694
FXUS61 KBUF 291136
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
636 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS
COUNTIES.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ISSUED FOR ORLEANS,
MONROE, WAYNE COUNTIES 10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ISSUED FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 10 AM
FRIDAY AREA-WIDE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TODAY, ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH LAKE SNOW LINGERING INTO THE WEEKEND.
2) A FRIGID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TODAY, ESPECIALLY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH LAKE SNOW LINGERING INTO THE WEEKEND.
A 500 HPA LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHEAST TODAY, WITH A SHORTWAVE
AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS TROUGH AT 850 HPA WILL DROP TO -
24C OVER LAKE ONTARIO, WITH -20C AIRMASS JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET
OFF THE GROUND LINGERING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE
UPSTREAM A +2SD 1048 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SETTLE
SOUTHWARD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SUPPLYING FRESH ARCTIC AIR ON A NORTHWEST TO
NORTHERLY FLOW.
FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW, THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
MAINTAIN AN INTENSE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS MORNING FOR OSWEGO
AND FAR NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES. AN ANTICYLCONIC STRUCTURE TO THIS
SNOWBAND, AND STRONG BAND CONVERGENCE LEADING TO IMPRESSIVE VERTICAL
ACCENT IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES OF 3"/HR ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE SHORELINE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
FEET OF SNOW TO OSWEGO COUNTY, AND NEARLY A FOOT TO THE FAR NORTHERN
TIP OF CAYUGA COUNTY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE MIDDAY, AND
THIS FEATURE WILL CARRY THE SNOWBAND TO ALONG THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN
SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO. THOUGH SHALLOW, PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITHIN
THE SNOW DGZ, WHICH WILL LIE CLOSE TO THE GROUND, WILL LINGER ALONG
THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE NORTHERLY
TO NORTHWEST FLOW DIRECTING MULTIPLE BANDED SNOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN
LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE. FLUFFY SNOW IS EXPECTED WITHIN THIS COLD
AIRMASS, WITH 12- HOUR PERIOD TO PERIOD ACCUMULATIONS OF SEVERAL
INCHES...THAT OVER THE COURSE OF TWO DAYS WILL ADD UP TO A HALF TO
ONE FOOT OF SNOW. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THESE
LAKE SNOWS. GREATEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED MONROE EASTWARD
TO THE SOUTHEAST SHORELINE. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL
LIKELY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE SATURDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY AS WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY WITH A RAPIDLY DEEPENING
COASTAL LOW TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
ELSEWHERE A NORTHWEST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY
DRIVE A GEORGIAN BAY PLUME OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS NIAGARA, THE
NORTH TOWNS OF BUFFALO AND TOWARDS BATAVIA. A NARROW STRIP OF 2-4"
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE HERE, AND IF THE NARROW SNOWBAND
MATERIALIZES COULD SEE AMOUNTS TOTAL JUST OVER FOUR INCHES.
GIVEN THE NARROWNESS OF THE LAKE BAND, HAVE ELECTED NOT TO ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SNOW THIS EARLY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, INITIAL SOUTHWEST LAKE ERIE SNOWBAND THIS MORNING FROM A
SMALL PATCH OF OPEN WATER OVER LAKE ERIE IS WEAKENING AS WINDS ALOFT
VEER, WITH SNOW NOW ORIENTED ACROSS THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS AND
SOUTHWARD INTO THE BOSTON HILLS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A FRIGID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
A LARGE -2SD TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER ON/QC PROVINCES WILL
EJECT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE
DEEP ARCTIC AIRMASS WITHIN THIS TROUGH WILL EFFECTIVELY KEEP THE
FRIGID, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOCKED IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW ZERO, WITH NEGATIVE
TEENS NOT UNCOMMON DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. COLDEST OF CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT CAUSING 850 MB
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET BACK TO BETWEEN -23C AND -25C. WITH A LIGHT TO
MODEST NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT, THIS WILL
GENERATE WIND CHILLS WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS IN MOST AREAS. IT
APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THESE VALUES WILL BE MORE IN THE
-20F TO -30F RANGE OR EVEN LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MAY APPROACH RECORD MINIMUM VALUES FOR BOTH
THE DAILY HIGH AND LOW, WITH THESE RECORDS LISTED IN THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. ADDITIONALLY LISTED ARE CONSECUTIVE DAYS
BELOW 20 FAHRENHEIT.
