560
FXUS61 KBUF 190226
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
926 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THUNDERSTORMS AND FREEZING RAIN HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT OVER WESTERN NEW YORK GENERALLY FROM NIAGARA FALLS
SOUTHWARD.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FOG AND ELEVATED CONVECTION AFFECTING THE WESTERN NEW YORK
TONIGHT.
2) ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO
ELEVATED FLOWS AND ICE JAMS.
3) ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LATER THIS WEEK
WITH PRIMARILY RAIN ACROSS WESTERN NY FRIDAY CHANGING OVER TO
LIGHT SNOWFALL FRIDAY NIGHT, POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...FOG AND ELEVATED CONVECTION AFFECTING THE
SOUTHERN TIER THIS EVENING.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS NYS MESONET CAMERAS INDICATE FOG
HAS BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER THIS
EVENING. SNOW MELT, STRONG INVERSIONS, AND AN INABILITY OF
WARMER AIR TO MAKE PROGRESS INTO WNY AND MIX UP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR THIS PHENOMENON TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS THUS ISSUED FOR MOST OF WNY SOUTH OF THE
BUFFALO AREA (ALL OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN), AS AREAS FARTHER NORTH
SEEM POISED TO REMAIN GENERALLY WITH STRATUS RATHER THAN DENSE
FOG OVERNIGHT.
UPSTREAM RADAR OBSERVATIONS HAVE BECOME VERY INTERESTING THIS
EVENING AS CONVECTION HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER SW ONTARIO AND
EVEN OVER LAKE ERIE. THIS SEEMS TO BE TIED WITH AN AREA OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT THE HRRR IS LATCHING ONTO. WHILE MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY OVER SW ONTARIO SHOULD MOVE NE AND NOT AFFECT
OUR AREA, THE CONVECTION OVER LAKE ERIE AND THE IMMEDIATE AREAS
NORTH OF IT SEEMS POISED TO MOVE ACROSS INTO WESTERN NEW YORK
OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. RADAR INDICATIONS SEEM TO SHOW A COUPLE
OF MESOLOWS ARE DRIVING THIS ACTIVITY AND HARNESSING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. ONE OF THOSE IS SURGING NORTHEAST AND WON'T AFFECT
THE AREA. THE SECOND WILL DRIVE ESE-WARD AND AFFECT GENERALLY
AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NIAGARA FALLS TO GENESEO. THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES MODULATING
WHERE FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY VERSUS PLAIN
RAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL MAY
LEAD TO ELEVATED FLOWS AND ICE JAMS.
WARMTH WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL AVERAGE ONE HALF TO ONE INCH FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AVERAGING ONE QUARTER TO
A THIRD OF AN INCH. THE COMBINATION OF RAINFALL TODAY AND THE
UPCOMING RAINFALL ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED WARMER TEMPERATURES,
ENHANCING SNOWMELT WILL CONTINUE THE SLOW BREAKUP OF ICE ON AREA
WATERWAYS. THE SNOWMELT AND ICE BREAKUP SHOULD BE SLOW ENOUGH THAT
FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN LOW, EVEN WITH TODAY'S RAINFALL AND
THE EXPECTED RAINFALL FRIDAY. LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES
A FEW BUFFALO AREA CREEKS MAY RISE TO ACTION STAGE (10-30%
CHANCE), BUT LITTLE TO NO THREAT OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE
ANYWHERE. ICE JAM FLOODING ALSO REMAINS A LOW POSSIBILITY,
THOUGH THAWING DEGREE HOUR GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN BELOW
LOCAL THRESHOLDS WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID-FEBRUARY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LATER
THIS WEEK WITH PRIMARILY RAIN ACROSS WESTERN NY FRIDAY CHANGING
OVER TO LIGHT SNOWFALL FRIDAY NIGHT, POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO
THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT PACIFIC-BASED SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT EAST OF THE ROCKIES BY
THURSDAY, EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER SCALE TROUGHING PATTERN
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS WAVE WILL BRING
YET ANOTHER WEAKENING SFC LOW TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASED ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING
IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH.
PTYPES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS PROBLEMATIC WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
THERMAL PROFILES FAVOR ALL RAIN FOR WESTERN NY AND SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THERE IS SOME RISK FOR A
WINTRY MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN HERE AS WELL AS ACROSS THE SURROUNDING
LOWER ELEVATIONS, WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE TUG WILL ALSO BE MARGINAL AS FAR AS POTENTIAL ADVISORIES
ARE CONCERNED.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL WRAP IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS THE GENERAL
TROUGHING PATTERN CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD, WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SNOW AREAWIDE. 850MB TEMPS MAY ALSO DROP LOW ENOUGH BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT.
AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN FROM W TO E THROUGH THE
EVENING, LIKELY ENDING IN THE FORM THAT IS CURRENTLY FALLING AT
ALL SITES. A COHERENT STRATUS DECK WILL BE AROUND IN ITS WAKE,
SO ABUNDANT IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG
IN THE SOUTHERN TIER ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY, AN AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER SW ONTARIO
WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD KBUF TOWARD 04Z. THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO
BRING A PERIOD OF FZRA AND EVEN SOME THUNDER FOR A SHORT PERIOD
AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND DIVES ESE-WARD.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR. LIGHT RAIN AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FREEZING
RAIN ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS LOWERING TO
IFR/MVFR.
FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR WITH RAIN/SNOW LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN.
SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH SNOW LIKELY EAST OF BOTH LAKES. A
CHANCE OF SNOW ELSEWHERE.
MONDAY... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY
EAST OF BOTH LAKES.
MARINE
EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES IN PLACE THROUGH
THAT TIME FRAME. A SURFACE LOW WILL PASS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY WITH THE FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM, BRINGING RENEWED HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.
PLEASE NOTE...MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS
CONTINUE TO BE ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE
FORECAST.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ012-019>021-
085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ043-
044.
DISCUSSION...BROTHERS/FRIES/TMA
AVIATION...FRIES
MARINE...TMA
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