099
FXUS61 KBUF 041118
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
618 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
2) LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR FRIDAY WITH A PASSING CLIPPER AND
COLD FRONT.
3) WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND AS ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW WILL CONTINUE
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
LIGHT TO BRIEF MODERATE LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, MAINLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH A
MOSTLY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA, LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF
LAKE ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PASS OVER THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF LAKE ERIE AS UPSLOPING DEVELOPS
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH. BRIEF DRY AIR INTRUSIONS
AND WEAK RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE SNOW TO WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE AT
TIMES AS WELL DURING THIS PERIOD, PARTICULARLY LATER IN THE DAY
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS FORECASTED SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE THE GREATEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED IN WAYNE AND
NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY MINOR
WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS. SNOWFALL OF AN INCH OR
SO WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ERIE WHERE
UPSLOPING IS MORE FAVORABLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR FRIDAY WITH A PASSING
CLIPPER AND COLD FRONT.
ON FRIDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH OVER
THE REGION WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SAME
TIME A SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE REGION. OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC LOW, SNOW WILL
START TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY,
WITH MAINLY LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE LATER EVENING HOURS, A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVIER SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 4
INCHES IS POSSIBLE, WITH SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS RECEIVING THE
HIGHER END OF THAT SNOWFALL RANGE. WINDS WILL ALSO START TO INCREASE
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION
TIGHTENS, WITH WINDS CONTINUING WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS. THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING
WINDS AND SNOW WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND REDUCTIONS
TO VISIBILITY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF UPTICK IN WINDS ALONG AND RIGHT
BEHIND THE STRONG FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE
REGION.
THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DANGEROUS COLD THIS WEEKEND,
WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA. A ROUND OF
ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
PLUNGING DOWN TO -23C TO -28C. BITTER TEMPERATURES AND BRISK WINDS
WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
TERMINALS, MAINLY MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE DAY TODAY
WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AT TIMES BRINGING FLIGHT LEVELS
TO VFR AS A WEAK RIDGE QUICKLY CROSSES THE AREA TODAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. ANY MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD SCATTER OUT THIS MORNING. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, WHERE
MVFR CIGS/VSBY WILL LINGER WITHIN THE SNOW, WITH SOME BRIEF IFR
CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS WELL.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE EVENING,
AND EXPAND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE PASSING TROUGH
AND OFF THE LAKE WILL BRINGS CIGS DOWN TO LOW END MVFR AND PERIODS
OF IFR FOR ALL TAF SITES. AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN CAN EXPECT
MORE PERSISTENT IFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL LOWERS VSBYS AND CIGS AT TIMES, POSSIBLY
DOWN TO IFR.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO, OTHERWISE VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...IFR OR BELOW IN WIDESPREAD SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AREAS OF IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MARINE
THE NEXT PERIOD OF MORE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, PRODUCING HIGHER END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THAT PEAK FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ON LAKE
ONTARIO. THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD, AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
FREEZING SPRAY ON LAKE ONTARIO AS WELL.
OF NOTE...MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS ARE NOW
ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE FORECAST.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ004-005.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SW/TMA
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
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