396
FXUS61 KBUF 042335
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
635 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES TO LAKE EFFECT LOCATION AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ONGOING LIMITED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
2) WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT,
WITH GUSTY WINDS SUPPORTING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND LIMITED
VISIBILITY.
3) LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
4) DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL VALUES RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A STRONG
INVERSION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AROUND 5K FEET, BUT A SUFFICIENTLY
DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE SHALLOW MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH THE INVERSION.
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY TEND TO WEAKEN AND
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE HIGHER
FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE ENCOURAGES MORE DIURNAL MIXING, BREAKING APART
THE SHALLOW BANDING STRUCTURES INTO OPEN CELLULAR CONVECTION.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AGAIN WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL MIXING. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT, BRINGING A MINOR UPTICK IN SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE AND
ASCENT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS WESTERN NY OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHRINK IN COVERAGE
AND GRADUALLY END FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY
AS A RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, DISRUPTING BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW AND INTRODUCING SHEAR TO THE PROFILE.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WILL BE IN THE DUSTING TO 2" RANGE IN MOST AREAS SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO, WITH A FEW ISOLATED 3" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
FLUFFY SNOW:WATER RATIOS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH GUSTY WINDS SUPPORTING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
AND LIMITED VISIBILITY.
WITHIN DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHING CENTERED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD, AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO, CANADA TOWARDS
NEW YORK STATE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT'S ARRIVAL, STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING, AND REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION WELL INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW WILL THEN PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT CORRESPONDING TO
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 5
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS CORRESPONDING TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EXITING
SURFACE HIGH AND THE INCOMING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN WINDS TO
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, FURTHER INCREASING WITH THE PASSAGE OF
AND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL PEAK
BETWEEN 35-40 MPH ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND 30-35 MPH
ELSEWHERE. THIS BEING SAID, EXPECT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND
REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SPILL ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WILL DROP
TOWARDS -23C TO -28C, WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LINGERING
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE OVERHEAD, SOME LIMITED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS SNOW WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO
THE CURRENT ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE MINOR.
KEY MESSAGE 4...DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL VALUES
RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA THIS
WEEKEND. ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES PLUNGING DOWN TO -23C TO -28C. BITTER TEMPERATURES AND
BRISK WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WITH A LARGER FOOTPRINT OF LIGHT
SNOW AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS INCLUDING KROC, KBUF, AND KIAG. SOME
WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP AT TIMES NEAR KJHW. THE
LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SHRINKING IN
COVERAGE AND ENDING FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND SOME HIGHER TERRAIN IFR IN THE MORNING WILL
IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR LATER IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR IN LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS AND BRIEF BURSTS OF
1/4SM +SN POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AREAS OF IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
MARINE
THE NEXT PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, PRODUCING HIGHER END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THAT PEAK FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY ON LAKE ONTARIO.
THE AIRMASS WILL BE VERY COLD, AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FREEZING
SPRAY ON LAKE ONTARIO AS WELL. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE LATER
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
OF NOTE...MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS ARE NOW
ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE FORECAST.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EAJ/HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...AR/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
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