540
FXUS61 KBUF 030645
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
145 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW RETURNS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.
2) LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR FRIDAY WITH A PASSING CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT, FOLLOWED BY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
3) WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND AS ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW RETURNS TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. THE FRONT HAS LIMITED MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH, BUT WILL INTRODUCE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND ALLOW FOR A
LIMITED LAKE RESPONSE TODAY, WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
OFF LAKE ERIE...LAKE ICE CONTINUES TO THICKEN, AND IS LIKELY TO THE
POINT OF MINIMAL THERMAL RESPONSE FROM THE LAKE. FRICTIONAL
CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE
COMBINED WITH THE UPTICK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT A
FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE
TODAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINOR, GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...THE LAKE RESPONSE THIS MORNING WILL MAINLY FOCUS
ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE BORDER ACROSS PRINCE EDWARD POINT, WITH
A FEW FLURRIES OR SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS JEFFERSON
COUNTY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGH
MIDDAY ACROSS THE THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION, THEN MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
JEFFERSON COUNTY TO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU BY THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW VEERS FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST. LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND A
MOBILE BAND SHOULD KEEP ACCUMULATIONS LIMITED TO 1-2" TODAY.
A SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT WILL CAUSE THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO SHIFT SOUTH TO THE SOUTHEASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
SHORELINE, BREAKING INTO MULTIPLE STRANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS,
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE OF THE LAKE. DUE TO LIGHT WINDS,
EXPECT THE GREATER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND CORRESPONDING
IMPACTS TO LIE CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL JUT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY, SUPPORTING A LAKE EFFECT TO STRENGTHEN AS WELL AS
MIGRATE EASTWARD TOWARDS OSWEGO COUNTY. A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT THE BAND NORTH, TOWARDS WATERTOWN THURSDAY NIGHT,
THOUGH DUE TO SOME WARMING ALOFT, ACTIVITY WILL PETER OUT.
THE OSCILLATING SNOW BAND WILL SUPPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW
INCHES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR FRIDAY WITH A PASSING
CLIPPER SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT, FOLLOWED BY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
ON FRIDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH OVER
THE REGION WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SAME
TIME A SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE REGION. OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC LOW, SNOW WILL
START TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY, WITH
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE LATER EVENING HOURS, A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL OF A FEW
INCHES IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY, WITH SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS RECEIVING MORE SNOWFALL. WINDS WILL ALSO START TO INCREASE
ON FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION TIGHTENS,
WITH WINDS CONTINUING WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS. THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING
WINDS AND SNOW WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND
REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO LAKE ENHANCED AND THEN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH MOSTLY
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA, LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST
THE LONGEST FOR AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME
UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS TO LAKE HURON AND THE GEORGIAN BAY. WHILE SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE FEW INCH RANGE, GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY, BOTH IN AREAS THAT
IT WILL BE SNOWING, AND ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE A
FRESH FEW INCHES OF SNOW FELL FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE
REGION.
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY, ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS
WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION, STARTING EARLY SATURDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY WARM SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COLDEST ON SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP DOWN TO THE
NEGATIVE TEENS AND LOW SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION WILL GENERATE SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS EAST EAST AND NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE TODAY. SOMEWHAT
MORE ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXPAND NORTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO NORTH OF KART THIS MORNING, THEN MOVE SOUTH ACROSS KART
TO THE TUG HILL REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AREAS OF IFR
VSBY.
A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRATUS, WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. SOME SPOTTY IFR CIGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS MORNING .
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH LOCAL IFR
POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AREAS OF IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW,
ESPECIALLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY...IFR OR BELOW IN WIDESPREAD SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
SATURDAY...AREAS OF IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
MARINE
A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH
SOME INCREASE IN WIND, WITH BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON LAKE ONTARIO.
THE NEXT PERIOD OF MORE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, PRODUCING HIGHER END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THAT PEAK FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ON LAKE
ONTARIO.
OF NOTE...MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS ARE NOW
ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE FORECAST.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EAJ/HITCHCOCK/SW/TMA
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/HSK/TMA
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/TMA
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