614
FXUS61 KBUF 181947
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
247 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
OVERALL ICE ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN LOWERED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TODAY WITH RAIN, SNOW, AND FREEZING
RAIN.
2) ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO
ELEVATED FLOWS AND ICE JAMS.
3) ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LATER THIS WEEK
WITH PRIMARILY RAIN ACROSS WESTERN NY FRIDAY CHANGING OVER TO
LIGHT SNOWFALL FRIDAY NIGHT, POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TODAY WITH RAIN, SNOW, AND
FREEZING RAIN.
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A TIGHT NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS
WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION INTO THIS EVENING.
COLDER AIR WITHIN A MORE BACKED NORTHEAST FLOW SLOWLY SEEPING INTO
AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO, WITH TEMPERATURES JUST SNEAKING
DOWN TO FREEZING OR A DEGREE BELOW OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
OR SO. THE I-90 CORRIDOR CONTINUES TO BE THE ROUGH DIVIDING LINE
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE IS CONCERNED. AREAS SOUTH OF I-90
HAS BEEN ALL RAIN AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE FOR THE
DURATION OF THE EVENT. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR ICING THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONTINUES TO BE BETWEEN I-90 AND LAKE ONTARIO WITH
A WINTRY MIX, INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN. DUE TO THE ORIENTATION
OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT HOWEVER, SNOW (1-3") IS MORE FAVORED
NORTH AND EAST OF ROCHESTER. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE HIGHEST
IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
NIAGARA ESCARPMENT WITH THIS AREA SEEING ICE AMOUNTS UP TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR TREE DAMAGE AND
ISOLATED OUTAGES ON TOP OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. SOUTH OF THE
ESCARPMENT TO I-90 LESSER AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO TWO TENTH OF AN
INCH OF ICE LOOK REASONABLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL MAY
LEAD TO ELEVATED FLOWS AND ICE JAMS.
WARMTH WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL AVERAGE ONE HALF TO ONE INCH FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AVERAGING ONE QUARTER TO
A THIRD OF AN INCH. THE COMBINATION OF RAINFALL TODAY AND THE
UPCOMING RAINFALL ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED WARMER TEMPERATURES,
ENHANCING SNOWMELT WILL CONTINUE THE SLOW BREAKUP OF ICE ON AREA
WATERWAYS. THE SNOWMELT AND ICE BREAKUP SHOULD BE SLOW ENOUGH THAT
FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN LOW, EVEN WITH TODAY'S RAINFALL AND
THE EXPECTED RAINFALL FRIDAY. LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES
A FEW BUFFALO AREA CREEKS MAY RISE TO ACTION STAGE (10-30%
CHANCE), BUT LITTLE TO NO THREAT OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE
ANYWHERE. ICE JAM FLOODING ALSO REMAINS A LOW POSSIBILITY,
THOUGH THAWING DEGREE HOUR GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN BELOW
LOCAL THRESHOLDS WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID-FEBRUARY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LATER
THIS WEEK WITH PRIMARILY RAIN ACROSS WESTERN NY FRIDAY CHANGING
OVER TO LIGHT SNOWFALL FRIDAY NIGHT, POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO
THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT PACIFIC-BASED SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT EAST OF THE ROCKIES BY
THURSDAY, EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER SCALE TROUGHING PATTERN
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS WAVE WILL BRING
YET ANOTHER WEAKENING SFC LOW TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASED ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING
IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH.
PTYPES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS PROBLEMATIC WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
THERMAL PROFILES FAVOR ALL RAIN FOR WESTERN NY AND SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THERE IS SOME RISK FOR A
WINTRY MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN HERE AS WELL AS ACROSS THE SURROUNDING
LOWER ELEVATIONS, WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE TUG WILL ALSO BE MARGINAL AS FAR AS POTENTIAL ADVISORIES
ARE CONCERNED.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL WRAP IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS THE GENERAL
TROUGHING PATTERN CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD, WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SNOW AREAWIDE. 850MB TEMPS MAY ALSO DROP LOW ENOUGH BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING, WITH RAIN
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY, WHILE NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY, AND SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING WILL BRING A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLE SLEET.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL BE
KROC WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CONFIDENCE AT KIAG. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
KJHW AND KBUF WILL NOT HAVE FREEZING RAIN.
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE FORM OF SNOW, THOUGH PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
HEAVY...THIS AWAY FROM THE BETTER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING.
AS A SHORTWAVE RIPPLES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION PRECIPITATION WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE, BACK
TO MVFR TO VFR, WHILE CEILING HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR ACROSS
WNY, AND HIGHER TERRAIN IFR (KJHW)...WHILE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR. LIGHT RAIN AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FREEZING
RAIN ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS LOWERING TO
IFR/MVFR.
FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR WITH RAIN/SNOW LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN.
SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH SNOW LIKELY EAST OF BOTH LAKES. A
CHANCE OF SNOW ELSEWHERE.
MONDAY... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY
EAST OF BOTH LAKES.
MARINE
EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES IN PLACE THROUGH
THAT TIME FRAME. A SURFACE LOW WILL PASS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY WITH THE FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM, BRINGING RENEWED HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.
PLEASE NOTE...MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS
CONTINUE TO BE ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE
FORECAST.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ001>005-
010>012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ043-
044.
DISCUSSION...BROTHERS/TMA
AVIATION...THOMAS/TMA
MARINE...TMA
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