162
FXUS61 KBUF 311707
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1207 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR LINGERING MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THOUGH
BAND PLACEMENT CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAINLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING.
2) A FRIGID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY.
3) LAKE EFFECT SNOW RETURNS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MAINLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING.
WIDESPREAD, MAINLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO IN WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. A SHARP INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 5K FEET
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE LOW INVERSION, A SHALLOW LAYER
OF SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
PERSISTENT LAKE RESPONSE.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL VEER FROM NW TO NNE TONIGHT, WHICH SHOULD
HELP TO PREVENT A STRONG LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE
LAKESHORE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL LAST
NIGHT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING WILL BE IN THE 1-2" RANGE IN MOST AREAS, BUT THERE MAY STILL
BE LOCALIZED 2-4"/3-5" AMOUNTS RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE
LAKE. ONE LOCATION WHERE THIS MAY OCCUR IS NEAR IRONDEQUOIT BAY,
WHERE THE CONCAVE SHORELINE SHAPE IN NORTHEAST MONROE COUNTY CAN
FORCE MORE CONCENTRATED LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, BUT MAY NOT END ALTOGETHER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A FRIGID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
SUNDAY.
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY,
ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS THE PAST FEW DAYS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT, AND WELL BELOW
ZERO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT HOWEVER, WITH WIND
CHILLS ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW THE AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURE. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO TREND GRADUALLY UPWARD SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS, AND LOWER TEENS NORTH COUNTRY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...LAKE EFFECT SNOW RETURNS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS WEEK, REACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE MID NEGATIVE
TEENS CELSIUS, ALONG WITH INTRODUCING MODERATE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE. IN
THE WAKE OF SOME MINOR WIDESPREAD SNOW, A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, HOWEVER DUE TO SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS FROM THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH'S PASSAGE, EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THE BAND IN DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT. THIS BEING SAID,
THE BAND SHOULD DEVELOP EAST/NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY,
BEFORE SETTLING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINE OF THE
LAKE WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS.
THE GREATEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS, AND CORRESPONDING IMPACTS WILL
OCCUR CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE AND AS FAR EAST AS THE WESTERN TUG
HILL AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. THIS
ALL BEING SAID, DUE TO THE WIND SHIFT CAUSING THE LAKE BAND TO
OSCILLATE, WEAK WINDS AND LIMITED SNOWBAND CONVERGENCE/LIFT WILL
SUPPORT ADVISORY AMOUNTS OF A MULTIPLE INCHES. HOWEVER, IF
CONDITIONS WERE TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE, SNOW AMOUNTS MAY REACH THE
LOW END WARNING SNOW AMOUNTS.
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY SUPPORT THE SNOWBAND TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BUT
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. THE NORTH COUNTRY INCLUDING KART WILL REMAIN
LARGELY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, BUT MAY NOT END ALTOGETHER.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MVFR/LOCAL IFR WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE LAKES.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...AREAS OF IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW, ESPECIALLY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MARINE
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES THIS WEEKEND AND BRING A PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS AND
DIMINISHED WAVE ACTION THROUGH MONDAY.
OF NOTE...MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS ARE NOW
ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE FORECAST.
CLIMATE
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN BELOW 20F FOR ALL THREE OF OUR CLIMATE
SITES SINCE JANUARY 24TH. FORECASTED HIGHS FOR ALL THREE OF OUR
CLIMATE SITES HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW 20F THROUGH
SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 1ST. IF VERIFIED, THIS WOULD GIVE EACH SITE 9
CONSECUTIVE DAYS BELOW 20, A STRETCH THAT DOES NOT HAPPEN TOO
OFTEN IN EACH STATION'S PERIOD OF RECORD. BELOW ARE THE LONGEST
STRETCHES FOR EACH OF OUR CLIMATE SITES BELOW 20 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT.
BUFFALO...
RANK .... RUN LENGTH .... ENDING DATE
1 .... 16 .... FEBRUARY 3RD 1961
2 .... 11 .... FEBRUARY 2ND 1936
3 .... 10 .... FEBRUARY 18TH 1979
4 .... 10 .... FEBRUARY 17TH 1914
ROCHESTER...
1 .... 12 .... JANUARY 30TH 1961
2 .... 10 .... FEBRUARY 18TH 1979
3 .... 10 .... FEBRUARY 17TH 1914
WATERTOWN...
1 .... 16 .... FEBRUARY 3RD 1961
2 .... 13 .... FEBRUARY 18TH 1979
3 .... 10 .... FEBRUARY 6TH 1978
4 .... 10 .... FEBRUARY 18TH 1958
5 .... 9 .... JANUARY 15TH 1970
6 .... 9 .... DECEMBER 23RD 1963
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EAJ/HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/TMA
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
CLIMATE...THOMAS/TMA
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