143
FXUS61 KBUF 012305
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
605 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FRIGID AIRMASS WITH WIND CHILLS AROUND ZERO WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
2) LAKE EFFECT SNOW RETURNS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
3) MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW AND COLD ON THE WAY FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A FRIGID AIRMASS WITH WIND CHILLS AROUND ZERO
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS, TO THE MINUS SINGLE DIGITS TO MINUS TEENS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS NEAR AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...LAKE EFFECT SNOW RETURNS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY, REACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE MID NEGATIVE TEENS
CELSIUS, ALONG WITH INTRODUCING MODERATE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE. IN THE
WAKE OF SOME MINOR WIDESPREAD SNOW, A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, HOWEVER DUE TO SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS FROM THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH'S PASSAGE, EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THE BAND IN DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT. THIS BEING SAID,
THE BAND SHOULD DEVELOP EAST/NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY,
BEFORE SETTLING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINE OF THE
LAKE WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS.
THE GREATEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS, AND CORRESPONDING IMPACTS WILL
OCCUR CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE AND AS FAR EAST AS THE WESTERN TUG
HILL AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. THIS
ALL BEING SAID, DUE TO THE WIND SHIFT CAUSING THE LAKE BAND TO
OSCILLATE, WEAK WINDS AND LIMITED SNOWBAND CONVERGENCE/LIFT WILL
SUPPORT ADVISORY AMOUNTS OF A MULTIPLE INCHES. HOWEVER, IF
CONDITIONS WERE TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE, SNOW AMOUNTS MAY REACH THE
LOW END WARNING SNOW AMOUNTS.
A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND MAY SUPPORT THE SNOWBAND TO LINGER INTO
THURSDAY OFF LAKE ONTARIO.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW AND COLD ON THE WAY FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
HEADING INTO THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK AND LOOKING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, THE NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY, SWINGING ITS AXIS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE, THE NEXT
CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT,
BEFORE EXITING THE ATLANTIC COAST AND HEADING OUT TO SEA SATURDAY.
INITIALLY, WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM/FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSAGE EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. IN IT'S WAKE, WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT ARCTIC AIRMASS (TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AT 850MB PLUMMETING TO -25C) WILL SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
DEVELOP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF MAINLY LAKE ONTARIO SATURDAY AND LINGER
INTO SUNDAY.
ALL OF THIS BEING SAID THERE WILL BE TWO MAIN IMPACTS TO BE
CONCERNED WITH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. FIRST WILL BE A
BLANKET OF WIDESPREAD SNOW OF A FEW INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE SECOND IMPACT WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF BONE CHILLING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND, WHERE COLD WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
NEEDED.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A SMALL AREA OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING NEAR AND
JUST WEST OF KFZY. OTHERWISE, SKIES HAVE CLEARED ELSEWHERE WITH VFR
PREVAILING THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW STRATUS WILL EXPAND AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH
SHALLOW LAKE MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MVFR CIGS TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT AGAIN
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW STRATUS WILL MIX OUT BY
LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY MONDAY, WITH MOST AREAS RETURNING TO VFR.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR/LOCAL IFR WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE LAKES.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...AREAS OF IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW, ESPECIALLY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY...IFR OR BELOW IN WIDESPREAD SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
MARINE
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS AND DIMINISHED WAVE ACTION
THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN WIND, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE NEXT PERIOD OF MORE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, PRODUCING HIGHER END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THAT PEAK FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ON LAKE
ONTARIO.
OF NOTE...MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS ARE NOW
ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE FORECAST.
CLIMATE
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN BELOW 20F FOR ALL THREE OF OUR CLIMATE
SITES SINCE JANUARY 24TH. FORECASTED HIGHS FOR ALL THREE OF OUR
CLIMATE SITES HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW 20F THROUGH
TODAY (FEB 1ST). IF THIS VERIFIES, THIS WOULD GIVE EACH SITE 9
CONSECUTIVE DAYS BELOW 20F, A STRETCH THAT DOES NOT HAPPEN TOO
OFTEN IN EACH STATION'S PERIOD OF RECORD. BELOW ARE THE LONGEST
STRETCHES FOR EACH OF OUR CLIMATE SITES BELOW 20 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT.
BUFFALO...
RANK .... RUN LENGTH .... ENDING DATE
1 .... 16 .... FEBRUARY 3RD 1961
2 .... 11 .... FEBRUARY 2ND 1936
3 .... 10 .... FEBRUARY 18TH 1979
4 .... 10 .... FEBRUARY 17TH 1914
ROCHESTER...
1 .... 12 .... JANUARY 30TH 1961
2 .... 10 .... FEBRUARY 18TH 1979
3 .... 10 .... FEBRUARY 17TH 1914
WATERTOWN...
1 .... 16 .... FEBRUARY 3RD 1961
2 .... 13 .... FEBRUARY 18TH 1979
3 .... 10 .... FEBRUARY 6TH 1978
4 .... 10 .... FEBRUARY 18TH 1958
5 .... 9 .... JANUARY 15TH 1970
6 .... 9 .... DECEMBER 23RD 1963
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EAJ/HITCHCOCK/HSK
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
CLIMATE...THOMAS/TMA
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