812
FXUS61 KBUF 300006
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
706 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR NIAGARA, NORTHERN ERIE, AND
GENESEE COUNTY FOR LAKE EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM FRIDAY.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO COUNTY HAS
BEEN REPLACED WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO AN EXTREME COLD WARNING
FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTY THROUGH 1 PM FRIDAY
KEY MESSAGES
1) LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO PERSIST OFF THE LAKES INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
2) A FRIGID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO PERSIST OFF THE
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE GREAT LAKES
REGION RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY
TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CIRCULATING A FRIGID AIRMASS (850 MB
TEMPS OF -22C TO -25C) ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
FRIDAY.
GIVEN THE 'FRIGID' AIRMASS AND ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
LOOK FOR LAKE SNOWS TO CONTINUE OFF THE LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE WE WILL
SEE MULTIPLE STREAMERS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION
OFF THE GEORGIAN BAY OF WHICH IS ADVERTISED IN SEVERAL GUIDANCE
PACKAGES (RGEM/CANADIAN-NH) TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER THIS EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND...WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM FRIDAY ACROSS NIAGARA,
NORTHERN ERIE, AND GENESEE COUNTIES. OVERALL...WHERE THE MOST
PERSISTENT SNOWS OCCUR WE COULD SEE 3-6" OF VERY FLUFFY SNOW, WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AS SLRS WILL BE NORTH OF 30:1.
ELSEWHERE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
ORLEANS COUNTY EASTWARD TO OSWEGO COUNTY THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY...
WHERE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY AND A HALF.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A FRIGID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
A DEEP 500MB TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE
WEEKEND. A COLD POOL OF -30C AIR AT 850MB ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
WILL MOVE SOUTH, WHILE MODERATING SOME TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AN
ARCTIC HIGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE
WEEKEND. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO, PROVIDING THE REGION WITH BROKEN CLOUD COVER. WHILE
THIS WILL HELP INSULATE SOME LOCATIONS, OVERALL NORTHWEST WINDS AND
COLD AIR WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS FALLING TO -15 TO -24F
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY, TO -35F ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS
COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY LOWER
WIND CHILLS ACROSS MUCH OF JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES, AN EXTREME
COLD WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOW TEENS WITH
WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY. THIS AIRMASS MAY BREAK
TEMPERATURE RECORDS AS LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. IT WON'T BE UNTIL NEXT WORK WEEK WHEN
850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO -8C ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO GO BACK INTO THE 20S ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NY
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BEFORE BACKING A LITTLE MORE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE MULTIPLE
BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND ATTENDANT LOCALIZED IFR-LIFR SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT...WITH THE BANDS THEN RETRACTING BACK CLOSER TO
THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS...CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY MVFR TO
LOWER-END VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH UNLIMITED VFR EXPECTED
MUCH OF THE TIME AT KART.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR ALONG AND
A BIT INLAND FROM THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH MVFR/VFR
PREVAILING ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
WITH MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
ELEVATED NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS TO LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE LAKES OVER
THE WEEKEND AND BRING A PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS AND
DIMINISHED WAVE ACTION...BEFORE THE NEXT WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES
MONDAY AND BRINGS A RETURN TO MODERATELY BRISK WINDS (AND
POTENTIALLY ADVISORY-WORTHY CONDITIONS) TO LAKE ONTARIO.
OF NOTE...MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS ARE NOW
ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE FORECAST.
CLIMATE
ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE UPON OUR REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. RECORD MINIMUM AND
RECORD COLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGED, ESPECIALLY
FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. BELOW ARE THE RECORDS FOR OUR THREE
CLIMATE SITES. RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER DATE BACK TO
1871, WHILE RECORDS FOR WATERTOWN DATE BACK TO 1949.
BUFFALO...
RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURE
JANUARY 30 -3 (2019)8 (1948)
ROCHESTER...
RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURE
JANUARY 30 -12 (1873)5 (1908)
WATERTOWN...
RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURE
JANUARY 30-26 (2022)7 (2010)
ADDITIONALLY, TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN BELOW 20F FOR ALL THREE OF
OUR CLIMATE SITES SINCE JANUARY 24TH. FORECASTED HIGHS FOR ALL
THREE OF OUR CLIMATE SITES HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW 20F
THROUGH SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 1ST. IF VERIFIED, THIS WOULD GIVE EACH
SITE 9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS BELOW 20, A STRETCH THAT DOES NOT
HAPPEN TOO OFTEN IN EACH STATION'S PERIOD OF RECORD. BELOW ARE
THE LONGEST STRETCHES FOR EACH OF OUR CLIMATE SITES BELOW 20
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.
BUFFALO...
RANK RUN LENGTH ENDING DATE
1 16 FEBRUARY 3RD 1961
2 11 FEBRUARY 2ND 1936
310FEBRUARY 18TH 1979
410FEBRUARY 17TH 1914
ROCHESTER...
112JANUARY 30TH 1961
210FEBRUARY 18TH 1979
310FEBRUARY 17TH 1914
WATERTOWN...
116FEBRUARY 3RD 1961
213FEBRUARY 18TH 1979
3 10FEBRUARY 6TH 1978
410FEBRUARY 18TH 1958
5 9JANUARY 15TH 1970
6 9DECEMBER 23RD 1963
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ001-010-
011.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ001>006-
010>014-019>021-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
NYZ002>006.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ042>044.
DISCUSSION...AR/HSK/JJR
AVIATION...AR/JJR
MARINE...AR/JJR
CLIMATE...THOMAS
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