940
FXUS61 KBUF 010609
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
109 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED POPS FOR LINGERING MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAINLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH THIS MORNING.
2) A FRIGID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY.
3) LAKE EFFECT SNOW RETURNS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MAINLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THIS MORNING.
WIDESPREAD, MAINLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO IN WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THIS MORNING. WHILE A SHARP
INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 5K FEET, UNDERNEATH THIS A
SHALLOW LAYER OF SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A PERSISTENT LAKE RESPONSE. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL BE IN THE 1-3" RANGE IN MOST
AREAS, BUT THERE MAY STILL BE LOCALIZED 2-4"/3-5" AMOUNTS RIGHT
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE. ONE LOCATION WHERE THIS MAY
OCCUR IS NEAR IRONDEQUOIT BAY, WHERE THE CONCAVE SHORELINE SHAPE
IN NORTHEAST MONROE COUNTY CAN FORCE MORE CONCENTRATED LAND
BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, BUT MAY NOT END ALTOGETHER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A FRIGID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY. WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY, ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT
BE QUITE AS COLD AS THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS, AND LOWER TEENS NORTH COUNTRY. A NORTHERLY
BREEZE WILL RESULT IN WINDS CHILLS FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW.
KEY MESSAGE 3...LAKE EFFECT SNOW RETURNS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS WEEK, REACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE MID NEGATIVE
TEENS CELSIUS, ALONG WITH INTRODUCING MODERATE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE. IN
THE WAKE OF SOME MINOR WIDESPREAD SNOW, A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, HOWEVER DUE TO SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS FROM THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH'S PASSAGE, EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THE BAND IN DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT. THIS BEING SAID,
THE BAND SHOULD DEVELOP EAST/NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY,
BEFORE SETTLING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINE OF THE
LAKE WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS.
THE GREATEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS, AND CORRESPONDING IMPACTS WILL
OCCUR CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE AND AS FAR EAST AS THE WESTERN TUG
HILL AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. THIS
ALL BEING SAID, DUE TO THE WIND SHIFT CAUSING THE LAKE BAND TO
OSCILLATE, WEAK WINDS AND LIMITED SNOWBAND CONVERGENCE/LIFT WILL
SUPPORT ADVISORY AMOUNTS OF A MULTIPLE INCHES. HOWEVER, IF
CONDITIONS WERE TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE, SNOW AMOUNTS MAY REACH THE
LOW END WARNING SNOW AMOUNTS.
A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND MAY SUPPORT THE SNOWBAND TO LINGER INTO
THURSDAY OFF LAKE ONTARIO.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MAINLY LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES AND MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
IN SNOW SHOWERS, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME IFR CEILINGS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SOME
MVFR TO LOWER-END VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED BEFORE SCATTERING OUT TOWARD
SUNDAY MORNING AT KART.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS DIMINISHING TREND SHOULD
SUPPORT A GRADUAL RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF SITES SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO, THOUGH SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY HANG ON INTO THIS
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT...VFR/MVFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MVFR/LOCAL IFR WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE LAKES.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...AREAS OF IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW, ESPECIALLY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MARINE
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS AND DIMINISHED WAVE ACTION
THROUGH MONDAY.
OF NOTE...MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS ARE NOW
ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE FORECAST.
CLIMATE
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN BELOW 20F FOR ALL THREE OF OUR CLIMATE
SITES SINCE JANUARY 24TH. FORECASTED HIGHS FOR ALL THREE OF OUR
CLIMATE SITES HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW 20F THROUGH
TODAY (FEB 1ST). IF THIS VERIFIES, THIS WOULD GIVE EACH SITE 9
CONSECUTIVE DAYS BELOW 20F, A STRETCH THAT DOES NOT HAPPEN TOO
OFTEN IN EACH STATION'S PERIOD OF RECORD. BELOW ARE THE LONGEST
STRETCHES FOR EACH OF OUR CLIMATE SITES BELOW 20 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT.
BUFFALO...
RANK .... RUN LENGTH .... ENDING DATE
1 .... 16 .... FEBRUARY 3RD 1961
2 .... 11 .... FEBRUARY 2ND 1936
3 .... 10 .... FEBRUARY 18TH 1979
4 .... 10 .... FEBRUARY 17TH 1914
ROCHESTER...
1 .... 12 .... JANUARY 30TH 1961
2 .... 10 .... FEBRUARY 18TH 1979
3 .... 10 .... FEBRUARY 17TH 1914
WATERTOWN...
1 .... 16 .... FEBRUARY 3RD 1961
2 .... 13 .... FEBRUARY 18TH 1979
3 .... 10 .... FEBRUARY 6TH 1978
4 .... 10 .... FEBRUARY 18TH 1958
5 .... 9 .... JANUARY 15TH 1970
6 .... 9 .... DECEMBER 23RD 1963
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EAJ/HITCHCOCK/JJR/TMA
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/JJR/TMA
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
CLIMATE...THOMAS/TMA
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