351
FXUS61 KBUF 310002
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
702 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXTREME COLD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELED FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS
COUNTIES, WITH A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FOR LEWIS
THROUGH 11 AM SATURDAY.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR CHAUTAUQUA,
CATTARAUGUS, AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES THROUGH 11 AM SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO PERSIST
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
2) A FRIGID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO
PERSIST SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
A FRIGID NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE
SNOWFALL OFF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH MULTIPLE
SHALLOW BANDS STREAMING SOUTHEAST OFF THE LAKE. THAT SAID...BY MID-
EVENING (00Z-03Z), WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE A BRIEF UPTICK (ENHANCEMENT)
IN ACTIVITY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKES.
THIS MAY HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT AN ADDITIONAL 3-6" OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE SOUTH OF THE LAKE,
NORTHEAST MONROE, WAYNE, AND INTO NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES. NO
CHANGES TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME WHICH REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST-SOUTH OF THE LAKE SATURDAY BUT WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AT THIS
POINT...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW, FALLING
EQLS, AND DEPLETING MOISTURE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A FRIGID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
SUNDAY.
A BROAD TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND. WITH A FRIGID AIRMASS STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES HAVE CONTINUED SOME COLD WEATHER HEADLINES, MAINLY FOR THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND LEWIS COUNTY WHERE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
OF -15F TO -25F ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND POTENTIALLY AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL MOVE FURTHER INLAND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY TONIGHT.
A MIX OF MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN LAKE CLOUDS
AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR IFR OR BELOW WILL BE
FROM KIAG TO KROC THIS EVENING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR IS
POSSIBLE AT KBUF, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOWER.
A MUCH WEAKER LAKE RESPONSE IS EXPECTED OFF LAKE ERIE, AND VERY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED NEAR KJHW TONIGHT.
THE COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN MVFR
CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
WITH MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
ELEVATED NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS EVENING. A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING A
PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS AND DIMINISHED WAVE ACTION. THE
NEXT WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES MONDAY AND BRINGS A RETURN TO MODERATELY
BRISK WINDS (AND POTENTIALLY ADVISORY-WORTHY CONDITIONS) TO LAKE
ONTARIO.
OF NOTE...MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS ARE NOW
ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE FORECAST.
CLIMATE
BELOW ARE THE RECORDS FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES. RECORDS FOR
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER DATE BACK TO 1871, WHILE RECORDS FOR
WATERTOWN DATE BACK TO 1949.
BUFFALO...
RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURE
JANUARY 30 -3 (2019)8 (1948)
ROCHESTER...
RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURE
JANUARY 30 -12 (1873)5 (1908)
WATERTOWN...
RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURE
JANUARY 30-26 (2022) 7 (2010)
EVENING UPDATE: WATERTOWN SHATTERED THEIR RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (-33F)TODAY.
ADDITIONALLY, TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN BELOW 20F FOR ALL THREE OF
OUR CLIMATE SITES SINCE JANUARY 24TH. FORECASTED HIGHS FOR ALL
THREE OF OUR CLIMATE SITES HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW 20F
THROUGH SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 1ST. IF VERIFIED, THIS WOULD GIVE EACH
SITE 9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS BELOW 20, A STRETCH THAT DOES NOT
HAPPEN TOO OFTEN IN EACH STATION'S PERIOD OF RECORD. BELOW ARE
THE LONGEST STRETCHES FOR EACH OF OUR CLIMATE SITES BELOW 20
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.
BUFFALO...
RANK RUN LENGTH ENDING DATE
1 16 FEBRUARY 3RD 1961
2 11 FEBRUARY 2ND 1936
310FEBRUARY 18TH 1979
410FEBRUARY 17TH 1914
ROCHESTER...
112JANUARY 30TH 1961
210FEBRUARY 18TH 1979
310FEBRUARY 17TH 1914
WATERTOWN...
116FEBRUARY 3RD 1961
213FEBRUARY 18TH 1979
3 10FEBRUARY 6TH 1978
410FEBRUARY 18TH 1958
5 9JANUARY 15TH 1970
6 9DECEMBER 23RD 1963
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
NYZ002>006.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ008-
019>021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ042>044.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...AR
CLIMATE...THOMAS/HSK
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