194
FXUS61 KBUF 310536
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1236 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO INCREASE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THIS MORNING.
CONFIDENCE INCREASED FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ONTARIO NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON
BAND PLACEMENT REMAINS LOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THIS MORNING.
2) A FRIGID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY.
3) LAKE EFFECT SNOW FORMS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THIS MORNING.
A VERY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OFF
LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THIS MORNING, WITH MULTIPLE SHALLOW BANDS
STREAMING SOUTHEAST OFF THE LAKE. SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOW IS
POSSIBLE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL 3-6" THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE SOUTH OF THE
LAKE, NORTHEAST MONROE, WAYNE, AND INTO NORTHERN CAYUGA
COUNTIES. NO CHANGES TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AT THIS
TIME WHICH REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING. THE
LAKE SNOWS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE
GETS DEPLETED COMBINED WITH LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A FRIGID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
SUNDAY.
A BROAD TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND. WITH A FRIGID AIRMASS STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES HAVE CONTINUED SOME COLD WEATHER HEADLINES, MAINLY FOR THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND LEWIS COUNTY WHERE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
OF -15F TO -25F THIS MORNING. SOME AREAS MAY GET CLOSE TO COLD
WEATHER CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...LAKE EFFECT SNOW FORMS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY -
WEDNESDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY -
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...THAT WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES IN THE
NEGATIVE MID- TEENS CELSIUS AND THE ADDITION OF MODERATE SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE, A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM. THERE IS
STILL MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND ITS
INFLUENCE ON BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS, BUT A BAND OF SNOW IS LIKELY TO
FORM NORTHEAST/EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY, SETTLING SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH
THIS EVENT, WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS AND SNOW ACCUMULATION CLOSER
TO THE SHORELINE AND TO THE FAR WESTERN TUG HILL REGION...WITH LOWER
CHANCES FOR THE SNOWBAND TO REACH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK FOOTHILLS.
THE WEAKER WIND FLOW, AND LOWER SNOWBAND CONVERGENCE/LIFT ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL OSCILLATION OF THE BAND, OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS MAY END UP
IN THE ADVISORY RANGE...BUT IF CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
COULD SEE LOW END WARNING SNOW AMOUNTS. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY
THAT THIS SNOWBAND LINGERS INTO THURSDAY ON A NORTHWEST FLOW.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO
WILL MOVE FURTHER INLAND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY OVERNIGHT. A
MIX OF MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN LAKE CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR IFR OR BELOW WILL BE FROM KIAG
TO KROC. A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR IS POSSIBLE AT KBUF, HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. A MUCH WEAKER LAKE RESPONSE IS EXPECTED
OFF LAKE ERIE, AND VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE
EXPECTED NEAR KJHW.
THE COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN MVFR
CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES THIS WEEKEND AND BRING A PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS AND
DIMINISHED WAVE ACTION.
THE NEXT WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES MONDAY AND BRINGS A RETURN TO
MODERATELY BRISK WINDS (AND POTENTIALLY ADVISORY-WORTHY CONDITIONS)
TO LAKE ONTARIO.
OF NOTE...MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS ARE NOW
ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE FORECAST.
CLIMATE
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN BELOW 20F FOR ALL THREE OF OUR CLIMATE
SITES SINCE JANUARY 24TH. FORECASTED HIGHS FOR ALL THREE OF OUR
CLIMATE SITES HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW 20F THROUGH
SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 1ST. IF VERIFIED, THIS WOULD GIVE EACH SITE 9
CONSECUTIVE DAYS BELOW 20, A STRETCH THAT DOES NOT HAPPEN TOO
OFTEN IN EACH STATION'S PERIOD OF RECORD. BELOW ARE THE LONGEST
STRETCHES FOR EACH OF OUR CLIMATE SITES BELOW 20 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT.
BUFFALO...
RANK .... RUN LENGTH .... ENDING DATE
1 .... 16 .... FEBRUARY 3RD 1961
2 .... 11 .... FEBRUARY 2ND 1936
3 .... 10 .... FEBRUARY 18TH 1979
4 .... 10 .... FEBRUARY 17TH 1914
ROCHESTER...
1 .... 12 .... JANUARY 30TH 1961
2 .... 10 .... FEBRUARY 18TH 1979
3 .... 10 .... FEBRUARY 17TH 1914
WATERTOWN...
1 .... 16 .... FEBRUARY 3RD 1961
2 .... 13 .... FEBRUARY 18TH 1979
3 .... 10 .... FEBRUARY 6TH 1978
4 .... 10 .... FEBRUARY 18TH 1958
5 .... 9 .... JANUARY 15TH 1970
6 .... 9 .... DECEMBER 23RD 1963
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ002>006.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ008-
019>021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LOZ042>044.
DISCUSSION...THOMAS/TMA
AVIATION...HSK/TMA
MARINE...AR/TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS/TMA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page