297
FXUS61 KBUF 291820
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
120 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR NIAGARA, NORTHERN ERIE, AND
GENESEE COUNTY FOR LAKE EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM FRIDAY.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO COUNTY HAS
BEEN REPLACED WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO AN EXTREME COLD WARNING
FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTY THROUGH 1 PM FRIDAY
KEY MESSAGES
1) LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO PERSIST OFF THE LAKES INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
2) A FRIGID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO PERSIST OFF THE
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE GREAT
LAKES REGION RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRIGID AIRMASS WILL
FILTER IN ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES UNDER NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW
WITH 850 HPA FALLING TO -22C TO -25C BY TONIGHT.
GIVEN THE 'FRIGID' AIRMASS MOVING OVERHEAD AND ENOUGH MOISTURE
IN THE LOW LEVELS LOOK FOR LAKE SNOWS TO CONTINUE OFF THE
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE WE WILL POTENTIALLY SEE MULTIPLE
STREAMERS. WE MAY EVEN SEE AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION OFF THE
GEORGIAN BAY OF WHICH IS ADVERTISED IN SEVERAL GUIDANCE PACKAGES
(RGEM/CANDAIDAN-NH) TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ISSUED ADDITIONAL WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES THROUGH 1 AM FRIDAY FOR THE ONGOING SNOW
ACROSS NIAGARA, NORTHERN ERIE, AND GENESEE COUNTY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SNOWBAND TO SET UP ACROSS THESE COUNTIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERALL...WHERE THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOWS
OCCUR WE COULD SEE 3-6" OF VERY FLUFFY SNOW, WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS AS SLRS WILL BE NORTH OF 30:1.
THE REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS (N. CAYUGA AND OSWEGO) HAVE
BEEN REPLACED WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AS FLOW HAS VEER
TO THE NORTHWEST-NORTH WITH LIGHTER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...ALL OTHER HEADLINES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A FRIGID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
A DEEP 500MB TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE
WEEKEND. A COLD POOL OF -30C AIR AT 850MB ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTH, WHILE MODERATING SOME TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC HIGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO, PROVIDING THE REGION WITH BROKEN
CLOUD COVER. WHILE THIS WILL HELP INSULATE SOME LOCATIONS, OVERALL
NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
FALLING TO -15 TO -24F ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY, TO -35F ACROSS
JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. DUE TO
THE SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND CHILLS ACROSS MUCH OF JEFFERSON AND LEWIS
COUNTIES, AN EXTREME COLD WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO THE LOW TEENS WITH WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY. THIS
AIRMASS MAY BREAK TEMPERATURE RECORDS AS LISTED IN THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW.
COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. IT WON'T BE UNTIL NEXT WORK WEEK WHEN
850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO -8C ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO GO BACK INTO THE 20S ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NY
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WITH FLOW VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AREA TERMINALS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SEE THE GREATEST IMPACTS FROM THE
LAKES SNOWS WITH IFR-LIFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
THOSE TERMINALS NOT FREQUENTLY IMPACTED BY THE LAKE SNOWS WILL SEE
MVFR TO LOW END VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF CYCLE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH
LOCALIZED IFR. VFR/MVFR ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY...SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH
MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
ELEVATED NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO LAKE ONTARIO TROUGH FRIDAY. A NARROW
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WHICH BRINGS A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS AND WAVE ACTION. THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES MONDAY WHICH MAY BRING NEAR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TO LAKE ONTARIO.
OF NOTE...MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS ARE NOW
ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE FORECAST.
CLIMATE
ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE UPON OUR REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. RECORD MINIMUM AND
RECORD COLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGED, ESPECIALLY
FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. BELOW ARE THE RECORDS FOR OUR THREE
CLIMATE SITES. RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER DATE BACK TO
1871, WHILE RECORDS FOR WATERTOWN DATE BACK TO 1949.
BUFFALO...
RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURE
JANUARY 30 -3 (2019)8 (1948)
ROCHESTER...
RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURE
JANUARY 30 -12 (1873)5 (1908)
WATERTOWN...
RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURE
JANUARY 30-26 (2022)7 (2010)
ADDITIONALLY, TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN BELOW 20F FOR ALL THREE OF
OUR CLIMATE SITES SINCE JANUARY 24TH. FORECASTED HIGHS FOR ALL
THREE OF OUR CLIMATE SITES HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW 20F
THROUGH SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 1ST. IF VERIFIED, THIS WOULD GIVE EACH
SITE 9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS BELOW 20, A STRETCH THAT DOES NOT
HAPPEN TOO OFTEN IN EACH STATION'S PERIOD OF RECORD. BELOW ARE
THE LONGEST STRETCHES FOR EACH OF OUR CLIMATE SITES BELOW 20
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.
BUFFALO...
RANK RUN LENGTH ENDING DATE
1 16 FEBRUARY 3RD 1961
2 11 FEBRUARY 2ND 1936
310FEBRUARY 18TH 1979
410FEBRUARY 17TH 1914
ROCHESTER...
112JANUARY 30TH 1961
210FEBRUARY 18TH 1979
310FEBRUARY 17TH 1914
WATERTOWN...
116FEBRUARY 3RD 1961
213FEBRUARY 18TH 1979
3 10FEBRUARY 6TH 1978
410FEBRUARY 18TH 1958
5 9JANUARY 15TH 1970
6 9DECEMBER 23RD 1963
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ001-010-
011.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR NYZ001>006-010>014-019>021-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
NYZ002>006.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR NYZ007-008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ043-
044.
DISCUSSION...AR/HSK
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR
CLIMATE...THOMAS
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