773
FXUS61 KBUF 020539
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1239 AM EST MON FEB 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN SNOW TIMING FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY IMPACTFUL GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LAKE EFFECT SNOW RETURNS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
2) WIDESPREAD SNOW FRIDAY, BLUSTERY AND TURNING MUCH COLDER SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LAKE EFFECT SNOW RETURNS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY,
REACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
CAUSING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN TO AROUND -15C, ALONG WITH
INTRODUCING MODERATE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE. SOME MINOR GENERAL SNOW WILL
DEVELOP, BUT ANTECEDENT DRY ENVIRONMENT AND WEAK FORCING PRECLUDES
ANY MEANINGFUL SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH TOTALS UNDER AN INCH.
INITIAL WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER WEST IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE, SETTLING THE LAKE SNOWS SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINE WEDNESDAY. THE
GREATEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS, AND IMPACTS WILL OCCUR CLOSER
TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND AS FAR EAST AS THE
WESTERN TUG HILL, AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE. OSCILLATION OF THE LAKE BAND SHOULD KEEP SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF A FEW INCHES IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME.
A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND MAY SUPPORT THE SNOWBAND TO LINGER INTO
THURSDAY OFF LAKE ONTARIO WITH ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT, CLOSED OFF AT LESS THAN 500 DM
AT 500 HPA WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY -FRIDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND TO NEW ENGLAND, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
AHEAD OF THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE
ACROSS OUR REGION. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY SPREAD ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE DOWNSLOPE
GENESEE VALLEY...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR COUNTIES EAST OF LAKE ERIE
AND THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
BEHIND THIS CLIPPER IT WILL BECOME BREEZY WITH A TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SUPPORTING WINDS
GUSTING OVER 30 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW, WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY WITHIN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO COULD
ADD SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW UPON WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN.
THIS WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE, AS THERE
ARE MODEL HINTS THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY REMAIN WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE LAKE...WITH MUCH LESS LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACTIVITY.
SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY WITH SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS. THIS
COUPLED WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL
PLUMMET WELL BELOW ZERO...TO PERHAPS INTO THE EXTREME COLD WARNING
RANGE FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE -20 TO -25 CELSIUS AIRMASS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO NEAR OR BELOW
ZERO...AND IF WE OBTAIN ANY CLEARING...POSSIBLY ANOTHER NIGHT WITH
NEGATIVE 20 VALUES FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. AT THIS JUNCTURE NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR TEMPERATURES OF AT LEAST -10F RANGE FROM 60 TO 90%
ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND TRADITIONALLY COLDER SPOTS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR THROUGH 07Z, FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SHORT TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST LOW STRATUS WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING WITH SHALLOW LAKE MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEP
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MVFR CIGS TO BECOME MORE
PREVALENT OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW STRATUS WILL MIX
OUT BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY MONDAY, WITH MOST AREAS RETURNING TO
VFR.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR/LOCAL IFR WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE LAKES.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...AREAS OF IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW, ESPECIALLY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY...IFR OR BELOW IN WIDESPREAD SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
MARINE
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS AND DIMINISHED WAVE ACTION
THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN WIND, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE NEXT PERIOD OF MORE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, PRODUCING HIGHER END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THAT PEAK FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ON LAKE
ONTARIO.
OF NOTE...MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS ARE NOW
ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE FORECAST.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...THOMAS/TMA
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/TMA
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/TMA
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