350
FXUS61 KBUF 301139
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
639 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRED FOR NIAGARA, NORTHERN ERIE, AND
GENESEE COUNTY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO PERSIST OFF THE LAKES INTO
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
2) A FRIGID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO PERSIST OFF THE
LAKES INTO SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
A BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE
20C WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS A DIGGING 500 HPA
TROUGH FORMS OVER THE EASTERN US, AND EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST LATE
THIS WEEKEND.
EARLY THIS MORNING UPSTREAM LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF GEORGIAN BAY/LAKE
HURON WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER.
ON A PRIMARY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL TAKE ON A
MULTIBANDED STRUCTURE TODAY, WITH SNOW ACCUMULATING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
A SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT MAY
ENHANCE THE SNOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH
PERHAPS 3-5" TONIGHT FROM NORTHEAST MONROE TO NORTHERN CAYUGA
COUNTIES. TONIGHT WILL BE THE PERIOD WITH GREATEST SNOW ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED WITHIN THIS MULTI-DAY ADVISORY. THIS TROUGH MAY ALSO HELP
PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES EAST OF LAKE ERIE TONIGHT.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FLUFFY THROUGH THIS
EVENT, WITH THE SNOW DGZ JUST ABOVE THE GROUND, AND SHALLOW MOISTURE
UP THROUGH 4-5K FEET. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LOWER,
LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING TO THIS FLUFFY SNOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A FRIGID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS INTO THE
WEEKEND. A COLD POOL OF -30C AIR AT 850 MB ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC
WILL PIVOT SOUTHWARD. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL
BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE WEEKEND.
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO PROVIDING
THE REGION WITH SOME INSULATION, BUT OVERALL NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO
15 MPH AND ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING RESULTING IN
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 15 BELOW TO 24 BELOW ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK, WITH WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS 35 BELOW ACROSS
JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY
REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOW TEENS WITH WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW
ZERO. THIS AIRMASS MAY BREAK TEMPERATURE RECORDS AS LISTED IN THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE, BUT CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS HARSH AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GO BACK INTO THE 20S ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FOR THE 12Z TAFS NARROW, MULTI BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO, GREATLY
IMPACTING KROC, KIAG AND KBUF.
LAKE SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL LIKELY BECOME ENHANCED THIS
EVENING AND THROUGH THE END OF TONIGHT AS A TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE LAKE. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE TIME PERIOD OF GREATEST IFR
VISIBILITIES FOR KROC...WITH LIMITED IFR VISIBILITIES FOR KIAG/KBUF
IN OCCASIONAL SNOW. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ALSO REACH KJHW
FROM TIME TO TIME TONIGHT, WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES.
KART WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE, WITH A FEW
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AIRFIELD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
WITH MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
ELEVATED NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS TO LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE LAKES OVER
THE WEEKEND AND BRING A PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS AND
DIMINISHED WAVE ACTION...BEFORE THE NEXT WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES
MONDAY AND BRINGS A RETURN TO MODERATELY BRISK WINDS (AND
POTENTIALLY ADVISORY-WORTHY CONDITIONS) TO LAKE ONTARIO.
OF NOTE...MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS ARE NOW
ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE FORECAST.
CLIMATE
ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE UPON OUR REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. RECORD MINIMUM AND
RECORD COLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGED, ESPECIALLY
FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. BELOW ARE THE RECORDS FOR OUR THREE
CLIMATE SITES. RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER DATE BACK TO
1871, WHILE RECORDS FOR WATERTOWN DATE BACK TO 1949.
BUFFALO...
RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURE
JANUARY 30 -3 (2019)8 (1948)
ROCHESTER...
RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURE
JANUARY 30 -12 (1873)5 (1908)
WATERTOWN...
RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURE
JANUARY 30-26 (2022)7 (2010)
ADDITIONALLY, TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN BELOW 20F FOR ALL THREE OF
OUR CLIMATE SITES SINCE JANUARY 24TH. FORECASTED HIGHS FOR ALL
THREE OF OUR CLIMATE SITES HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW 20F
THROUGH SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 1ST. IF VERIFIED, THIS WOULD GIVE EACH
SITE 9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS BELOW 20, A STRETCH THAT DOES NOT
HAPPEN TOO OFTEN IN EACH STATION'S PERIOD OF RECORD. BELOW ARE
THE LONGEST STRETCHES FOR EACH OF OUR CLIMATE SITES BELOW 20
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.
BUFFALO...
RANK RUN LENGTH ENDING DATE
1 16 FEBRUARY 3RD 1961
2 11 FEBRUARY 2ND 1936
310FEBRUARY 18TH 1979
410FEBRUARY 17TH 1914
ROCHESTER...
112JANUARY 30TH 1961
210FEBRUARY 18TH 1979
310FEBRUARY 17TH 1914
WATERTOWN...
116FEBRUARY 3RD 1961
213FEBRUARY 18TH 1979
3 10FEBRUARY 6TH 1978
410FEBRUARY 18TH 1958
5 9JANUARY 15TH 1970
6 9DECEMBER 23RD 1963
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ001>006-010>014-019>021-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
NYZ002>006.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ007-
008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ042>044.
DISCUSSION...THOMAS/TMA
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...AR/JJR
CLIMATE...THOMAS
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