322
FXUS61 KBUF 251033
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
533 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE REGION TODAY, SUPPORTING A
PERIOD OF RAIN. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLOW THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, USHERING IN GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY, WITH A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WARM FRONT. THE RAIN WILL SPREAD
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING, REACHING THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF INCH. DESPITE THE
RAIN, IT WILL BE A MILD DAY WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S.
DRY SLOT WORKS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WITH A
DIMINISHING TREND TO THE RAIN IN THE EVENING, BEFORE SHOWERS
PICK UP AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...
KEY POINTS WITH THIS UPDATE...
-INITIAL PLACEMENT OF THE LAKE EFFECT BAND OFF LAKE ERIE REMAINS A
CONCERN WEDNESDAY EVENING.
-RESIDENCE TIME OF THE LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE ERIE. HOW FAST WILL
WINDS SHIFT FROM SW TO W TO WNW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...
A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACK LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY WILL DIRECT A POTENT COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PLOW THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN CENTRAL NEW YORK BY WEDNESDAY EVENING,
WITH A COLDER AIRMASS POURING INTO THE REGION. A BROAD AND DEEP
TROUGH WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ENTIRE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND ALSO NORTHEAST. A COLD CYCLONIC SW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
VEER TO W AND THEN WNW AS WE HEAD INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. AS THE
COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION, IT WILL INITIATE A LAKE RESPONSE
WHICH MAY INITIALLY BEGINS A A RAIN-SNOW MIX THEN TRANSITION OVER TO
ALL SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR DEEPENS.
WINDS...
AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS AND THEN CROSS THE AREA, IT WILL BECOME
QUITE WINDY WITH GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. THE STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD EAST AND
INLAND ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AS SURFACE WINDS VEER
MORE WESTERLY, WITH GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH POSSIBLE AREAWIDE. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN LAKE
EFFECT AREAS, ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
DENSITY SNOW MAY HELP TO MITIGATE THIS TO SOME EXTENT. STRONG WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
AT TIMES PRODUCING AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
OFF LAKE ERIE...
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE LOWER LAKES WEDNESDAY EVENING WE
WILL SEE LAKE EFFECT RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN-SNOW DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF
THE LAKE. THAT SAID...THERE STILL CONTINUES TO BE SOME ISSUES WITH
BAND PLACEMENT AND ALSO RESIDENCE TIME OF THE BAND ONCE IT DEVELOPS
NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE. LATEST GUIDANCE (00Z CANADIAN-NH/RGEM)
CONTINUES TO SHOW IT INITIALLY NEAR THE BUFFALO METRO AREA OR JUST
NORTH OF THE CITY WEDNESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE
SHOW THE BAND PUSHING SOUTH FAIRLY QUICKLY AND THEREFORE MAY
POTENTIALLY LIMIT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. SPEAKING OF WHICH...THE
AIRMASS IS NOT ALL THAT COLD AT THE START OF THE EVENT. INFACT...P-
TYPE MAY INITIALLY BE IN THE FORM OF 'RAIN' THEN A TRANSITION TO A
RAIN/WET SNOW MIX WILL OCCUR IN THE EVENING. EVENTUALLY IT WILL
BECOME COLD ENOUGH OR DYNAMICALLY COOL TO THE POINT TO SUPPORT ALL
SNOW BY MID-EVENING. THE QUESTION AT THIS POINT...WHERE WILL THE
BAND BE? THIS WILL BE THE ISSUE GOING FORWARD WHICH WILL DETERMINE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS ACROSS THE AREA. ONE THINGS DOES APPEAR
CERTAIN, THE BAND WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE CITY BY THURSDAY
MORNING AND 'LIKELY' FOCUSED ACROSS THE BOSTON HILLS AND WYOMING
COUNTY.
JUST TO DRIVE IT HOME... BAND 'PLACEMENT' AND 'RESIDENCE' TIME WILL
BE AN ISSUE WEDNESDAY EVENING-NIGHT. GIVEN THAT...WILL 'NOT' BE
UPGRADING THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WARNING WITH THIS UPDATE.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...A W-WNW FLOW WILL DIRECT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EAST
AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL WRAP DEEPER
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE BACK IN ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY WITH EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS CLIMBING NORTH OF 15K FEET. THIS COMBINED WITH UPSTREAM
CONNECTIONS WILL 'LIKELY' SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AT TIMES INTO FRIDAY, MAINLY ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS CO.
LAKE SNOWS WILL EVER SO SLOWLY DIMINISH FRIDAY AS SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
GETS STRIPPED AWAY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO EXIT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH, WE STILL WILL SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS E-ESE
OF THE LAKE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...
WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME LAG TIME...LAKE EFFECT WILL EVENTUALLY
ORGANIZE NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE. A RELATIVELY WEAK BAND OF RAIN OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY, WITH SOME UNRELATED
UPSLOPE ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY, THE LAKE EFFECT WILL THEN BEGINNING TO SETTLING
SOUTH AS A SECONDARY FRONT SENDS IT ACROSS WATERTOWN AND THEN
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN TUG HILL REGION. THE LAKE EFFECT MAY NOT BE TOO
ORGANIZED OR STRONG THROUGH A PORTION OF THANKSGIVING DAY, WITH MORE
SHEAR AND LESS FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMPARED TO LAKE
ERIE.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS AND MORE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL MATERIALIZE POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR A
WELL ORGANIZED BAND TO SETUP FROM WAYNE TO WESTERN OSWEGO CO. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITOR CLOSELY AS ADDITIONAL HEADLINES MAY BE
NEEDED.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY PASS THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES
SATURDAY MORNING WITH ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT WEAKENING OR COMING TO
AN END.
A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MID-SECTION OF THE NATION SATURDAY
NIGHT, WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING AN AREA OF LIGHT SYNOPTIC
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT IN
GENERAL EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SUNDAY WITH ANY SNOW
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS ADVERTISED TO BUILD IN FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH AS WE
HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
TODAY, WITH THIS RAIN ARRIVING BETWEEN 15 AND 21Z FROM WEST TO
EAST. CEILING HEIGHTS WILL LOWER TO MVFR WITHIN THE RAIN AND TO
IFR EVENTUALLY LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING, AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BUILDS. VISIBILITIES SHOULD STAY VFR WITH A LOW CHANCE
FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. TURNING VERY WINDY MID-DAY. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WITH IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS STARTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO. VERY WINDY.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE (ERIE) AND LIKELY (ONTARIO) OF
SNOW SHOWERS EAST/SOUTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
MARINE
QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
TO QUEBEC BY LATE THURSDAY, SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO PLOW
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GALES ON LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR NYZ006>008.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ010-011.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
LEZ040-041.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
SYNOPSIS...EAJ/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...THOMAS/TMA
MARINE...EAJ/HITCHCOCK/TMA
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