537
FXUS61 KBUF 290647
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
147 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS
COUNTIES.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ISSUED FOR ORLEANS,
MONROE, WAYNE COUNTIES 10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ISSUED FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 10 AM
FRIDAY AREA-WIDE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TODAY, ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH LAKE SNOW LINGERING INTO THE WEEKEND.
2) A FRIGID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TODAY, ESPECIALLY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH LAKE SNOW LINGERING INTO THE WEEKEND.
A 500 HPA LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHEAST TODAY, WITH A SHORTWAVE
AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS TROUGH AT 850 HPA WILL DROP TO -
24C OVER LAKE ONTARIO, WITH -20C AIRMASS JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET
OFF THE GROUND LINGERING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE
UPSTREAM A +2SD 1048 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SETTLE
SOUTHWARD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SUPPLYING FRESH ARCTIC AIR ON A NORTHWEST TO
NORTHERLY FLOW.
FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW, THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
MAINTAIN AN INTENSE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS MORNING FOR OSWEGO
AND FAR NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES. AN ANTICYLCONIC STRUCTURE TO THIS
SNOWBAND, AND STRONG BAND CONVERGENCE LEADING TO IMPRESSIVE VERTICAL
ACCENT IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES OF 3"/HR ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE SHORELINE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
FEET OF SNOW TO OSWEGO COUNTY, AND NEARLY A FOOT TO THE FAR NORTHERN
TIP OF CAYUGA COUNTY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE MIDDAY, AND
THIS FEATURE WILL CARRY THE SNOWBAND TO ALONG THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN
SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO. THOUGH SHALLOW, PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITHIN
THE SNOW DGZ, WHICH WILL LIE CLOSE TO THE GROUND, WILL LINGER ALONG
THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE NORTHERLY
TO NORTHWEST FLOW DIRECTING MULTIPLE BANDED SNOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN
LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE. FLUFFY SNOW IS EXPECTED WITHIN THIS COLD
AIRMASS, WITH 12- HOUR PERIOD TO PERIOD ACCUMULATIONS OF SEVERAL
INCHES...THAT OVER THE COURSE OF TWO DAYS WILL ADD UP TO A HALF TO
ONE FOOT OF SNOW. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THESE
LAKE SNOWS. GREATEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED MONROE EASTWARD
TO THE SOUTHEAST SHORELINE. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL
LIKELY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE SATURDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY AS WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY WITH A RAPIDLY DEEPENING
COASTAL LOW TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
ELSEWHERE A NORTHWEST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY
DRIVE A GEORGIAN BAY PLUME OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS NIAGARA, THE
NORTH TOWNS OF BUFFALO AND TOWARDS BATAVIA. A NARROW STRIP OF 2-4"
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE HERE, AND IF THE NARROW SNOWBAND
MATERIALIZES COULD SEE AMOUNTS TOTAL JUST OVER FOUR INCHES.
GIVEN THE NARROWNESS OF THE LAKE BAND, HAVE ELECTED NOT TO ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SNOW THIS EARLY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, INITIAL SOUTHWEST LAKE ERIE SNOWBAND THIS MORNING FROM A
SMALL PATCH OF OPEN WATER OVER LAKE ERIE IS WEAKENING AS WINDS ALOFT
VEER, WITH SNOW NOW ORIENTED ACROSS THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS AND
SOUTHWARD INTO THE BOSTON HILLS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A FRIGID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
A LARGE -2SD TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER ON/QC PROVINCES WILL
EJECT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE
DEEP ARCTIC AIRMASS WITHIN THIS TROUGH WILL EFFECTIVELY KEEP THE
FRIGID, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOCKED IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW ZERO, WITH NEGATIVE
TEENS NOT UNCOMMON DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. COLDEST OF CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT CAUSING 850 MB
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET BACK TO BETWEEN -23C AND -25C. WITH A LIGHT TO
MODEST NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT, THIS WILL
GENERATE WIND CHILLS WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS IN MOST AREAS. IT
APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THESE VALUES WILL BE MORE IN THE
-20F TO -30F RANGE OR EVEN LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING.
A RATHER PRONOUNCED MODIFICATION OF THE OVERHEAD AIRMASS WILL OCCUR
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER
SOUTH AND INTERACTS WITH A SECONDARY WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF.
THIS IS WHAT WILL SPUR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE ROBUST COASTAL LOW
NEAR THE CAROLINAS, THOUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES 850MB TEMPS WILL
QUICKLY WARM TO AROUND -9C OR -10C. NOT WARM BY MOST MEASURES, AND
SFC TEMPS WILL STILL IN ALL LIKELIHOOD REMAIN WELL BELOW FREEZING,
THOUGH THIS SHOULD HELP TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE FRIGID WIND CHILLS.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FOR THE 06Z TAFS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS BRINGING IFR OR LOWER
FLIGHT CONDITIONS, WITH THE BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO MUCH MORE
INTENSE. A TROUGH WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO
MIDDAY, BRINGING THE BAND OF SNOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO SOUTHWARD TO
KROC, KIAG AND AT TIMES KBUF. A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST TO
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SNOW FOR KIAG AND KROC THROUGH
TONIGHT.
LIGHT SNOW EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING FROM A
WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND, THAT WILL IMPACT KJHW THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS
SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIKELY BRING A GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION BAND OF
SNOW ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. THIS NARROW BAND OF SNOW WITH LIFR
VISIBILITIES MAY LIE CLOSE TO KIAG AND KBUF, THOUGH EXACT PLACEMENT
IS STILL UNCERTAIN AS OF THIS TAF WRITING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH
LOCAL IFR. VFR/MVFR ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY...SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH
MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
ELEVATED NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THIS BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
WILL CROSS LAKE ONTARIO MIDDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
OF NOTE...MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS ARE NOW
ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE FORECAST.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ002>004.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ005-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ043-
044.
DISCUSSION...THOMAS/TMA
AVIATION...AR/THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
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