315
FXUS61 KBUF 260732
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
232 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, USHERING IN
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES
TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVE
WEATHER SATURDAY, THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE REGION FOR THE
LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A NEARLY STACK LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
ARRIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL PUSH A SHARP COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN A BROKEN
LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN, BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS. COLD ADVECTION WILL ALSO HELP GAIN MIXING
DEPTHS WHILE A STRONG 50 KNOT WIND FIELD BUILDS IN OVER WESTERN NEW
YORK, ALL WHILE BROADER SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. MOMENTUM TRANSFER
SCHEMES SUGGESTING SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50
MPH, WITH SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 55 MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE.
THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND LAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL ARRIVE NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO,
INCLUDING WATERTOWN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF WNY AND INTO THE FINGER LAKES, FOR COUNTIES
DIRECTLY DOWN WIND OF THE LAKES STARTING THIS AFTERNOON.
LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPS WITHIN THE COLD ADVECTION STARTING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS NIAGARA COUNTY AND GRAND
ISLAND. PRECIPITATION LIKELY BEGINS AS RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX, WITH
A CHANGE TO ALL WET SNOW BY MID TO LATE EVENING. THE BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT WILL THEN MOVE STEADILY SOUTH AND EAST AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
VEERS OVERNIGHT, CARRYING A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTH ACROSS
THE BUFFALO METRO AREA. THE RAPID SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE BAND
WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION EVEN AS THE BAND INTENSIFIES. IN
GENERAL, EXPECT 2-5" ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER BUT UNCERTAINTY IS
STILL FAIRLY HIGH GIVEN THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES AND UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW FAST THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE, AND WHAT SNOW:WATER
RATIOS WILL BE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
...ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO CONTINUE OFF BOTH LAKES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...
KEY TAKE AWAYS...
-LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OFF LAKE ERIE PUSHES SOUTH OF THE BUFFALO METRO
AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATING LAKE SNOW WILL THEN FOCUS
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
-LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL OVERALL BE DISORGANIZED
THURSDAY, MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS N. JEFFERSON COUNTY. LAKE SNOWS
STRENGTHEN BY THURSDAY EVENING WHILE SHIFTING SOUTH AND THEN
BECOMING FOCUSED SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
-WINDS WILL BE GUSTY (35 TO 50 MPH) THURSDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW.
SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AND DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY, WITH A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW SUPPORTING
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
WINDS...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND +45 KNOT LLJ ALOFT WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS (35 TO 50 MPH)
WITHIN THE FULLY MIXED CAA REGIME. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH FRIDAY THEN RELAX FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
OFF LAKE ERIE...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OFF LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE
BUFFALO METRO AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE BAND MAY EVEN AT THIS
POINT BE SOUTH OF THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS AS FLOW WILL HAVE VEERED TO
WEST AND THEN WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE MOST
IMPACTFUL SNOWS ON THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE FOUND OVER FAR SOUTHERN
ERIE, WESTERN WYOMING, CHAUTAUQUA AND ALSO CATTARAUGUS COUNTY. THAT
SAID...A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALLEGANY COUNTY
WHERE WE ARE LIKELY TOO SEE SOME DECENT ACCUMULATION (+7") ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY. OVERALL...SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 10-
20 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS
WITHIN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOWS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL BE ONGOING OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND PRIMARILY
FOCUS ACROSS N. JEFFERSON CO. EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT LAKE SNOWS WILL STAY
DISORGANIZED UNTIL A SECONDARY FRONT APPROACHES LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, OR EVEN UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. LAKE SNOWS WILL
THEN RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OVER N. JEFFERSON CO. AND BEGINS TO PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS WATERTOWN, ARRIVING ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AS FLOW VEERS TO THE WEST THEN EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY
MORNING. BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, THE BAND SHOULD BE FOUND OVER
OSWEGO COUNTY AND FAIRLY INTENSE AS IT TIES INTO UPSTREAM
CONNECTIONS WITH SNOWFALL RATES POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 2+"/HR FOR A
TIME. THE BAND WILL THEN SETTLE ACROSS WAYNE AND N. CAYUGA LATER
FRIDAY MORNING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MOVEMENT INTO OSWEGO CO.
AT TIMES. AFTER THAT...THE BAND WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT
AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO DEPLETE.
STORM TOTALS OF 8-12" ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TUG HILL PLATEAU AND WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY KEEP ACCUMULATIONS MUCH LOWER FOR THE LOW
ELEVATIONS OF JEFFERSON COUNTY CLOSE TO LAKE ONTARIO AND THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER, PERHAPS ONLY A FEW SLUSHY INCHES. LATER IN THE EVENT
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, AN EARLY ESTIMATE OF 7-10" IS POSSIBLE
FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN WAYNE, NORTHERN CAYUGA, AND SOUTHERN OSWEGO
COUNTIES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WHAT REMAINS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OFF THE LAKES SATURDAY
MORNING WILL QUICKLY END AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES.
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
BEFORE REACHING QUEBEC BY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A BRIEF
WARM UP AS IT PASSES NORTHWEST OF THE AREA, WITH WET SNOW MIXING
WITH RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR WINTRY MIX,
INCLUDING BRIEF, ISOLATED POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN AS WELL.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND...ALL INDICATIONS ARE IT WILL TURN SOMEWHAT
COLDER WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM PASSES
TO OUR SOUTH. AN EVEN COLDER AIRMASS MAY VISIT THE LOWER LAKES LATE
IN THE WEEK BUT THAT IS WAY TO FAR OUT TO HAVE ANY REASONABLE
CONFIDENCE. STAY TUNED!
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS
OVER 40 KNOTS LIKELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. GUSTS NORTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO MAY REACH 40 KNOTS BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO. VERY WINDY.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE (ERIE) AND LIKELY (ONTARIO) OF
SNOW SHOWERS EAST/SOUTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
SUNDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
ARRIVES.
MARINE
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY TO
QUEBEC BY LATE THURSDAY, SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO PLOW
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GALES ON LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON THE RIVERS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A
SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE, WITH
SOUTHWEST GALES CAUSING LAKE LEVELS TO RISE. A LAKESHORE FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ON LAKE ERIE FOR A SEICHE, OF WHICH
SHOULD PEAK THIS EVENING, WITH SUBSEQUENT RISES CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. LEVELS MAY APPROACH 7 TO 7.5 FEET,
WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT WARNING CRITERIA OF 8 FEET AT BUFFALO
IS REACHED DUE TO CURRENT LAKE LEVELS BEING QUITE LOW (UNDER 2
FEET). LAKE LEVELS THIS HIGH CAN STILL CAUSE MINOR LAKESHORE
FLOODING IMPACTS.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ001-
002-010>012-019-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR NYZ001-002.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
NYZ003>005.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR NYZ004-005.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
NYZ006-007.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ006.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ007-008-012-019-020-085.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR NYZ010-019-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR NYZ010-011.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR NYZ021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
LEZ020.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR LOZ030.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM
EST THURSDAY FOR SLZ022-024.
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...EAJ/THOMAS/TMA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMAS/TMA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page