566
FXUS61 KBUF 022348
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
648 PM EST MON FEB 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED SCATTERED FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST
THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NY, WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.
2) WIDESPREAD SNOW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY
FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
3) BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND WITH DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, BUT WILL INTRODUCE
SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR ALOFT AND ALLOW FOR A VERY LIMITED LAKE
RESPONSE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, WHICH CONTINUES
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
OFF LAKE ERIE...LAKE ICE CONTINUES TO THICKEN, AND IS LIKELY TO THE
POINT OF MINIMAL THERMAL RESPONSE FROM THE LAKE. FRICTIONAL
CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE
COMBINED WITH THE UPTICK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT A
FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINOR,
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...THE LAKE RESPONSE TONIGHT WILL MAINLY FOCUS ON
THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE BORDER ACROSS PRINCE EDWARD POINT, WITH A
FEW FLURRIES OR SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
JEFFERSON COUNTY. TUESDAY, A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGH THE MORNING AND MIDDAY ACROSS THE
THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION, THEN MOVE SOUTH ACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY TO
THE TUG HILL PLATEAU BY EARLY EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS
FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST. LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND A MOBILE BAND
SHOULD KEEP ACCUMULATIONS LIMITED TO 1-2" THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
A SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CAUSE THE
ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND TO SHIFT SOUTH TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE. WHERE IT WILL THEN BREAK APART INTO MULTIPLE
STRANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS, ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE OF THE
LAKE. DUE TO LIGHT WINDS, EXPECT THE GREATER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
AND CORRESPONDING IMPACTS TO LIE CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL JUT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY, SUPPORTING A LAKE EFFECT TO STRENGTHEN AS WELL AS
MIGRATE EASTWARD TOWARDS OSWEGO COUNTY. A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT THE BAND NORTH, TOWARDS WATERTOWN THURSDAY NIGHT,
THOUGH DUE TO SOME WARMING ALOFT, ACTIVITY WILL PETER OUT.
THE OSCILLATING SNOW BAND WILL SUPPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW
INCHES FROM THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WIDESPREAD SNOW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS
LIKELY FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT POTENT, DEEP 500MB TROUGH WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE A MATURING
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND, SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT TO PASS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE LATE
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM'S ARRIVAL, WIDESPREAD SNOW IS FORECASTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM, EXPECT A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL
REGION WIDE, WITH A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM, THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHTENING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT
WIND GUSTS OF 30-35MPH, AND THUS RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES FRIDAY NIGHT. SPEAKING OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
DEVELOP AND LINGER SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO, WHERE ANOTHER SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL. THIS BEING SAID, THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY
WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE AVAILABILITY OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE, WHERE
AS OF THIS CIRCUMSTANCE, MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO, AND THEREFORE RESULT IN A DIMINISHED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW RESPONSE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND WITH
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LIKELY.
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND, THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL LIE ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS, WHICH WILL BE IN THE MIDST OF
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. AS SUCH, ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD
AIR MASS OF AROUND -25C AT 850MB WILL SLIDE ACROSS MUCH OF NEW YORK
STATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH ON
SUNDAY. OVERALL THIS WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE TO
PLUMMET BACK TOWARDS THE SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY, AND SLIGHTLY WARM
INTO THE LOW TEENS BY SUNDAY. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED EARLIER IN KEY
MESSAGE 2, BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY COMBINED
WITH THE SINGLE DIGIT READINGS WILL SUPPORT FRIGID WIND CHILL VALUES
TO WARRANT A COLD WEATHER HEADLINE.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. THIS MAY GENERATE A FEW SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE
TUESDAY. SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
EXPAND NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO NORTH OF KART TUESDAY MORNING,
THEN MOVE SOUTH ACROSS KART TO THE TUG HILL REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AREAS OF IFR VSBY.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR IS POSSIBLE AT KJHW THIS EVENING AS SNOW MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL USHER IN ANOTHER
PERIOD OF STRATUS, WITH MVFR CIGS BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. SOME SPOTTY IFR CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH LOCAL IFR
POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AREAS OF IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW,
ESPECIALLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY...IFR OR BELOW IN WIDESPREAD SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
SATURDAY...AREAS OF IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
MARINE
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS AND DIMINISHED WAVE ACTION
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN WIND, WITH BORDERLINE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON LAKE ONTARIO.
THE NEXT PERIOD OF MORE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, PRODUCING HIGHER END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THAT PEAK FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ON LAKE
ONTARIO.
OF NOTE...MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS ARE NOW
ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE FORECAST.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EAJ/HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/HSK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
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