTERN, WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED WITH THIS UPDATE FOR
THE COUNTIES EAST OF THE LAKES. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON
SPECULATING ON RANGES FOR POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS UNTIL THE
DETAILS BECOME CLEARER, BUT THE GREATEST SNOWFALL OFF LAKE ERIE IS
EXPECTED WELL SOUTH OF BUFFALO ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE, WYOMING,
CHAUTAUQUA, AND CATTARAUGUS, WHILE OFF LAKE ONTARIO ON AND
AROUND THE TUG HILL/WESTERN DACKS REGION. IN THESE AREAS, THE
TYPICALLY LOW-BIASED NBM DEPICTS A 70-90% CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL
TOTALS EXCEEDING 7". THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD CAUSE
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACROSS OSWEGO AND POTENTIALLY WEST TOWARDS
WAYNE AND N. CAYUGA COUNTIES INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IT
ALSO SHOULD CERTAINLY NOT GO UNMENTIONED THAT THE 40-50KT LLJ
WILL LINGER OVERHEAD THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, EVEN AS THE WINDS
ALOFT SHIFT FROM WSW TO NW. WITH THE DEEP COLD AIRMASS, THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH EFFICIENT MIXING TO SEE CONTINUED GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS IN MANY AREAS, WHICH COULD FURTHER EXACERBATE TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE
PRIMARY LAKE EFFECT AREAS.
THE LAKE EFFECT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
AND THE AMOUNT OF DRIER AIR/WIND SHEAR INCREASES. WE WILL STRUGGLE
TO COMPLETELY DRY OUT HOWEVER AS ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM EMERGES
FROM THE MIDWEST AND BRINGS RENEWED CHANCES FOR PRECIP BY SUNDAY.
WHILE STILL A VERY LONG WAYS OFF, THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MORE CHANCE FOR RAIN THAN
SNOW.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. CEILINGS FOR
THE MOST PART WILL BE LOW END VFR, WITH SOME LIMITED COVERAGE
OF MVFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW
TOWARDS SUNRISE WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
COULD SEE PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG WITH MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KJHW,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY
WITH VFR AND LIGHTER WINDS. HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STARTS TO MOVE
IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. TURNING VERY WINDY LATE.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO. VERY WINDY.
MARINE
WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH EXITS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
TO QUEBEC BY LATE THURSDAY, WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWING THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF GALES LIKELY ON LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR NYZ006>008.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ040-041.
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
LOZ043>045.
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/TMA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page