856
FXUS61 KBUF 252355
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
655 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MID-WEST/WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY,
SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD RAIN. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
PLOW ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY, USHERING IN GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVE WEATHER
SATURDAY, THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE REGION FOR THE LATER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MID-WEST/WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON, WILL CONTINUE TO TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY, AS OF THE
NOON-TIME HOUR, WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS WNY THIS AFTERNOON,
REACHING THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WARM FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF OF AN INCH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF THE RAINFALL HAVE CREPT UP INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
A DRY SLOW WILL WORK INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT.
WHILE THIS WILL SUPPORT A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE RAIN THIS
EVENING, SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP TONIGHT AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ADVECTS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
BY WEDNESDAY, A NEARLY STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, WILL
SUPPORT ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO TRAMPLE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES, FIRST TACKLING WESTERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
REACHING THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOT
ONLY WILL THIS SYSTEM BRING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR RAIN TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION, BUT IN ITS WAKE EXPECT BLUSTERY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS WITH LAKE EFFECT TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOOKING
FURTHER INTO THE WINDS, STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK, SPREADING INLAND
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND LAST THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THESE WINDS WILL THEN ARRIVE NORTHEAST OF WATERTOWN, LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, SPREADING ACROSS WATERTOWN. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
OF 40-50 MPH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALL OF
THIS BEING SAID, A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF WNY AND
INTO THE FINGER LAKES, FOR COUNTIES DIRECTLY DOWN WIND OF THE LAKES,
STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOULD MENTION, LAKE EFFECT WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INITIALLY
THIS WILL ALL START OFF AS RAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, SEE BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS!
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...
KEY POINTS WITH THIS UPDATE...
-FASTER SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF LAKE ERIE LAKE EFFECT BAND SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE BUFFALO METRO AREA WILL LIKELY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
-GREATEST SNOW AMOUNTS OFF LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST
OF THE LAKE AND WELL SOUTH OF BUFFALO.
-GREATEST SNOW AMOUNTS OFF LAKE ONTARIO ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.
-STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW, BUT THE
WET/SLUSHY NATURE OF THE SNOW WILL LIMIT THIS TO SOME EXTENT,
ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...
A STRONG, VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM
NORTHERN LAKE HURON WEDNESDAY EVENING TO CENTRAL QUEBEC BY THURSDAY
EVENING. COLD AIR WILL POUR BACK INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES,
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT LAKE RESPONSE. INITIAL SOUTHWEST
FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL QUICKLY VEER TO MORE WESTERLY BY LATER
THURSDAY, THEN MORE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, CARRYING
LAKE EFFECT BANDS STEADILY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS...
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN IMMEDIATELY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS WESTERN NY, WITH INITIAL GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH LIKELY
ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND NIAGARA FRONTIER. THE STRONG WINDS
WILL THEN MOVE EAST ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKESHORE LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
VEER TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST AND REMAIN ELEVATED. WIND
GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH WILL CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
WIND GUSTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL RESULT IN A FEW DOWNED TREE LIMBS
AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. WINDS WILL ALSO PRODUCE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW, BUT THE WET NATURE OF THE SNOW WILL MITIGATE THIS TO
SOME EXTENT, ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT.
OFF LAKE ERIE...
INITIAL BAND DEVELOPMENT WILL BE NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS NIAGARA COUNTY AND GRAND ISLAND. PRECIP
TYPE AT FIRST WILL BE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX, WITH A CHANGE TO ALL
WET SNOW BY MID TO LATE EVENING. THE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT WILL THEN
MOVE STEADILY SOUTH AND EAST AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS OVERNIGHT,
CARRYING A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTH ACROSS THE BUFFALO METRO
AREA. THE RAPID SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE BAND WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION EVEN AS THE BAND INTENSIFIES. IN GENERAL, EXPECT 2-5"
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER BUT UNCERTAINTY IS STILL FAIRLY HIGH
GIVEN THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES AND UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAST THE
SNOW WILL BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE, AND WHAT SNOW:WATER RATIOS WILL BE.
THE LAKE BAND WILL BE OVER OR EVEN A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE BUFFALO
SOUTHTOWNS BY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SPREADING
INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AS WELL. LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NW,
CARRYING MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD. AN
UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON WILL ALSO LIKELY COME INTO PLAY
AND ENHANCE SNOWFALL. THE SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST ESTIMATE FOR STORM TOTALS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER, BOSTON
HILLS, AND WESTERN WYOMING COUNTY IS 12-20 INCHES.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...
LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW WILL START TO ORGANIZE LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY. IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR THIS BAND
TO ORGANIZE, STAYING RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY, AND RAIN MAY
CONTINUE TO MIX IN FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE BAND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS WATERTOWN AND FORT DRUM THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THEN MOVE
STEADILY SOUTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, ENDING UP
IN SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE BAND SHOULD RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE TUG HILL PLATEAU THURSDAY EVENING, AS IT TIES
INTO AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON FOR A TIME. THE SNOW WILL
NOT LAST ALL THAT LONG ON THE TUG HILL, BUT WILL BE QUITE HEAVY WITH
2+"/HR SNOWFALL RATES.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, THE BAND OF SNOW WILL FOCUS SOUTHEAST
OF THE LAKE FROM PORTIONS OF WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES INTO
SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY, GRADUALLY WEAKENING LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.
STORM TOTALS OF 8-12" ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TUG HILL PLATEAU AND WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY KEEP ACCUMULATIONS MUCH LOWER FOR THE LOW
ELEVATIONS OF JEFFERSON COUNTY CLOSE TO LAKE ONTARIO AND THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER, PERHAPS ONLY A FEW SLUSHY INCHES. LATER IN THE EVENT
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, AN EARLY ESTIMATE OF 5-10" IS POSSIBLE
FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN WAYNE, NORTHERN CAYUGA, AND SOUTHERN OSWEGO
COUNTIES.
OUTSIDE OF MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, DEEP MOISTURE AND ASCENT FROM
THE PASSING MID LEVEL TROUGH COMBINED WITH LAKE HURON BANDING WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND MINOR COATING TO 2"
ACCUMULATIONS FOR MOST OF THE REGION OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE
EFFECT
AREAS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WHAT REMAINS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES SATURDAY
MORNING WILL QUICKLY END AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES.
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
BEFORE REACHING QUEBEC BY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A BRIEF
WARM UP AS IT PASSES NORTHWEST OF THE AREA, WITH WET SNOW MIXING
WITH RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR WINTRY MIX,
INCLUDING BRIEF, ISOLATED POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN AS WELL.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL THEN MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH SNOW POTENTIAL
WILL BE UNCERTAIN AS DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY MAY LIMIT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FOR THE 00Z TAFS MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FOUND AS A WARM
FRONT WITH AN AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE TAF
REGION. WHILE THERE ARE IMPROVEMENTS TO THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
WEST BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE WILL BE INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND
AREAS OF DRIZZLE WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF REGION THE FINAL 6 HOURS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS
OVER 40 KNOTS LIKELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. GUSTS NORTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO MAY REACH 40 KNOTS BY TAF CYCLE CLOSURE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO. VERY WINDY.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE (ERIE) AND LIKELY (ONTARIO) OF
SNOW SHOWERS EAST/SOUTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
SUNDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
ARRIVES.
MARINE
QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
TO QUEBEC BY LATE THURSDAY, SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO PLOW
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GALES ON LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON THE RIVERS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT TOMORROW, WITH
THE FRONT CROSSING LAKE ERIE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL VEER TO SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND
QUICKLY INCREASE IN SPEED, WITH SOUTHWEST GALES OVER LAKE ERIE
PUSHING WATERS NORTHEASTWARD UP THE LAKE. AT THIS TIME A RISE TO
7 FEET OR GREATER IS REASONABLE. LACKING A STRONG EASTWARD PUSH
TOMORROW, COMBINED WITH THE STARTING LOW LAKE WATERS MAY LIMIT
WATER RISES ABOVE WARNING LEVEL OF 8 FEET, THOUGH A STRONG
ENOUGH SOUTHWARD PUSH UP THE LAKE MAY NEGATE THESE INITIAL
LIMITING FACTORS. FOR NOW, A LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE
ON LAKE ERIE FOR A SEICHE, OF WHICH THE PEAK IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WITH
SUBSEQUENT RISES CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
NYZ001-002-010>012-019-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR NYZ001-002.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
NYZ003>005.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR NYZ004-005.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
NYZ006-007.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ006.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ007-008-012-019-020-085.
LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING FOR NYZ010-019-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR NYZ010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR LEZ020.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR LOZ030.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
LOZ042>045-062>065.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR SLZ022-024.
SYNOPSIS...EAJ
NEAR TERM...EAJ
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...EAJ/THOMAS/TMA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMAS
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