A RATHER PRONOUNCED MODIFICATION OF THE OVERHEAD AIRMASS WILL OCCUR
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH MOVES FARTHER
SOUTH AND INTERACTS WITH A SECONDARY WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF. THIS IS WHAT WILL SPUR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE ROBUST
COASTAL LOW NEAR THE CAROLINAS, THOUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
850MB TEMPS WILL QUICKLY WARM TO AROUND -9C OR -10C. NOT WARM BY
MOST MEASURES, AND SFC TEMPS WILL STILL IN ALL LIKELIHOOD
REMAIN WELL BELOW FREEZING, THOUGH THIS SHOULD HELP TAKE THE
EDGE OFF THE FRIGID WIND CHILLS.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FOR THE 12Z TAFS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS BRINGING IFR OR LOWER
FLIGHT CONDITIONS, WITH THE BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO MUCH MORE
INTENSE. A TROUGH WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO
MIDDAY, BRINGING THE BAND OF SNOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO SOUTHWARD TO
KROC, KIAG AND AT TIMES KBUF. A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST TO
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SNOW FOR KIAG AND KROC THROUGH
TONIGHT.
A NARROW PLUME OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE THIS
MORNING ALSO SETTLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID AND LATE MORNING
HOURS AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS WILL IMPACT KBUF AND KJHW
THROUGH THE MORNING.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS
SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIKELY BRING A GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION BAND OF
SNOW ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. THIS NARROW BAND OF SNOW WITH LIFR
VISIBILITIES MAY LIE CLOSE TO KIAG AND KBUF, THOUGH EXACT PLACEMENT
IS STILL UNCERTAIN AS OF THIS TAF WRITING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH
LOCAL IFR. VFR/MVFR ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY...SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH
MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
ELEVATED NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THIS BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
WILL CROSS LAKE ONTARIO MIDDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
OF NOTE...MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS ARE NOW
ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE FORECAST.
CLIMATE
ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE UPON OUR REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. RECORD MINIMUM AND
RECORD COLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGED, ESPECIALLY
FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. BELOW ARE THE RECORDS FOR OUR THREE
CLIMATE SITES. RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER DATE BACK TO
1871, WHILE RECORDS FOR WATERTOWN DATE BACK TO 1949.
BUFFALO...
RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURE
JANUARY 30 -3 (2019)8 (1948)
ROCHESTER...
RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURE
JANUARY 30 -12 (1873)5 (1908)
WATERTOWN...
RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURE
JANUARY 30-26 (2022)7 (2010)
ADDITIONALLY, TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN BELOW 20F FOR ALL THREE OF
OUR CLIMATE SITES SINCE JANUARY 24TH. FORECASTED HIGHS FOR ALL
THREE OF OUR CLIMATE SITES HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW 20F
THROUGH SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 1ST. IF VERIFIED, THIS WOULD GIVE EACH
SITE 9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS BELOW 20, A STRETCH THAT DOES NOT
HAPPEN TOO OFTEN IN EACH STATION'S PERIOD OF RECORD. BELOW ARE
THE LONGEST STRETCHES FOR EACH OF OUR CLIMATE SITES BELOW 20
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.
BUFFALO...
RANK RUN LENGTH ENDING DATE
1 16 FEBRUARY 3RD 1961
2 11 FEBRUARY 2ND 1936
310FEBRUARY 18TH 1979
410FEBRUARY 17TH 1914
ROCHESTER...
112JANUARY 30TH 1961
210FEBRUARY 18TH 1979
310FEBRUARY 17TH 1914
WATERTOWN...
116FEBRUARY 3RD 1961
213FEBRUARY 18TH 1979
3 10FEBRUARY 6TH 1978
410FEBRUARY 18TH 1958
5 9JANUARY 15TH 1970
6 9DECEMBER 23RD 1963
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ002>004.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ005-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ043-
044.
DISCUSSION...THOMAS/TMA
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
CLIMATE...THOMAS
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